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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 Methodology, Toplines, Demographics


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Civil Beat Poll August 2012 Methodology, Toplines, Demographics

  1. 1. ABOUT THE POLL: Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 1,483 likelyparticipants in the upcoming August election (i.e., registered voters whose votinghistories indicate that they are likely to vote in one of the August state-widePrimaries and/or the Oahu Mayorʼs race). Calls were made on the evenings ofJuly 31 – August 2, 2012, using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling).All results were balanced for age, gender, race/ethnicity, County, andCongressional District (within Oahu County).The sampling margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Themargin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results willbe within +/- 2.5 percent of the actual percentage in the full population of likelyvoters. Other sources of error, such as imperfect response rates, are alsocommon in public opinion research and may affect the results. The margin oferror for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of error of thecorresponding topline result.The sampling margin of error is larger for each electoral contest. The appropriatemargin of error is noted within the individual election reports.The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service consulting organization specializing in opinion research, electionmanagement, and communications. 1
  2. 2. In next weekʼs election, there will be primaries to choose the Democratic andRepublican Party nominees for Hawaiiʼs open U.S. Senate seat [and forCongress], [and also a contest to choose the Mayor of Honolulu.] How likely areyou to vote in next weekʼs election? Vote_Screen Already voted 30% Definitely voting 68% Might vote 2% Total 100%As you know, every Hawaii voter can choose between voting in the Democraticor Republican primary. The Democratic Senate primary is expected to be a closerace between Mazie Hirono and Ed Case. [The Democratic Congressionalprimary includes Tulsi Gabbard and Mufi Hannemann, and is also expected to beclose.] On the Republican ballot, there is a Senate contest between Linda Lingleand John Carroll thatʼs not expected to be as close. With this in mind, are youvoting in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither primary? Primary_Screen Democratic 80% Republican 15% Neither 2% Unsure 2% Total 100% 2
  3. 3. And now, a few questions about how you have made your decisions during thiscampaign season – where have you gotten helpful information about thecandidates and issues?...How much helpful information about the candidates and issues have you gottenfrom advertising – a lot, a little, or none at all? Ads A lot 25% A little 38% None 34% Unsure 3% Total 100%How much helpful information have you gotten from the candidate debates thathave recently been on TV – a lot, a little, or none at all? Debates A lot 40% A little 31% None 25% Unsure 4% Total 100%How much helpful information have you gotten from news coverage of thecandidates and issues – a lot, a little, or none at all? News A lot 40% A little 38% None 19% Unsure 3% Total 100% 3
  4. 4. How much helpful information have you gotten from endorsements of thecandidates by political groups and leaders – a lot, a little, or none at all? Endorsements A lot 12% A little 29% None 55% Unsure 4% Total 100%How much helpful information have you gotten from your own, independentresearch of the candidates – a lot, a little, or none at all? Own_Research A lot 58% A little 28% None 9% Unsure 5% Total 100%Now a quick question about President Obama—do you generally approve ordisapprove of his job performance as president? Obama Approve strongly 47% Approve somewhat 19% Disapprove somewhat 13% Disapprove strongly 18% Unsure 2% Total 100% Obama_Condensed Approve 66% Disapprove 31% Unsure 2% Total 100% 4
  5. 5. Demographics Gender Male 44% Female 56% Total 100% Age 18-29 4% 30-39 4% 40-49 12% 50-64 40% 65+ 40% Total 100% Ethnicity Caucasian 38% Japanese 24% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 10% Chinese 7% Hispanic/Latino 2% Other/Mixed 10% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 24% Moderate 39% Conservative 23% Unsure 14% Total 100% Party Democrat 51% Republican 16% Independent 27% Unsure 6% Total 100% 5
  6. 6. EducationNo degree 3%High School Degree 29%College Degree 41%Graduate Degree 28%Total 100% ReligionCatholic 27%Evangelical 12%Mormon 3%Other Christian 21%Buddhist 11%Other 6%None 20%Total 100% Military_FamilyYes 15%No 85%Total 100% Union_HousehodYes 32%No 68%Total 100% Relationship_StatusMarried 63%Civil Partnership 5%Single 12%Divorced/Separated 9%Widowed 10%Total 100% 6
  7. 7. Income_Household$50,000 or less 34%$50,000-$100,000 40%$100,000 or more 26%Total 100% Cong_District1 51%2 49%Total 100% CountyOahu 70%Hawaii 14%Maui 10%Kauai 6%Total 100% County_CDOahu 1 51%Oahu 2 18%Hawaii 14%Maui 10%Kauai 6%Total 100% 7