Decision and policy analysis May 2010


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May 2010 presentation on the DAPA program and highlights from 2009.

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  • Assess benefits from scientist research into farmers and consumers as a cycle Improve capacity
  • This studies are mainly for commodities
  • This studies are mainly for commodities
  • Improve our network positioning on the impact assessment topics linking to National and International Universities. Funds available from USAID 39,000 for USA University linkage, access to Impact Assessment Focal Points of other CGIAR’s
  • Effective and sustained farm to market links require three components: Farmers that are attractive partners for market actors Market actors willing to invest in working with small producers An effective enabling environment to support / govern these links CIAT employs different methods to leverage change in these three areas: Partnering with NGOs to provide large-scale access to CIAT research for development impact through learning alliances Targeted action-research and incidence with large buyers to develop more inclusive private sector policies (buying, payment, governance) Learning alliances with public sector decision-makers to identify how public policy is inclusive / exclusive of the poor, women and ethnic minorities CIAT has expended significant effort in the past on working with development partners and this will continue Towards the future, increasing emphasis will be placed on influencing buyers and public / donor agencies towards more effective private and public policies For a further discussion of key research topics / areas, please come to the markets meeting on Friday at 3:30 PM, location TBA
  • Decision and policy analysis May 2010

    1. 1. Decision and Policy Analysis Program Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor Note the looming climate change cloud
    2. 2. Contents – BUSINESS plan <ul><li>Our objectives and vision </li></ul><ul><li>Our outcomes, and some selected highlights </li></ul><ul><li>Progress over past 12 months with respect to Business Plan: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indicators </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Exciting new initiatives </li></ul>
    3. 3. Our vision <ul><li>We strongly believe in the power of information for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource investments, from the farm- to the global- level . </li></ul><ul><li>Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights. </li></ul>Better public and private policies
    4. 4. Our modus operandi <ul><li>Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Converting data to information to policy and decision insights </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle </li></ul>
    5. 5. Our objectives and some selected highlights <ul><li>To maximize the impact and returns on investment of agricultural research and development through ex ante and ex post impact assessment </li></ul><ul><li>To contribute to improved management of critical ecosystem services through pro-poor payment schemes for water and carbon in Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>To fully understand the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, livelihoods and critical ecosystem services, and identify best-bet adaptation strategies from local to global level </li></ul><ul><li>To ensure that public and private sector policies provide the opportunity for smallholder farmers to profit from emerging market opportunities </li></ul>
    6. 6. <ul><li>Impact culture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact assessment workshops </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assessing impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CIAT/FLAR partnership (rice/LAC) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PABRA initiative (beans/Africa) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CIAT databases (institutional) </li></ul></ul>EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT
    7. 7. <ul><li>Ex-post Impact Assessment of CIAT/FLAR partnership. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional study in LAC (15 countries) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Last 15 years evaluation (1995-2010) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess economic benefits and public-private alliance importance. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FLAR-CIAT initiative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expected outcomes are one master thesis, between two and three peer review journals (comparative advantages among LAC countries, economic impact assessment, institutional relations among public-private sector). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Budget: 10,000 USD </li></ul></ul>Ongoing Work
    8. 8. <ul><li>Defining Impact of Improved Varieties for Beans. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional study in Sub Saharan Africa (10 countries, main bean producers) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Last 10 years evaluation (1999-2010) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess economic benefits and PABRA intervention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CGIAR initiative, Gates funded </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expected outcomes are several peer review journals and a chapter book for the CGIAR (economic impact assessment). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Budget: 168,000 USD </li></ul></ul>Ongoing Work
