Application of Trade Off Analysis (TOA) model in 3G potato project

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Study performed to explore the possibility to increase the production of high quality potato seed (HQS) through massive production with Aeroponics in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda - Kenya case study

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Application of Trade Off Analysis (TOA) model in 3G potato project

  1. 1. ByObado J, Labarta R and Thiele G 4th March 2010
  2. 2. Rapid growth in potato demand in kenyaLow quantity of high quality seed(requiredper year 66000 tones, available 89 tons)Limited capacity to produce high qualityseed(6 generation)Low yields from local varieties due to lowdisease resistance (LB, BW and virus)
  3. 3. Designed to increase production of highquality seed in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda(Ethiopia by extension)Reduce the period of seed production from 6to 3 generation (aeroponics)Increase the availability and accessibility ofhigh quality seed in the region throughmassive seed production through-aerponics/trained seed multipliers-PPP in seed production and capacity building
  4. 4. Demonstration of the benefits of using highquality seedIncrease the availability of High Quality Seedthrough massive production (PPP) (from >1%to 10%)Reduce cost of seed incurred by the farmer(seed = 30% of potato income)Increase adaptability through good potatomgt
  5. 5. To estimate the adoption of clean seed inKenyaTo determine whether subsidy is appropriateto increase adoption of HQS
  6. 6. The study has been done using data collectedfrom Kenya.System 1=Ordinary seed data (base system)System 2=Use of certified/clean seed
  7. 7. Certified seed: yield increase by 35% from theuse of initial ordinary seedWeights of seed type used are expected tochange with more land allocated forclean/certified seedIt assumed that land area under ordinary seedwill reduce by 20% hence increase area underclean/certified seed(20%)
  8. 8. Variable System 1 (Ordinary seed) System 2 (certified seed)Yield 8.93ton/ha 30% increaseCost 665.7USD/ha 812.14USD/haPrice 160USD 160USDCV 76.44% 76.44%Weight1 0.711 0.289Weight 2 0.5688 0.431
  9. 9. 88.7% of farmers would shift to clean seedand good potato management an increase in subsidy results in increasedadoption90008000700060005000PES4000300020001000 0 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 Adopt_A
  10. 10. About 66 acres will be used for clean seed 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 PES 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 Eserv_A
  11. 11. Through use of certified seed and properpotato management, farmers would report anincome of 1,543USD/ha (352USD more) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 PES 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 IncHa_A
  12. 12. Case 1: CVs is fixed the same for the twosystemsCase 2: CV increases in system 2 by 20%
  13. 13. Adoption rate 82% from 89%Land under clean seed reduces to 62 from 66acresIncome per ha reduces from 1543 to1408USD
  14. 14. More analysis will be done using differentregions and systemsDifferent countries’ data be analyzed in detail

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