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RAMSES SLIDEDECK
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and
Sustainable Development for Cities
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigat...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
The RAMSES Slidedeck
The RAMSES Slidedeck is mea...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
The RAMSES Slidedeck II
The RAMSES Slidedeck is ...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
RAMSES Slidedeck III
SLIDEDECK INDEX:
- Introduc...
SlideDeck
INTRODUCTION – CITIES AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Citi...
Climate Change Impacts in Europe
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
The Arctic:
- T...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Urban Agglomeration Projections
Climate change i...
Local Level as a Driver
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Global phenomenon
Influe...
Due to the varying…
 severity and nature of
climate impacts between regions
 urban landscapes
Reconciling Adaptation, Mi...
SlideDeck
RESULTS AND TOOLS PRODUCED BY THE
RAMSES PROJECT
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development ...
All available on the
project website!
http://www.ramses-cities.eu/
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Deve...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
RAMSES – Toolbox and Training
Main results of th...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
RAMSES Handbook and Training
Package
Frames the ...
SlideDeck
UNDERSTANDING RISKS IN CITIES
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Is not just a function of hazard…
…also of socio-economic vulnerabilities
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainab...
In this phase of the process the idea is addressing the following questions:
- How is climate change going to affect my ci...
STEP I - Hazard and exposure
Identification of the key hazards that our city must face and the degree of its
exposure to t...
STEP I - Hazard and exposure
The following activities will be needed:
• Climate scenarios and projections at the local lev...
STEP II - Vulnerability assessment
Vulnerability refers to the propensity or predisposition of a given system to
be affect...
STEP II - Vulnerability assessment
The following activities will be needed:
• Definition of the data model and selection i...
STEP III - Risk definition
Recently and according to the latest IPCC 2014 definition, risk is
expressed as the function of...
STEP III - Risk definition
The following activities are needed:
• Description of the components
of risk and generating inf...
The climate risk evaluation methodology can be applied in all EU cities to identify
priorities for national and EU adaptat...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
References
RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods invent...
SlideDeck
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Adaptation options can be divided into three main categories:
Grey infrastructure corresponds to engineered physical inter...
1. Coping adaptation mostly means responding to the damage arising from a disaster
and recovering afterwards. Purely copin...
2. Incremental adaptation builds on existing adaptation measures and known
solutions by improving them, bit by bit, and in...
3. Transformative adaptation follows a broader and more systematic approach by
addressing the root causes of vulnerability...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Urban Planning Strategies
Urban planning as a cr...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Urban Planning Measures
Parks
Tree-Lined Streets...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Urban Planning Measures
Orientation and
Aspect R...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Planning and Implementation
Pathways
• Seek agre...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Adaptation Pathways Approach
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Vision Construction Methodology
1. City Vulnerab...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Evaluation of Adaptation Costs
Methodologically,...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
“ADAPTATION COST CURVES”
Adaptation Cost Curves ...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
References
RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic cost...
SlideDeck
HEALTH ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Climate change has already affected human health...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Climate Change as a Health Threat
Two crucial di...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Source: adapted from Barata et al. 2011, based o...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Heat Waves and Public Health
Recent heat-waves i...
European Cities in Action
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Source: http://climate...
SlideDeck
ESTIMATING THE HEALTH IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE (HEALTH
ASSESSMENT TOOL)
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and ...
 Cost of premature mortality
 Loss of welfare to society (through willingness to pay)
 Foregone income, capital formati...
Evaluation of the economic consequences of disease and injury resulting from climate-related health
outcomes
 Based on a ...
Pathway Overview
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Step 1:
Calculate
economic cost...
Step 1
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to h...
Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sus...
Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2:
Calculate cost of
adaptation to
avoid hea...
Step 1:
Calculate
economic costs
due to health
impacts of climate
change
Step 2:
Calculate cost of
adaptation to
avoid hea...
Before Starting: Scoping the Cost
Assessment
Geographical scope
All levels of application are possible (e.g. provincial, r...
Before Starting: Scoping the Cost Assessment
Health outcomes considered
Estimation of the impacts on health of climate cha...
Outputs of the Assessment Tool
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
 Total cost of h...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
References
RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment too...
References
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment too...
Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
References
RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods invent...
References
RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European cities
http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results...
RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change
http://www.ramse...
Contact us
The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programm...
