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The Automotive Revolution - Autonomous, Connected, Electrified and Shared

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Chris Jones, Chief Analyst Canalys, presents at CILT International Convention 2018 in Wroclaw

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The Automotive Revolution - Autonomous, Connected, Electrified and Shared

  1. 1. ciltinternational.org 1 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Wroclaw | 3 – 6 June 2018 Chris Jones Chief Analyst, Canalys The automotive revolution – autonomous, connected, electrified and shared
  2. 2. ciltinternational.org 2 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Continued urbanization and more megacities More than 1.3 million roads deaths every year Poor air quality and traffic congestion Many new ways to use, own and share vehicles Young people are not rushing to get a driver’s license Consumers want constant connectivity New energy vehicles Smart city initiatives Global megatrends
  3. 3. ciltinternational.org 3 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Connected Autonomous ShareableElectric Future vehicles will be:
  4. 4. ciltinternational.org 4 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Source: SAE, NHTSA and Canalys levels of autonomy definitions, February 2018 Level 1 Driver assistance: Speed or lane position Level 2 Occasional self-driving: Speed and lane position Level 3 Limited self-driving: Machine-to- human handover Level 4 Full self-driving under certain conditions: Geo-fenced Level 0 No automation Level 5 Full self-driving under all conditions: No human driver Rising levels of autonomy WE ARE HERE
  5. 5. ciltinternational.org 5 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution So when will level 4 & 5 arrive? 2019 From 20212018 Robotaxis will operate in every city, moving people & things, 24x7x365
  6. 6. ciltinternational.org 6 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Very low volumes Robotaxi pilots Few cities Delayed plans Cancelled projects Technology Regulation Legislation Insurance Economics Infrastructure Geo-fencing Trust Vehicle ownership Car park Now for the reality check…
  7. 7. ciltinternational.org 7 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Incidents affect our trust in the tech
  8. 8. ciltinternational.org 8 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica AVs ordered last week AVs drive 25,000 miles a week, over 5 million in total, at six US locations, including driverless, plus at proving grounds and in simulation Vision system plus radar and lidar Radar Radar and lidar Waymo’s expanding fleet 20,000 Jaguar i-Pace will be delivered from 2020, with autonomous capabilities
  9. 9. ciltinternational.org 9 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Rotating, reclining seats AI co-pilot Retractable controls More spacious for riders Vehicle availability dial The interior, reimagined Multimedia experience
  10. 10. ciltinternational.org 10 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Daimler Scania Volvo TrucksOTTO PACCAR Increase driver productivity Safer driving Platooning will save fuel Collaborative driving Faster delivery, more trips More trips = more $ Better driver conditions Fill the driver shortage void Advanced V2X connectivity Data collection to the cloud Easier to manage fleet More sensors, more intelligent Autonomy to transform trucking Tesla
  11. 11. ciltinternational.org 11 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Local MotorsEasy MileAURO navya Next Last/first mile convenience Safe, quiet, small, electric Modular, versatile designs Decreases urban traffic Predictable demand (app) No set route or timetable Higher occupancy rates Fill the driver shortage void Advanced V2X connectivity Data collection to the cloud Easier to manage fleet More sensors, more intelligent Autonomous shuttles are here
  12. 12. ciltinternational.org 12 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution “e-Palette Alliance will leverage Toyota’s Global Mobility Services Platform to develop advanced vehicle and related mobility services for business applications,” Toyota, CES 2018 Toyota’s mobility vision Source: Toyota, CES 2018
  13. 13. ciltinternational.org 13 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Electrification Battery factory OTA updates Direct sales Launch events No marketing Longer range Exterior design Large touch display Ludicrous mode Pre-orders/deposits AutoPilot Tesla’s influence on the industry
  14. 14. ciltinternational.org 14 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution VW is moving forward Common, all-electric platform, a new design, spacious interiors and compact exteriors. New OS for fast software updates/upgrades. Long range with fast charging. Under Audi’s direction, a VW Group-wide self-driving system is being made for post-2021
  15. 15. ciltinternational.org 15 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution OEMs shifting to an EV strategy
  16. 16. ciltinternational.org 16 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Record EV sales, but still <2% 0 250 500 750 Other USA Europe Japan China 2017 2016 +150% +73% +39% +27% +133% Units (Thousand) WW plug-in car sales 2017: 1.2m, 57% growth. <2% of totalChina <5% of PEVs from foreign brands, Tesla Model X leading foreign PEV. 10% vehicle production target in 2019. Europe 50% of new cars in Norway. Incentives and cheap power. ICE vehicle sales bans planned in many countries. US Tesla Model 3 leading PEV, 45% of its deliveries in Q1. California sets zero- emission targets.
  17. 17. ciltinternational.org 17 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Ride-sharing innovation Location Social Payment Service options Ride- sharingYida o 3 2 4 Summoning Route planner Proximity Arrival time known Driver/passenger peer ratings Instant quote Surge pricing Billing/receipts Vehicle class Carpooling 1 Managing an all-EV robotaxi fleet will be complex
  18. 18. ciltinternational.org 18 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Connected vehicles, inside & out Within the vehicleTo the outside world Live traffic, maps, parking and POI information Cellular V2X communication Autonomous and collaborative driving OTA software updates Smart city integration Fleet management Collaborative, comfortable workspace Connectivity for all passengers Commerce from vehicle LBS and live POI information Music/video streaming and video calling Browsing, apps, games and AR Entertainment and productivity user experiencesConnectivity to improve the on-road experience Needs fast, secure, reliable, ubiquitous connectivity (5G)
  19. 19. ciltinternational.org 19 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Multi-modal transport Clean air, quiet vehicles Outdoor leisure space Mix of residential, commercial and tourist buildings Wider sidewalks, bike lanes, less road A new urban design
  20. 20. ciltinternational.org 20 International Convention 2018 Wroclaw | Poland Linking CEE to the World | Impact of the Electric Car Revolution Thank You Chris Jones Chief Analyst, Canalys chris_jones@canalys.com @cjones1405

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