Laderach, P. Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Suitability In Guatemala

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Laderach, P. Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Suitability In Guatemala

  1. 1. Sustainable Food Lab - Guatemala Crop modeling with EcoCrop We analyzed the following 14 crops for Sololá (Information provided by ADAM, Fernando Colojun) Broccoli, Cauliflower, Onions, Cabbage, Carrots, Potatoes, Apple, French bean, Pea, Zucchini, Bean, Banana, Miltomate, Coffee <ul><li>What is EcoCrop? </li></ul><ul><li>Algorithm to look at the broad niche of each species; growing parameters to set up the model: </li></ul><ul><li>Absolute rainfall interval </li></ul><ul><li>Absolute temperature interval </li></ul><ul><li>Optimum rainfall interval </li></ul><ul><li>Optimum temperature interval </li></ul><ul><li>Length of the growing season </li></ul><ul><li>Crop freezing temperature </li></ul>
  2. 2. FAOSTAT - Growing parameters for crops ECOCROP - Niche model <ul><li>Broccoli (Brócoli) Sprouting broccoli - Brassica oleracea L.v ital.: 80,120,-5, 3,15,24,35,350,900,1500,2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Cauliflower (Coliflor) Cauliflower - Brassica oleracea L.v botr.: 60,120,-5,5,10,25,30,450,600,1100,1900 </li></ul><ul><li>Cabbage (Repollo) Cabbage - Brassica oleracea L.v capi.: 60,200,-10,7,15,24,32,300,500,1000,2500 </li></ul><ul><li>Onions (Cebollas) Onion - Allium cepa L. v cepa: 85,175,0,4,12,25,30,300,350,600,2800 </li></ul><ul><li>Carrots (Zanahoria) Carrot - Daucus carota L.: 60,150,-1,3,15,24,30,400,600,1200,4000 </li></ul><ul><li>Potatoes (Papa) Potato - Solanum tuberosum L.: 90,160,-1,7,15,22.5,28,39,78,325,1000 </li></ul><ul><li>Bean (Frijol de vara) pole bean - Phaseolus vulgaris L.: 50,270,7,9.1,14.1,24.2,32,300,1067,1725,2054 </li></ul><ul><li>French bean (ejote frances) Phaseolus lunatus L.: 60,330,0,13,16,28,34,400,900,1500,4300 </li></ul><ul><li>Pea (Arveja dulce) Sweet pea: Pisum Sativum L.: 60,140,-2,4,10,24,30,350,800,1800,2500 </li></ul><ul><li>Zucchini (calabacin) Zucchini - Cucurbita pepo: 40,100,0,6,17,30,40,300,600,1500,2800 </li></ul><ul><li>Banana (banano) Musa acuminata: 180,365,1,12,23,33,42,650,1200,3600,5000 </li></ul><ul><li>Miltomate Physalis philadelphica: 0,365,0,8,15,25,31,600,700,1000,1100 </li></ul><ul><li>Coffee (café) Coffe,Coffea arabica L.: 90,160,-10,70,150,225,280,39,78,325,1000 </li></ul><ul><li>Apple (manzana) Malus sylvestris: 180,320,-2,6,10,30,35,400,900,1200,1800 </li></ul><ul><li>Green Parameter-values were calibrated on coordinates of local crop evidence data !! </li></ul>
  3. 3. Suitability of Broccoli decrease significantly by 2050!
  4. 4. Suitability of Carrots decrease by 2050!
  5. 5. Suitability of Potatoes increase by 2050!
  6. 7. # of crops gaining and # of crops loosing Peter Laderach [email_address]

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