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Slidedeck complete final

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The RAMSES Slidedeck is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders by introducing the main topics tackled in the RAMSES Project and raising awareness on crucial policy-relevant aspects of climate adaptation.

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Slidedeck complete final

  1. 1. RAMSES SLIDEDECK Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  2. 2. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities The RAMSES Slidedeck The RAMSES Slidedeck is meant to support cities (including municipal staff, policy makers and other stakeholders) to explain the importance of climate adaptation to different stakeholders by: - Introducing the main topics tackled in the RAMSES Project - Raising awareness on crucial policy-relevant aspects of climate adaptation Available for downloading and consulting on the RAMSES website! http://www.ramses-cities.eu/
  3. 3. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities The RAMSES Slidedeck II The RAMSES Slidedeck is divided by topic and can be used flexibly by different stakeholders including: • Municipal staff; • Policy makers; • Adaptation practitioners; • Researchers; • Etc. The slides are complemented by longer descriptions of the topics available in the „notes“ window. The original sources of the information are always referenced so that they can be easily consulted.
  4. 4. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities RAMSES Slidedeck III SLIDEDECK INDEX: - Introduction, cities and climate change - Results and tools produced by the RAMSES Project - Understanding Risks in Cities - Adaptation Options - Health Adaptation to climate change - Estimating the health impacts of climate change (Health Assessment Tool)
  5. 5. SlideDeck INTRODUCTION – CITIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  6. 6. Climate Change Impacts in Europe Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities The Arctic: - Temperature rise much greater than the global average - Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage - Decline in Greenland ice sheet - Decreased permafrost areas - Increased risk of biodiversity loss - Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil and gas resources Coastal Zones and Regional Seas: - Sea-level rise - Increase in sea surface temperatures - Increase in ocean acidity - Northward migration of fish and plankton species - Changes in phytoplankton communities - Increasing risk for fish stocks North-Western Europe: - Increase in winter precipitation and river flow - Increase in river flow - Northward migration of species - Decreased energy demand for heating - Increased risk of river and coastal flooding Mediterranean Region: - Temperature rise is greater than the European average - Decreased annual precipitation - Decreased annual river flow - Increased risk of biodiversity loss - Increased risk of desertification - Increased water demand for agriculture - Decreased crop yield - Increased risk of forest fires - Increased mortality from heat waves - Expansion of habitats for southern disease vectors - Decreased hydropower potential - Decreased summer tourism and potential increase in other seasons Northern Europe: - Temperature rise much greater than the global average - Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover - Increased river flows - Northward movement of species - Increased crop yields - Decreased energy demand for heating - Increased hydropower potential - Increased risk of damage from winter storms - Increased summer tourism Mountain Areas: - Temperature rise greater than the European average - Decrease in glacier extent and volume - Decrease in mountain permafrost areas - Upward shift of plant and animal species - High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions - Increased risk of soil erosion - Decrease in ski tourism Central and Eastern Europe: - Increased warm temperature extremes - Decreased summer precipitation - Increased water temperature - Increased risk of forest fires - Decrease in the economic value of forests Source: EEA, 2015e.
  7. 7. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Urban Agglomeration Projections Climate change is leading to changes in weather patterns and to an apparent increase in extreme weather events. Research conducted by RAMSES has shown:  A rise in the number, frequency and intensity of heat waves  An increase in the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon  Urban areas experience twice as many heat wave days as their rural surroundings  Towards the end of the century, the number of heat wave days is expected to increase by a factor of nearly ten (one month or more per year)  Increased mortality rates during heat waves (e.g 140% of heat-related excess mortality during the period from 1 to 19 August 2003).  Towards the end of the century, when cosidering the effect of climate change alone, PM10 concentrations are expected to rise by approximately 0.3 ug/m3 during the summer and to decrease by 1.1 ug/m3 during the winter.
