Mer F - Use climate analogues for impact studies, Nairobi Aug 2012

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  • JRV: no olvides decir que “technologies” arriba incluye germplasm
  • JRV: aqui lo que debes decir es que diferencias en rendimientos tienen dependencia en diferencias de mercado, nivel tecnologico, etc… pero que una gran parte de estas diferencias tambien puede explicarse a traves del clima, particularmente para agricultura bajo riego, como es la mayoria en Africa
  • If we want to find similar yield we would need to search sites which will have similar climate JRV: aqui debes decir “si queremos saber sitios que tuvieran similar rendimiento tendriamos que buscar sitios que tuvieran similar clima y tratar de meter las tecnologias de Tamil Nadu ahi”
  • However, regarding temperature simillarity here it seems like Tamil Nadu in India which are high yield values have a similar temperature than in a part of mali and part of Soudan… Could we achieve high yields there adaptating management pracitces? Because temperature is similar in central India and yellow area in Africa, we could have same yield range at both places
  • Cambia el titulo de este slide por algo como: “Assess crop performance”
  • Chevere!
  • JRV: este slide lo podrias remover y lo que esta aqui simplemente decirlo. Es demasiado texto.
  • African pilots … Selection of a set of analogue villages to visit on the way to Mbinga
  • JRV: pone animacion en este slide Analogue tour Participatory videos
  • Of course have to take in account socio-economic parameters, soil, agronomic parameters. We can not do the farmer exchange by doing only climate analogues
  • 3 exchange visits; to different analogue villages Participatory selection of the sites with the community
  • Using analogues, we could say where would be useful to transfer plant genetic resources to adapt to the climate changing. In the future, North india and south soudan – soudan would face the same climate of tougou, BF. It could be intersting to have a look at this opportunity in order to agronomic data and socio-economic data. As Soudan and India, would face the same climate as Tougou, it would be interesting to analysis de possibility of transfer PGR from Tougou to Soudan\\India to adapt to CC.
  • JRV: mucho texto
  • Mer F - Use climate analogues for impact studies, Nairobi Aug 2012

