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PechaKucha climate change fingerprint analysis

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A Star Wars teaching tribute to this publication: Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. - Nature 421: 37-42.

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PechaKucha climate change fingerprint analysis

  1. 1. climate change fingerprint Parmesan &Yohe 2003
  2. 2. fingerprint paradigm brilliant simplification
  3. 3. global change is correlational IPCC
  4. 4. actual temperature change IPCC 2014 values
  5. 5. predicted temperature change IPCC 2014 values
  6. 6. species change synthesis & consilience
  7. 7. two competing domains to infer species change biologists economists weak persistent important now
  8. 8. resolution test responses to climate change in two ways
  9. 9. biologists = meta-analysis
  10. 10. biologists = meta-analysis shifts in range or distributions 99 species of birds upwards 6.1km/decade
  11. 11. biologists = meta-analysis 172 species of plants & animals earlier by 2.3 days 677 species, 62% towards spring advancement
  12. 12. biologists = meta-analysis 893 species, only 27% had stable distributions 434 species, 80% shifted matching climate change
  13. 13. economists = probabilistic proportion of species that do not conform to climate change
  14. 14. binomial probability model economists = probabilistic
  15. 15. economists = probabilistic
  16. 16. economists = probabilistic
  17. 17. biologists economists weak persistent important now
  18. 18. 1570 species, 95% confidence of a global climate change fingerprint
  19. 19. the overall effects of most confounding factors decline with increasing numbers of species/systems studied
  20. 20. IPCC 2014 likelihood of staying below a specific temperature only below 4C is likely fingerprint of climate change viable approach

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