  8. 8. Local Level as a Driver Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Global phenomenon Influenced by urban landscape Affecting regional climate patterns Frequency of hotter days and extreme rainfall or drought episodes Geography, environmental and social determinants, population density, degree of soil sealing, heat conserving urban materials, urban geometry and abundant heat sources Icons made by Eucalyp, Freepik and Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com
  9. 9. Due to the varying…  severity and nature of climate impacts between regions  urban landscapes Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Local Level as a Driver Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  10. 10. SlideDeck RESULTS AND TOOLS PRODUCED BY THE RAMSES PROJECT Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  11. 11. All available on the project website! http://www.ramses-cities.eu/ Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities RAMSES – Project Outcomes RAMSES‘ Outcomes – valuable collection of reports and resources: • Modeling climate projections and scenarios • Resilient architecture and infrastructure • Cost evaluation and benefits • Health costs evaluation • High-level vulnerability assessments • Vulnerability analyses in London, Antwerp and Bilbao (high spatial resolution) • Analysis of political frameworks and decision-making tools
  12. 12. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities RAMSES – Toolbox and Training Main results of the RAMSES project: HANDBOOK …summarizes and presents the RAMSES findings to municipal staff and policy makers …explains how to approach the adaptation process TRAINING PACKAGE …proposes concrete activities to operationalize the RAMSES findings into a support mechanism for local decision-making …explains how to approach the adaptation process SLIDEDECK …provides local municipal staff with a complete collection of resources to make the wide- reaching results of the project accesible and usable AUDIO-VISUAL GUIDANCE (www.on-urban-resilience.eu) …offers additional information on the different relevant sectors for adaptation planning by experts interviewed by the RAMSES Consortium on several occasions.
  13. 13. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities RAMSES Handbook and Training Package Frames the adaptation process through the Urban Adaptation Support Tool (UAST) – the official methodology used by the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative – which provides a step-by-step guidance through an adaptation planning and implementation cycle.
  14. 14. SlideDeck UNDERSTANDING RISKS IN CITIES Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  15. 15. Is not just a function of hazard… …also of socio-economic vulnerabilities Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Cities on Risk Source: IPCC WGII-AR5 (2014)
  16. 16. In this phase of the process the idea is addressing the following questions: - How is climate change going to affect my city? - Which areas and sectors of activity would potentially be more affected? - Which are more vulnerable? - To what extent is the city capable to cope with it and react? Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  17. 17. STEP I - Hazard and exposure Identification of the key hazards that our city must face and the degree of its exposure to those hazards. Exposure refers to the presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental services, resources, infrastructure, or economic assets, social, or cultural sites that could be affected or adversely impacted by an event. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  18. 18. STEP I - Hazard and exposure The following activities will be needed: • Climate scenarios and projections at the local level • Impacts modelling and local studies (hazard analysis) • Threshold definition • Identify/localise the receptor of the impact (exposure) Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  19. 19. STEP II - Vulnerability assessment Vulnerability refers to the propensity or predisposition of a given system to be affected by a threat. The vulnerability of a territory depends on the sensitivity or susceptibility to damage and the ability of such territory to cope and adapt.  Sensitivity or susceptibility is the degree in which a system or specie is affected in a positive or negative way by the variability of the climate variables.  Adaptive capacity makes reference to the capacity of socio-ecological systems, institutions, human beings and whatever other organism to adapt to the potential damages of climate change, seize opportunities or respond to its consequences. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, adaptive capacity) Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  20. 20. STEP II - Vulnerability assessment The following activities will be needed: • Definition of the data model and selection indicators for the evaluation of sensitivity and adaptive capacity • Aggregation of indicators and results of vulnerability assessment per every threat. (optional) • Formulation of vulnerability to a threat or hotspot detection Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  21. 21. STEP III - Risk definition Recently and according to the latest IPCC 2014 definition, risk is expressed as the function of hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Traditionally in risk assessment, the consequences have been valued according to economic estimates of damages and losses by an extreme event. However, the non-monetary evaluation of consequences may be considered. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Risk = f (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  22. 22. STEP III - Risk definition The following activities are needed: • Description of the components of risk and generating information • Construction of the model and risk analysis • Risk estimation Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology Hazard and Exposure Vulnerability assessment Risk Evaluation 2nd Step 3rd Step1st Step
  23. 23. The climate risk evaluation methodology can be applied in all EU cities to identify priorities for national and EU adaptation investments combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability information in order to:  Identification of risk priorities. A scoring methodology can be used to assess the relative priorities for cities in terms of most significant hazards, or whether to focus on measures to manage a hazard or increase vulnerability.  Integration of exposure, vulnerability and hazard datasets to evaluate risks;  Identification of sets of measures This methodology is used to identify risk and combined risks for e.g. heat-waves, droughts and floods (fluvial, coastal or pluvial) Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Risk Analysis Methodology
