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Oct. 2014 civil beat poll governor's race

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Oct. 2014 civil beat poll governor's race

  1. 1. Sample'Size:'1,221 Margin'of'Error:'+/7'2.8% October'16'719,'2014 70%'Landlines,'30%'Cell'Phones Who'are'you'supporZng'in'the'race'for'Governor'between'Democrat'David'Ige,'Independent'candidate'Mufi'Hannemann,' Liberatarian'Jeff'Davis,'and'Republican'Duke'Ainoa'[candidate'name'order'rotated]? Governor Ige 40% Aiona 34% Hannemann 11% Davis 6% Undecided 8% No'maSer'which'candidate'you'support'for'Governor,'who'do'you'think'is'most'likely'to'win?' Gov_Predict Ige 48% Aiona 27% Hannemann 8% Davis 6% No'PredicZon 12% If#didn't#select#Ige#or#Aiona:'If'the'elecZon'for'Governor'were'only'between'David'Ige'and'Duke'Aiona'[candidate'name' order'rotated],'with'no'other'candidates,'what'would'you'do? Subsample'='311 Gov_Two'Candidates Ige 27% Aiona 26% Niether 22% Unsure 25%
  2. 2. Demographics Gender Male 47% Female 52% Refused 1% Age Under'50 26% 50'or'older 74% Ethnicity Caucasian 37% Japanese 29% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 10% Chinese 6% Hispanic/LaZno 1% Other/Mixed 9% Refused 0% County_CD Oahu_1 52% Oahu_2 17% Hawaii 15% Maui 11% Kauai 5% PoliZcal'OrientaZon Liberal 27% Moderate 31% ConservaZve 28% Unsure 14%
  3. 3. Party'ID Democrat 49% Republican 25% Independent 21% Unsure 5% Military'Family Yes 58% No 39% Refused 3% Union'Family Yes 35% No 61% Refused 4% Household'Income Less'than'$50,000 28% $50,000'7'$100,000 33% More'than'$100,000 19% Refused 19% CROSSTABS Governor Male Female Ige 41% 40% Aiona 33% 35% Hannemann 12% 11% Davis 6% 6% Undecided 7% 8%
  4. 4. Governor Under'50 50'or'older Ige 37% 44% Aiona 40% 34% Hannemann 10% 11% Davis 5% 4% Undecided 7% 7% Governor Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic/LaZno Ige 47% 49% 33% 28% 34% 36% Aiona 35% 24% 42% 48% 42% 43% Hannemann 9% 14% 11% 14% 7% 14% Davis 5% 8% 3% 3% 1% 3% Undecided 5% 5% 11% 8% 16% 5% Governor Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Ige 38% 39% 49% 40% 46% Aiona 37% 35% 31% 29% 24% Hannemann 11% 12% 10% 15% 9% Davis 5% 6% 8% 4% 13% Undecided 9% 8% 3% 12% 8% Governor Liberal Moderate ConservaZve Unsure Ige 69% 48% 16% 26% Aiona 8% 30% 65% 30% Hannemann 12% 11% 11% 13% Davis 6% 4% 5% 6% Undecided 4% 7% 3% 24% Governor Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Ige 66% 15% 24% 19% Aiona 13% 68% 47% 16% Hannemann 13% 9% 14% 2% Davis 3% 3% 10% 16% Undecided 6% 5% 6% 48%
  5. 5. Governor Military'Family Not'a'Military'Family Ige 43% 42% Aiona 35% 32% Hannemann 11% 12% Davis 4% 6% Undecided 7% 7% Governor Union'Family Not'a'Union'Family Ige 48% 41% Aiona 27% 37% Hannemann 13% 11% Davis 7% 4% Undecided 4% 8% Governor Less'than'$50,000 $50,000'7'$100,000 $100,000+ Ige 45% 46% 46% Aiona 31% 35% 29% Hannemann 12% 11% 13% Davis 8% 3% 4% Undecided 4% 4% 7% If#didn't#select#Ige#or#Aiona:'If'the'elecZon'for'Governor'were'only'between'David'Ige'and'Duke'Aiona'[candidate'name' order'rotated],'with'no'other'candidates,'what'would'you'do? Subsample'='311 Governor_TwoCandidates Hannemann Davis Undecided Ige 39% 26% 11% Aiona 32% 36% 9% Neither 23% 29% 15% Unsure 6% 8% 65%
  6. 6. If#Voted#in#Democra8c#Primary#Only:'In'the'DemocraZc'primary'for'Governor,'did'you'vote'for'David'Ige,'or'Neil' Abercrombie'[candidate'name'order'rotated]? Subsample'='814 Governor Ige Abercrombie Unsure Ige 53% 62% 16% Aiona 26% 13% 39% Hannemann 10% 15% 8% Davis 6% 3% 10% Undecided 5% 6% 26% Gov_Decide Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis Two'weeks 22% 17% 36% 30% One'month 21% 15% 30% 23% Month'plus 56% 66% 31% 32% Unsure 1% 2% 3% 15% Gov_Predict Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis Undecided Ige 83% 16% 32% 58% 26% Aiona 4% 64% 15% 8% 9% Hannemann 3% 2% 41% 12% 7% Davis 4% 7% 3% 15% 3% No'PredicZon 6% 11% 9% 7% 56%

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