    9. 9. EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT <ul><li>Strategic alliances </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Standing Panel for Impact Assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International Initiative for Impact Evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact Evaluation Network </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Local and International Universities </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. <ul><li>Trial site information </li></ul><ul><li>Add, edit, search & query information </li></ul><ul><li>Trial planning & analysis tools </li></ul>
    11. 11. Seed Systems in Africa: spatial impact assessment <ul><li>Mapped the location of seed outlets of improved drought-tolerant bean varieties in Kenya </li></ul><ul><li>Identified areas where the population demanding bean seeds are not covered </li></ul><ul><li>Developed and applied heuristics for improving spatial coverage </li></ul><ul><li>Investigated communication between producers, input merchants, seed suppliers and researchers </li></ul>
    12. 13. Ecosystem services
    13. 14. Benefit sharing mechanisms <ul><li>Or, payment schemes for ES </li></ul><ul><li>Connecting economies </li></ul>
    14. 15. Reasons for Failures in PES <ul><li>High failure rate of PES, though Latin America has been a test-bed </li></ul><ul><li>Unreal expectations for PES </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of equity in benefit sharing </li></ul><ul><li>Poor or inappropriate governance structures </li></ul><ul><li>High potential to create conflict, rather than resolve it if implemented poorly </li></ul>Numbers as a basis for dialogue Social, natural and economic
    15. 16. Modelling protocol INVEST ENTRADAS FIESTA Tabla de Coeficientes Simulación INVEST Producción de Agua Sedimentos Liberados An á lisis de Impactos en caudales y sedimentos Escenarios Cambio Uso Selección Áreas Priorizadas Caudales y Sedimentos Generación GRIDS MED Uso / Suelo Tipos de Suelo Subcuenca HRUs Red Hídrica Simulación SWAT Escenario Actual Caudal y Sedimentos SWAT Calibración y Validación Caracterización por Uso / suelo / pendiente Calcular parámetros MED Nubes Vegetación Clima Simulación Flujo Neblina Escenario Actual Caudal
    16. 17. Multiple modelling approaches <ul><li>Fiesta Invest Swat </li></ul>
    17. 18. Definition of priority sites for interventions and quantification of benefits <ul><li>Swat Invest </li></ul>
    18. 19. Moving from case to case… Cuenca Embalse Rio GrandeII
    19. 20. Near-real time monitoring of habitat change in Latin America
    20. 21. Objectives of <ul><li>Provide near-real time monitoring of habitat change (<3 month turn-around) </li></ul><ul><li>Continental – global coverage (forests AND non-forests) </li></ul><ul><li>Regularity in updates </li></ul>
    21. 22. PARASID Colombia <ul><li>Direct usage for developing negotiation position of Colombia in Copenhagen </li></ul><ul><li>September 2009 Colombia were going to COP15 with a figure of 100,000Ha/year deforestation </li></ul><ul><li>Terra-i analysis identified MINIMUM 180,000Ha/year, most likely 250-300,000Ha/year </li></ul><ul><li>Discussions underway for to become a 1 st tier monitoring tool for National Parks </li></ul>
    22. 23. <ul><li>76% coverage of country </li></ul><ul><li>Approx. 250,000Ha/year average </li></ul><ul><li>90% increase in deforestation rate 2004 - 2009 </li></ul>
    23. 24.
    24. 26. Climate change and agricultural livelihoods
    26. 29. Decision making despite uncertainty
    27. 30. Breeding priorities for a 2030 world <ul><li>During 2010 we further developed the Ecocrop approach (CIAT modified version) </li></ul><ul><li>Moved from expert-based model to an empirically calibrated model </li></ul><ul><li>Developed a protocol for identifying priority constraints under current and future climatic conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Beans, cassava, banana and potato analysed and in press in Crop Adaptation book </li></ul>
    28. 31. Cassava Beans
    29. 33. Also… <ul><li>Lao Adaptation Road map </li></ul><ul><li>Colombian climate change road map </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sectoral analysis for Min. of Environment, UNDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lead to the drafting of a CONPES policy document </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Now planning to go into sub-sectoral detail </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Many country- or crop- based case studies for range of partners </li></ul>
    30. 34. Where we are moving… <ul><li>Pulling it together: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ecosystem services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Biodiversity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture and livestock </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Livelihoods </li></ul></ul>CLIMATE CHANGE What governance, institutions and policies are required to manage these multiple land-use demands?