  24. 24. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities References RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods inventory for infrastructure assessment http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D3.1: High level quantified assessment of key vulnerabilities and priority risks for urban areas int he EU http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D4.2: Agglomeration-scale urban climate and air quality projections http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D4.3: Urban adaptation effects on urban climate http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in-europe- from-climate-change WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance http://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans
  25. 25. SlideDeck ADAPTATION OPTIONS Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  26. 26. Adaptation options can be divided into three main categories: Grey infrastructure corresponds to engineered physical interventions to make the city more resilient to extreme events (e.g., dykes, water tanks, etc.), Green and blue infrastructure makes the city more resilient and achieves sustainability through the maintenance, restoration and insertion of nature into urban spaces (e.g., greenways, open spaces, greenbelts, urban green spaces, cultural landscapes etc.), thereby improving wellbeing and the environmental conditions of urban areas, Soft measures are those that facilitate the implementation of “grey” and “green” measures and include the design and application of policy procedures, such as: land-use controls, information dissemination, economic incentives to reduce vulnerability, and measures that try to avoid mal-adaptation. These measures can be perceived as “success factors” for an effective implementation of an adaptation plan. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Adaptation Options
  27. 27. 1. Coping adaptation mostly means responding to the damage arising from a disaster and recovering afterwards. Purely coping approaches bring short-term benefits that decrease to zero with each new disaster. They therefore imply high costs over time. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Adaptation Options
  28. 28. 2. Incremental adaptation builds on existing adaptation measures and known solutions by improving them, bit by bit, and increasing their capacity to avoid damage under future levels of risk. Incremental approaches work effectively up to certain risk levels. Benefits level off over time and higher risk levels will require additional coping measures. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Adaptation Options
  29. 29. 3. Transformative adaptation follows a broader and more systematic approach by addressing the root causes of vulnerability to climate change. These are often the result of human actions such as settling in risk-prone areas, inadequate building design or other behaviors that aggravate the impact of climate change (EEA, 2016). Transformative approaches need some time and efforts at the beginning, but then benefits increase and are stable. Very little coping is needed to buffer extremely high risk levels. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Adaptation Options
  30. 30. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Urban Planning Strategies Urban planning as a crucial element for improving urban space: - Quality - Livability - Vitality - Attractiveness - Effectiveness Icon made by Zlatko Najdenovski from www.flaticon.com
  31. 31. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Urban Planning Measures Parks Tree-Lined Streets Green Facades and Green Roofs Icons made by Zlatko Najdenovski and Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  32. 32. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Urban Planning Measures Orientation and Aspect Ratio (H/W) Finishing Materials Citizens’ Behavior Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  33. 33. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Planning and Implementation Pathways • Seek agreements with stakeholders • Identify and make use of entry points for adaptation • Timeline and timeframe of adaptation options • Definition of adaptation pathways Implementation • Identifying key instruments for adaptation • Mainstreaming adaptation in existing instruments • Developing new instruments if needed STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
  34. 34. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Adaptation Pathways Approach
  35. 35. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Vision Construction Methodology 1. City Vulnerability: Framework description in order to identify: Hotspots/key problems/challenges related to the city functions/functionalitie s (beyond impacts) 2. Vision: Framework of generic visions and elements combined in order to convert previous hotspots into positive statements about the future resilient city 3. Backcasting: To detect triggers of change: conditions for reaching the future city vision
  36. 36. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Evaluation of Adaptation Costs Methodologically, there are different ways of evaluating adaptation options and their costs. They offer different ways of comparing the above-listed parameters: •ACCs are given by the cost-benefit ratio as a function of averted loss. Measures with cost-benefit ratio less than 1 have an economic benefit (Haas et al., 2009). The decision maker can read the ACCs by balancing the cost-benefit ratio and the overall averted loss. Adaptation Cost Curves (ACCs) •Optimal adaptation minimizes the total costs, i.e. the sum of adaptation costs and residual loss. It can be assumed that more effective measures are more costly. In addition, more effective measures lead to smaller residual loss. In combination, the total costs should exhibit an optimum. 2. Optimal Adaptation •While, by definition, any adaptation action should lead to reduced expected loss, generally, an investment (and maintenance) is required. Amortization describes the point in time when both balance each other. 3. Amortization
  37. 37. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities “ADAPTATION COST CURVES” Adaptation Cost Curves (ACCs) have been proposed as a tool to assist decision- makers in understanding adaptation options in terms of costs and benefits. ACCs are obtained by plotting the cost-benefit ratio as a function of the averted loss (benefit) for each adaptation measure. Thus, in order to generate ACC, a set of key quantities is necessary, namely, the expected loss, the averted loss (the residual loss is given by the expected loss minus the averted loss), and the adaptation costs.
