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2015 State of Small Business in Austin

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at City of Austin's Getting Connected event for small businesses at Palmer Events Center on 09/02/15.

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2015 State of Small Business in Austin

  1. 1. State of Small Business in Austin Economic Development Brian Kelsey, Principal Civic Analytics LLC civicanalytics.com @civicanalytics
  2. 2. 2 Presentation Overview • Review state of Austin economy • Review latest statistics on Austin small businesses released by the U.S. Census Bureau (Aug ’15) • Big splash from Kauffman • Growth challenges • Big ideas
  3. 3. 3 Austin economy has grown nearly 3x faster than US metro economy since recession ended 2009 -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP Growth (2013 Dollars) Austin MSA USA (Metro Portion) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Austin’s economy grew by 17% during 2009-2013, trailing San Jose (20%) but outpacing most other fast-growing peer regions around the country, including Portland (15%), Charlotte (14%), Nashville 13%), Denver (10%), Seattle (9%), and RDU (5%).
  4. 4. 4 National forecasting firms predicted “slow down” for Austin MSA economy in 2015…not so fast? Total nonfarm employment in Austin has increased by 22,100 jobs so far in calendar year ’15 (YTD July) and by 30,900 jobs compared to July 2014. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2013Jul 2013Aug 2013Sep 2013Oct 2013Nov 2013Dec 2014Jan 2014Feb 2014Mar 2014Apr 2014May 2014Jun 2014Jul 2014Aug 2014Sep 2014Oct 2014Nov 2014Dec 2015Jan 2015Feb 2015Mar 2015Apr 2015May 2015Jun 2015Jul Job Growth, 12-Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES). Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted.
  5. 5. 5 Austin Economy: Partying like it’s 1999 • Unemployment rate in Austin (city) was 3.0% in June—lowest period of unemployment since dot-com era. • Sales at Austin (city) businesses up nearly 5% in 2014 from 2013. • Real average wages in Austin MSA increased by 1.6% in 2014 and are finally nearly back to pre-dot-com bust level (> $54,000/yr). Sources: (1) Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS). Not seasonally adjusted. Data is for portion of Austin in Travis County. (2) Texas Comptroller. Gross sales, adjusted for inflation. (3) Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW). All industries, adjusted for inflation.
  6. 6. 6http://www.kauffman.org/microsites/kauffman-index/rankings/metropolitan-area
  7. 7. 7 Small business receipts topped $43 billion in 2012 Austin MSA 2011 2012 Change Growth Firms 31,118 32,451 1,333 4.3% Employment 228,414 238,285 9,871 4.3% Payroll $9.4 billion $9.9 billion $500 million 5.7% Receipts N/A $43 billion N/A N/A Small businesses (<100 employees) make up 92% of all firms, 35% of total employment, 29% of total payroll, and 20% of total receipts in Austin MSA. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (SUSB). Payroll adjusted for inflation (2012 Dollars).
  8. 8. Small Business (< 100 Emp), Austin MSA Employment % Total Emp Accommodation and Food Services 39,352 46% Professional, Scientific, Technical Services 32,510 47% Health Care and Social Assistance 28,416 34% Construction 21,233 55% Retail Trade 18,963 21% Admin/Support/WMRS 14,000 24% Manufacturing 11,778 31% Wholesale Trade 10,105 24% 8 Small business share of major industry sectors Small businesses (<100 employees) make up 92% of all firms, 35% of total employment, 29% of total payroll, and 20% of total receipts in Austin MSA. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (SUSB). Payroll adjusted for inflation (2012 Dollars).
  9. 9. 9 Employees Respondents Number* Difficulty Average Confidence Average 1 to 10 19 3.1 2.8 11 to 50 15 3.5 2.5 51 to 125 7 3.6 2.4 126 to 500 6 2.5 2.8 501+ 3 2.3 3.7 Total (Ans) 50 3.1 2.7 Source: ATC Tech Talent Employer Survey. Second-stage firms have reached a growth stage of $1M to $50M in receipts and 10 to 100 employees. For more on second-stage company research see Edward Lowe Foundation at http://edwardlowe.org/who-we-serve/secondstage. *Complete responses only (n = 50). Differences not statistically significant. 1 = Not difficult 2 = Somewhat difficult 3 = Difficult 4 = Very difficult 5 = Extremely difficult 1 = Not confident 2 = Somewhat confident 3 = Confident 4 = Very confident 5 = Extremely confident 0 = I don’t know Overall, how difficult is it to find qualified people to fill job openings at your company in Austin? How confident are you that Austin will be able to meet your future workforce demand? ATX Challenge: Growth-stage tech small businesses feeling disproportionate impact of hiring difficulty
  10. 10. 10 Big Ideas for Small Business in Austin • How can we leverage opportunity of Medical School and Innovation District for small businesses? • How can we facilitate participation of small businesses in education & workforce partnerships? • SBDP is one of best city-managed small business programs—what’s needed to keep pace w/ growth?
  11. 11. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108 Austin, Texas 78757 @civicanalytics http://civicanalytics.com

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