    31. 35. Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets New business models for sustained trading relationships
    32. 36. 2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets <ul><li>Successful hand-off of Central American Learning Alliance facilitation to CATIE; fully funded by partners. </li></ul><ul><li>Development of a collaborative research project on the role of ICTs for smallholder inclusion in value chains underway. </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation of the CUP project (private sector funding) on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach). </li></ul><ul><li>Grounding Climate change in Central America proposal built on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach). </li></ul>
    33. 37. 2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets <ul><li>Initiatives implemented in Africa (Gates) and LAC (Sustainable Food Lab) </li></ul><ul><li>Methods and tools fully developed and in field testing </li></ul><ul><li>Engagement with major private sector companies including ASDA Walmart, Sysco, Hershey’s, Kraft and Mars </li></ul><ul><li>Publications: FAO book chapter, Oxfam policy brief </li></ul><ul><li>20 case studies documented in LAC, Africa and Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Second round of training and field manuals and publications under way (2010 target) </li></ul>
    34. 38. 2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets <ul><li>IFAD small grant – How can IFAD better partner systematically with the private sector in LAC to build more sustainable and inclusive supply chains (Guatemala / DR) </li></ul><ul><li>Ford Foundation -- Assess the effect of public expenditure on supply chains in Colombia as a mechanism for the inclusion of the poor (under development) </li></ul>
    35. 39. THE TEAM
    36. 40. The Oldies James Garcia Simon Cook Carlos Nagles Glenn Hyman Robert Andrade Mark Lundy Simone Staiger Jorge Cardona Ana Milena Louis Reymondin Enna Diaz Lilian P. Torres Jhon Jairo Hurtado Carolina González Silvia H. castaño Leader: Andy Jarvis Jhon Ocampo Anton Eitzineger
    37. 41. The Youth Daniel Jimenez Mike Salazar Osana Bonilla F. Ovidio Rivera Juan Carlos Andrade Peter Laderach Natalia Uribe Nora Castañeda Elizabeth Barona Katherin Tehelen Lea Jehin Mario Muñoz Julián Ramirez Hector Tobón Martin Ayling Emmanuel Zapata
    38. 42. And the positively under-age Vanesa Herrera Daniel Amariles Audberto Quiroga Victor A. Lizcano Angelica Ma. Henao Carolina Argote D. Oriana C. Ovalle Yuli Medina Jeferson Valencia Jairo Guerrrero Miguel Idrobo Carlos Navarro Carlos A. Ramirez Antonio Pantoja David Rodriguez
    39. 43. Blade Arreglo de disco Arreglo de disco Alternate servers Array disk
    40. 44. New positions <ul><li>Postdoc level climate change specialist, to support modeling approaches, part core funded – Research fellow position starting June </li></ul><ul><li>Postdoc level site specific agriculture specialist to support projects in pipeline should they be approved – Starting June </li></ul><ul><li>High level agricultural economist to take a lead on ex post impact assessment, core funded – Lower level postdoc recruited in conjunction with IFPRI </li></ul><ul><li>Mid-level economist support staff to examine climate change impacts on livelihoods, part funded by core - Final selection process </li></ul><ul><li>Second senior staff to support markets research pending approval of projects in pipeline – Funding for public policy postdoc, no candidate </li></ul><ul><li>Hopes for recruiting a resource economist in June </li></ul>
    41. 45. Our indicators <ul><li>At least two peer reviewed, high quality ex post impact studies of CIAT’s research products – FLAR and African Beans </li></ul><ul><li>At least 4 policy briefs in CIAT’s policy brief series – Behind schedule, but we’ll catch up </li></ul><ul><li>Minimum 15 peer reviewed journal articles on topics that fit with the thematic focus – 30% complete </li></ul><ul><li>Influencing at least 2 major policy decisions at the national, regional or global scale in both private- and public- sectors – Working on it </li></ul><ul><li>Provide spatial datasets to at least 30,000 users globally - Achieved </li></ul><ul><li>Reaching at least 50,000 farmers with the products of our research – Depends how you measure it </li></ul><ul><li>Training at least 80 key individuals each year in research approaches – 60% completion </li></ul>
    42. 46. Topography data 3 countries in world NOT accessed in last year