  38. 38. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities References RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European cities http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D 5.3: Adaptation Cost Curves http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016
  39. 39. SlideDeck HEALTH ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  40. 40. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Climate change has already affected human health over the last decades, directly by changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, rising sea levels and more frequent extreme events); indirectly by disrupting basic determinants of health like safe drinking water, clean air and food security and quality; and also by shifting patterns of disease vectors and other effects in disease transmission Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  41. 41. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Climate Change as a Health Threat Two crucial dimensions: Risk of climate change on critical infrastructure vital for public health Climate change as stressor to current health dynamics Icons made by Vectors Market and Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  42. 42. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Source: adapted from Barata et al. 2011, based on multiple sources Health Effects Drivers Health outcomes Impact Rationale Temperature extremes Cardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity, heat exhaustion, etc. Urban heat island effect Weather extremes (wind, storms, floods) Mortality and morbidity from drowning, trauma, infectious diseases, long-term mental health issues, etc. Population density, soil sealing, placement. Drought Malnutrition, etc. Ambiguous Water quality Water-borne diseases, including diarrheal illnesses, etc. Wastewater and effluents Air quality Cardiorespiratory mortality and morbidity, etc. Pol. sources, Pop. density Aeroallergens Allergies, asthma, etc. Ambiguous Vectors Vector-borne diseases (e.g. Dengue, Malaria, etc.) Limited breeding in general Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  43. 43. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Heat Waves and Public Health Recent heat-waves in Europe have led to a rise in related morbidity and mortality …but the adverse health effects of hot weather and heat-waves are largely preventable, e.g. though:  health system preparedness coordinated with meteorological early warning systems  timely public and medical advice  improvements to housing and urban planning HEAT-HEALTH ACTION PLAN Factors affecting behaviour Physical or cognitive impairment, Psychiatric illness, Infants Increased heat gain Exercise, outdoor activity, medications Factor influencing cardiac output Cardiovascular diseases, medications Factors reducing plasma volume Diarrhoea, pre-existing renal or metabolic disease, medications Factors affecting sweating Dehydration, ageing, diabetes, scleroderma, cystic fibrosis, medications 36,1- 37,8 °C Source: WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  44. 44. European Cities in Action Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Source: http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/tools/urban-adaptation Key interventions:  Emergency preparadness and response management  Strengthening health systems to prevent and treat diseases  Preventive measures:  Safer housing  Flood protection  Vector control  Improved surveillance  Early warning information systems  Community-based disaster risk reduction
  45. 45. SlideDeck ESTIMATING THE HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (HEALTH ASSESSMENT TOOL) Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities
  46. 46.  Cost of premature mortality  Loss of welfare to society (through willingness to pay)  Foregone income, capital formation  Cost associated to morbidity  Full income approach  COI – Cost of Illness: Captures costs related to a case of the outcome(s) considered.  Main categories of economic evidence relevant to health adaptation  Cost of inaction  Cost of adaptation  Benefits of adaptation There are two options to measure the costs of health damage from climate change: a) estimating the economy-wide health costs (with an integrated assessment tool) b) estimating the health costs for a part of the society (following "microeconomic" methods) The Economics of Health Adaptation Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Direct costs Indirect costs Intangible costs Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  47. 47. Evaluation of the economic consequences of disease and injury resulting from climate-related health outcomes  Based on a limited number of inputs (applicable also in settings of low data availability) The valuation methods are based on mainstream bottom-up techniques of a microeconomic character  That is, on aggregating partial estimates of the cost of increased morbidity and its consequences, and of the cost of increased premature mortality risk The resulting outputs are cost-effectiveness ratio and partial benefit-to-cost ratios  Provide estimates for advocacy by local governments and other stakeholders and early adaptation guidance Ultimately, this methodology is part of the comprehensive RAMSES toolkit for urban adaptation, with the overall goal of facilitating local engagement in adaptation planning, policy and implementation. Assessment Tool Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Download RAMSES Assessment tool http://www.ramses- cities.eu/index.php?eID=tx_nawsecuredl&u=0&file=fileadmin/fe_file_repository/06_Workpackage_6/Deliverable%206.2/RAMSES_tool.zip&t=1484320504&hash=c33547092c65 58db44b8a4be97a2787b04bf67e7 ! Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  48. 48. Pathway Overview Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Step 2: Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts Step 3: Estimate benefits of adaptation Step 4: Calculate and report indicators to support decision-making Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  49. 49. Step 1 Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Estimate cost due to premature mortality Estimate healthcare costs due to attributable illness Estimate cost of lost productive time associated to illness Calculate total annualized cost of health impacts of climate change Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change
