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(SACON) Dr. Monojit Choudhury - Evolution Of AI : Past, Present, Future

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AI has revolutionized almost every aspect of human lives - from healthcare to agriculture, and from fashion to political campaigns. There is a lot of excitement as well as fear around the future promises of AI. Yet, speculations abound that we are soon going to hit the third AI winter. In this talk, I will try to address some these questions and speculations. I will use examples from the domain of Natural language processing (NLP) - allegedly one of the hardest areas of AI - to illustrate what we have achieved, what are the promises offered by the recent advances in deep learning and why there are certain problems that are too difficult for any of the current approaches to handle. I will also highlight the non-AI aspects of AI system building (aka data creation and engineering) which are the unsung foundations of most practical AI systems.

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(SACON) Dr. Monojit Choudhury - Evolution Of AI : Past, Present, Future

  1. 1. SACON 2020 ARTIFICIAL 
 INTELLIGENCE
 Past, Present and Future Monojit Choudhury Microsoft Research Lab India monojitc@microsoft.com SACON SACON International 2020 India | Bangalore | February 21 - 22 | Taj Yeshwantpur
  2. 2. SACON 2020 I am a Homo sapiens, not a machine.
  3. 3. SACON 2020 “You want to know how super-intelligent cyborgs might treat ordinary flesh-and- blood humans? Better start by investigating how humans treat their less intelligent animal cousins. It’s not a perfect analogy, of course, but it is the best archetype we can actually observe rather than just imagine.”
  4. 4. SACON 2020 Agenda Deconstruction • What is AI? • What AI can (not) do today? • What’re the recent trends? • Critical Synthesis • Limitations of current techniques • What we should be worried about • The way forward
  5. 5. What is Artificial Intelligence?
  6. 6. SACON 2020 What is Artificial Intelligence? PREDICTIVE ADAPTIVE USES MACHINE LEARNING
  7. 7. SACON 2020 AI can … • Beat grandmasters in Chess, Backgammon and Go • Understand images as well as humans (computer vision) • Predict diseases from radiology images better than experts (- do-) • Transcribe speech as well as humans (speech recognition) • Beat world champions in Jeopardy (information extraction/ NLP) • Translate text as well as humans (machine translation/NLP)
  8. 8. SACON 2020 This, AI cannot solve মােদর গরব মােদর আশা, আ -মির বাংলা ভাষা Our pride our hope is our Bengali language Checked on 21st Feb 2020, International Mother Language Day
  9. 9. SACON 2020 The trophy did not fit in the suitcase. It was too big. It = trophy or suitcase? Source:The Winograd Schema Challenge This, AI cannot solve
  10. 10. SACON 2020 What can AI solve today? McKinsey Global institute analysis
  11. 11. SACON 2020 Unlike chess or backgammon, the rules of the LANGUAGE GAME are defined and redefined by the language users every time a game is played. Ludwig Wittgenstein (1889-1951)
  12. 12. SACON 2020 A brief history of AI 1950s – 1980s: Rule based systems Domain experts ruled the world 1990s – 2000s: Basic statistical learning Domain insights with some data 2000s – 2010s: Large scale supervised and semi-supervised learning Big data with some domain insight 2010s - : Deep learning ONLY DATA Domain knowledge Data
  13. 13. SACON 2020 DATA-driven AI DATA Training or Learning AI System or Model Users User interaction generates data that feeds back into the system.
  14. 14. SACON 2020 Learning
 Techniques DECISIONTREES REGRESSION SUPPORTVECTOR MACHINES MAXIMUM ENTROPY MODEL BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS …
  15. 15. SACON 2020 DEEP LEARNING
 THE ALCHEMY 
 OF THE 
 21ST CENTURY
  16. 16. SACON 2020 Benefits of 
 Deep 
 Learning
 
 
 Thinking fast
 vs. Thinking slow. Universal Approximator Great at Generalization No need to define features Accuracy does not seem to saturate
  17. 17. SACON 2020 March 2018
  18. 18. SACON 2020 When it comes to languages, AI is not inclusive ☹Languages sorted by amount of useful resources (and therefore, technology) English Arabic Chinese Spanish German French Japanese Korean Portuguese Hindi-Urdu Bengali Italian Greek Swedish English Chinese French Hindi-Urdu Telugu Project ELLORA: Enabling Low Resource Language Speakers
  19. 19. SACON 2020 Fairness 
 Accountability 
 Transparency 
 Explainability Data Privacy in the age of AI
  20. 20. SACON 2020 “What determines vulnerability to automation is not so much whether the work concerned is manual or white-collar but whether or not it is routine”
  21. 21. SACON 2020 Challenges of Human-Aware AI Systems Our Systems seem happiest • Either far away from humans • Or in an adversarial stance with humans Subbarao Kambhampati: AAAI 2018 Presidential Address
  22. 22. SACON 2020 A 20 year community roadmap for AI research in the US.August 2019
  23. 23. SACON 2020 Thank You
 
 monojitc@microsoft.com

  24. 24. What is Artificial Intelligence? A phrase that you use to attract your customers and funders Make sound like you work on cool, sexy and cutting-edge stuff Anything for which neither the developer nor the user understands what’s going on.
  25. 25. SACON 2020 How much DATA? POS Tagging (#annotated words) Machine Translation (#parallel sentences) Speech Recognition (hours of speech) 1950s-1980s Rule-based As much as needed for linguistic analysis 1990s-2000s Linguistic insights + Statistical 10k – 100k 10k-100k 10-100 2000s – 2010s Big data 100k – 100M 100k – 1M 1o-1000 2010s – Deep Learning 1M – 1B 1M – 1B 1000 – 10k Natural languages are fascinating. Adj Noun Verb Adj Natural languages are fascinating. ⾃自然语⾔言是迷⼈人的。 Na-tu-ral lan-gua-ges are fa-sci-na-ting
  26. 26. SACON 2020 “It is not difficult to devise a paper machine which will play a not very bad game of chess… Are there imaginable digital computers which would do well in the imitation game?" AlanTuring, 1950 “The biggest breakthrough in AI will be when computers can read and understand information like humans do." Bill Gates, 2017

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