Julian R - CIATs Work on Cassava and Climate Change


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Presentation to the CIAT Cassava team of CIAT on our (DAPA) work on climate change and cassava.

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Julian R - CIATs Work on Cassava and Climate Change

  1. 1. CIAT’s work on Cassava and Climate Change Julian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis / Patricia Moreno • Earlier work: Could cassava be the answer for climate change adaptation? • Our workplan
  2. 2. Earlier work • Jarvis et al. in press • Ceballos et al. 2011 • Herrera et al. (2011)
  3. 3. Is cassava the answer for climate change adaptation? • Using the EcoCrop model, calibrated with expert knowledge and CIAT cassava program data Ceballos et al. 2011 Jarvis et al. in press
  4. 4. Our 2012 workplan (objective) Improve existing estimates of climate change impacts on cassava and set up breeding priorities for climate change adaptation
  5. 5. Our 2012 workplan 1. Realise that we need a mechanistic model! 2. James Cock and his old 70’s model 3. Model development Component Status Canopy development (LAI) Phenology Biomass Root biomass and yield Water balance Drought response CO2 response Soil nutrient response Pests Diseases YGP In process 2012 >2012
  6. 6. Our 2012 workplan 4. GLAMorize the cassava model General Large Area Model (GLAM) Large-area models are able to reproduce large-scale historical yield responses to climate and inter- annual variability
  7. 7. AgTrials.org (929 cassava trials) • 5. Calibrate and evaluate the model using multi- site trial / historical yield data
  8. 8. Our 2012 workplan 6. Run the model and improve current estimates Liu et al. (2008) What I am sure of is that cassava is far more plastic than this map suggests J. Cock (2011)
  9. 9. A way beyond • First reputable cassava process-based model with all key components • To be coupled with socio-economic data and models • Also useful for evaluating other technologies and a base for incorporating other components