  50. 50. Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Step 2 Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Step 2: Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts Lay out all planned interventions contributing to the minimization of health impacts of climate change Calculate total annualized costs of adaptation including one-off investments and annual costs Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts
  51. 51. Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Step 2: Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts Step 3 Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Step 3: Estimated benefits of adaptation Translate avoided mortality and mobidity into economic benefits (avoided costs) Estimate benefits of adaptation
  52. 52. Step 1: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Step 2: Calculate cost of adaptation to avoid health impacts Step 3: Estimate benefits of adaptation Step 4 Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Step 4: Calculate economic costs due to health impacts of climate change Cost-effectiveness of measures (health impacts averted per monetary unit) Cost-benefit ratio (savings through averted impats vs. Cost adaptation) Calculate and report indicators to support decision- making
  53. 53. Before Starting: Scoping the Cost Assessment Geographical scope All levels of application are possible (e.g. provincial, regional, etc.), however the main geographic scope of this tool is the local level Determinate the focus area: urban agglomerations or administrative boundaries? Population Decide whether you cosider the whole population or parts of it (and if relevant, the type of disaggregation) Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  54. 54. Before Starting: Scoping the Cost Assessment Health outcomes considered Estimation of the impacts on health of climate change or specific climate-related exposures is needed as basis for the cost assessment > guidance materials as well as national and subnational studies available Timeframe of analysis and discount rates Applicable prospectively and retrospectively (the start year for the damage cost assessment can be in the past, and the timeframe can lead up to the present or future) For prospective timeframes longer timeframes (e.g. by end of century) are more appropriate Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Icons made by Dimi Kazak and Madebyoliver from www.flaticon.com
  55. 55. Outputs of the Assessment Tool Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities  Total cost of health damage attributed to climate change for the selected outcomes (Average annual undiscounted health cost)  Health damage cost avertible through adaptation (Avertible average annual undiscounted health cost)  Benefit-cost ratio  Cost per case averted (Reflecting costs and health benefits over 15 years, or until 2100)  Cost per death averted (Reflecting costs and health benefits over 15 years, or until 2100) Icon made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
  56. 56. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities References RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting- health-in-europe-from-climate-change
  57. 57. References Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting- health-in-europe-from-climate-change WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance http://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans
  58. 58. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities References RAMSES Project – D1.3: Methods inventory for infrastructure assessment http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D3.1: High level quantified assessment of key vulnerabilities and priority risks for urban areas int he EU http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D4.2: Agglomeration-scale urban climate and air quality projections http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D4.3: Urban adaptation effects on urban climate http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in- europe-from-climate-change WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance http://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans
  59. 59. References RAMSES Project – D 5.2: Economic costs of climate change in European cities http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ RAMSES Project – D 5.3: Adaptation Cost Curves http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in- europe-from-climate-change WHO Europe- Heat-Health Action Plans Guidance http://www.euro.who.int/en/publications/abstracts/heathealth-action-plans
  60. 60. RAMSES Project – D6.2: Assessment tool to estimate the economic costs of health impacts of climate change http://www.ramses-cities.eu/results/ EEA- Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change EEA – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Report 2016 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-2016 WHO Europe- Protecting Health in Europe from climate change http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/pre-2009/protecting-health-in- europe-from-climate-change References
  61. 61. Contact us The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 308497 (Project RAMSES - Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities). The content in this leaflet reflects the author’s views. The European Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Reconciling Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development for Cities Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Research Domain: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities Telegraphenberg A 31 14473 Potsdam - Germany Prof. Dr. Jürgen Kropp E-Mail: nsp@pik-potsdam.de www.ramses-cities.eu/

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