    43. 48. Our financial indicators <ul><li>The general fund-raising goals of the program are to: </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Generate US$1.5m of special project funds per year to maintain current staffing – 80% complete </li></ul><ul><li>Bring in US$150k of self generated income per year through sale of data and technical services – 65% complete </li></ul><ul><li>Meet institutional cost recovery targets, and indeed exceed them – 40% complete </li></ul>
    44. 49. New initiatives <ul><li>Vulnerable populations as a target beneficiary of CIAT research products through increased resilience, enhanced nutrition and greater capacity to commercialise products (proposal sent to USAID for pilot funding, significant opportunities exist in Colombia through USAID) </li></ul><ul><li>Development of site-specific agriculture concepts and approaches to support enhanced agricultural productivity in both CIAT commodities and other crops, specifically in Colombia (proposal sent to ASOHOFRUCOL for fruits, plus significant demand from stakeholders in other crops) </li></ul><ul><li>Understanding the economics and technological demand from intensification in the Amazon (through new CIM expert and the AI-SWEP) </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation road maps for multiple countries and regions (proposals for BID, plus national level governments) </li></ul><ul><li>Ambitious new monitoring tools for examining natural resource degradation and crop distribution in near real time using MODIS satellite data (semi-funded currently by TNC, large opportunities in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil for follow-up projects) </li></ul>
    45. 50. Impact Climate Change Ecosystem Services
    46. 51. Agricultura especifica por sitio compartiendo experiencias (AESCE) aplicada a la producción de frutales en Colombia. Cadenas productivas (mango, aguacate, citricos, plátano)
    47. 52. The Concept <ul><li>Production systems are highly heterogeneous </li></ul><ul><li>We need massive amounts of data to understand them, in order to act and provide recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>Every farm is essentially an experimental station </li></ul><ul><li>Every crop cycle, management practice is an event (trial, n) </li></ul><ul><li>Farmer’s learn and adapt from an n + 1 + 1 ….. </li></ul><ul><li>Learning from collective knowledge far more powerful ( n of 1,000s) </li></ul><ul><li>But, all ‘trials’ go uncompiled – we learn, but not enough </li></ul>
    48. 53. Hypothesis <ul><li>If it were possible to compile the information on what the farmer did and characterize the conditions of a large number of these experiments it would be possible to deduce optimum practices for specific conditions </li></ul>
    49. 54. The Opportunity <ul><li>Existence of “glocal” datasets on environment and socio-economies – these are global in extent, and local in relevance which can characterize any on-farm experiment that takes place </li></ul><ul><li>Capture and delivery mechanisms for information through ICTs – mobile phones, internet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Move information, up, down, across, round and about </li></ul></ul><ul><li>An organizing world – revolution in rural organizations around supply chains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bottom-up revolution in farmer organisation </li></ul></ul>
    50. 55. Naranja Antioquia produce más naranja con la mitad de las hectáreas cultivadas en Tolima  Oportunidad Fuente MADR (promedio 2002- 2008) Departamento Área (Has) Producción (Tons) Rendimiento (Kg/ha) Antioquia 1,163 35,796 30,035 Tolima 2,413 20,818 8,625 Cesar 1,884 20,567 11,023 Cundinamarca 1,440 14,185 9,939 Magdalena 483 9,064 18,772 Bolívar 353 6,113 7,453 Risaralda 156 5,577 10,213 Córdoba 262 5,207 18,836
    51. 57. Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies <ul><li>Improved climate change projections for Central America </li></ul><ul><li>Methods that allow local communities to access climate change models to develop local participatory adaptation, mitigation and risk-management strategies with a gender focus; </li></ul><ul><li>Feedback loops to gather, assess and share community-level climate observations horizontally for farmer to farmer extension </li></ul><ul><li>Economic impact and multi-criteria analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Public and private policy incidence strategies </li></ul>
    52. 58. Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies
    53. 59. Open Issues <ul><li>Expansion into other regions? Can we manage that? </li></ul><ul><li>How much growth? What program size can we sustain? </li></ul><ul><li>The need for real public policy experts, but difficulties in finding individuals </li></ul>