    1. 1. Use of climate analogues for impact studies and designing adaptation options Flora Mer
    2. 2. Climate Analogue Applications to design adaptation options1. Explaining differences in crop performance2. Target varieties and crops under certain environments3. Farmer exchanges (Farms of the Future project)4. Plant genetic resources interdependenceAnd also:4. Evaluate outputs of crop models5. Targeting agricultural trials
    3. 3. The principleDifferences in agricultural systems are related toclimates –hence we can transfer technologies (i.e.germplasm) that work if climates are similar
    4. 4. 1. Explaining differences in crop performance West et al. 2010, based on Monfreda et al. 2008
    5. 5. High yieldsCassava yield
    6. 6. Temperature similarityCould we achievehigh yields here?
    7. 7. 2. Target crops or varieties Kontela, Mali is a potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal Yield data available in the Agtrials database: http://www.agtrials.org The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Sorghum yield dataSorghum K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha) VarietyCSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06
    8. 8. 3. The Farm of the Future project Taking the analogue concept to the field What CCAFS output? The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality Why is it useful? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
    9. 9. Farm of the future in Tanzania “Where can we find at presentlocations the future expected climate of a selected Reference Site to transferadaptation options to climate change?”
    10. 10. Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto)Reference site: Yamba
    11. 11. Farms of the Future in Tanzania (Lushoto) How to run the analogue tool? – Various variable combinations • Temperature and precipitation • Only temperature • Only precipitation • Combination of bioclimatic variables ( Rtotal, …) – Various time periods: All year, specific growing season, rainy season, dry season,… – Criteria of maps display: Within the 5/10/15 % more analogous & where 80 /70 % of the climate models used agree – Need to take into account socio-economic parameters, soil parameters,…
    12. 12. Farms of the future in Tanzania Analogue map Lushoto CCAFS site Morogoro Mwitikilwa Njombe Nyombo - Analogue run with – all year – precipitation and temperature - Starting point: Yamba Mbinga - Map shows the 15% best analogues to which 80% of the GCMs agreed
    13. 13. Boxplot comparing dissimilarity value between the referencesite and the different potential analogue sites selected SPREAD is due to climate models
    14. 14. Graphs comparing future climate of the reference site with current climate of target sites selected The best analogues sitewould be the one with themore similar future climate tothe future climate of thereference site Farmer exchange from thereference site to the analoguesite selected
    15. 15. Farms of the future in Tanzania Journey to Yamba’s plausible futuresAnalogue study TourVillages visited Starting Lushoto Mbuzii point Yamba Kinole - SACCOS visit Morogoro - Market visit Mwitikilwa-Market value chain social -Weather station visitenterprise visit - Bean trial visit- Input supply Stockists Njombe - Tree nursery visit visit Nyombo station -W eather Sepukila Village: do trial - Avoca arieties trial -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and v -Banana tility mngt water conservation technique fer -Coffee nursery - Maize -Stoves Masasi Village: -Water source -Fish pond Mbinga -Biogas Mtama Village: - Bee keeping
    16. 16. Farm of the future in Ghana “Where can we find at presentlocations the future expected climate of a selected Reference Site to transferadaptation options to climate change?”
    17. 17. Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)Reference site: Doggoh
    18. 18. Farms of the Future in Ghana (Lawra-Jirapa)Reference site: Doggoh Zoom
    19. 19. Farms of the Future in Ghana - Reference site: Doggoh, Lawra Jirapa - Take farmers to villages in Burkina Faso
    20. 20. Farm of the future in NepalParticipatory systemic analysis of:•Key environmental challenges and vulnerabilities (adaptation to what)•Scope of the system under examination (adaptation of what and over whattime frame)•Local values and visions and aspirations for the future (adaptation fromwhose perspective)•Existing coping strategies and tools, strengths and assets in thecommunity (building on present strengths)•Social, cultural, economic andpolitical barriers andopportunities for adaptationBack-casting is then conductedto develop step-by-step plans Socially and culturallywhich build on locally available appropriate exchangestrengths and resources to locations are chosen fromreach community identified climate analogue locationsgoals and visions through a participatory process. Farmer exchanges facilitate shared examination of challenges, opportunities and strategies for reaching locally defined goals and visions.
    21. 21. Farms of the Future in NepalReference site: Beora
    22. 22. Farms of the Future in NepalReference site: Beora
    23. 23. Farms of the future Journey Beora’s plausible futures Analogue 1st Exchange visit - Nepal Chitwan - BeoraBlog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/
    24. 24. 4. Climate analoguesand the plant genetic resources interdependency
    25. 25. Analogues & the International Treaty of Plant GeneticResources for Food and Agriculture (IT-PGRFA)Tougou,Burkina Faso (x= -2.252, y= 13.691)Millet: June to OctoberForward analysis: Where can we find the present climate of Tougou in the future ? Share benefits of Plant Genetic Resources? Dissimilarity Index
    26. 26. Analogues & IT-PGRFA • Help breeders to select future plant varieties and to identify which species provide important traits useful to adapt to Climate Change • Build scenarios with users about opportunities to increase access to foreign PGRFA in the future • Identify what kinds of PGRFA are useful from other parts of the world to meet climate change adaptation needs • Find the places where it is urgent to conserve plant genetic resources
    27. 27. Conclusions• We believe the analogue approach as an interesting tool for analysing impacts and identifying and supporting adaptation strategies• By using analogue in different projects, we are validating our method• However, we need to continue improving methods based on calibration and validation• We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for improvement, and working with you in the use of the tool to continue its improvement
    28. 28. Adaptation to ProgressiveClimate Change 1 one Thank you.>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool Contact us ! – Andy Jarvis (lead scientist) a.jarvis@cgiar.org – David Arango (lead developer) d.arango@cgiar.org – Flora Mer (FOTF-CIAT contact) f.mer@cgiar.org – Julian Ramirez (co-developer) j.r.villegas@cgiar.orgc Stay Connected Website: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Blog: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/blog Sign up for science, policy and news e- bulletins at our website. Follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate E-mail: f.mer@cgiar.org

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