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DAPA Update May 2013


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Presentation of the DAPA Research Area of CIAT, given to the CIAT Board of Trustees in Nairobi, Kenya May 2013.

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DAPA Update May 2013

  1. 1. NAMEwww.ciat.cgiar.orgSince 1967 / Science to cultivate change14 May 2013Andy JarvisDecision and Policy Analysis
  2. 2. • Cross-cutting, multi-disciplinary team who believe that betterdecisions can be made with the power of information• Supporting functions within CIAT, and global researchleadership in specific themes• Reviewed in November 2012 and new strategic documentdeveloped as a resultDecision and Policy Analysis
  3. 3. Incoming staff(January – May 2013)Decision and Policy AnalysisGisella CruzSocial ScientistAna María LoboguerreroProgram Leader forLatin AmericaCCAFSPurabi BoseSocial Scientist
  4. 4. Overall Vision and Thematic Goals• Recommendation n° 1: As soon as possible DAPA should redefinetheir goals, focusing on what it wants to change, where, with whom,and what products and services it will provide to that end• Decision:o Goal: To facilitate and improve decision making in the agriculturalsector by ensuring that decision makers are well informed andengaged, through the provision of reliable information and easyto use analytical methods to assess the likely outcomes of policy,research, development and management optionso 2 page business and strategic plans for each thematic area,outlining objectives, products, end users, strategic partnershipsand target outcomes
  5. 5. Structure follows Strategy• Recommendation n° 6: DAPA faces a major challenge of maintainingproper management of its scientists and students, derived from its veryrapid growth, and the very low proportion of senior scientists to youngscientists and students• Decision:o Break with the pure horizontality of DAPA and build a new structurewhich facilitates integration but enhances accountability and qualitycontrolo Strengthen “critical mass” of thematic groupso …and makes my life easier by having a functional “MT” for DAPA
  6. 6. • Focussed on delivering research outcomes in:o Climate change (CRP7)o Ecosystem Services (CRP5)o Linking Farmers to Markets (CRP2)• Through expert, disciplinary groups in:o Modellingo Gender analysiso Impact and Strategic Studieso Policy Analysiso Knowledge Managemento Big DataDecision and Policy AnalysisResearch Themes: Identify opportunities, deliver outcomes, facilitate cross-disciplinarityExpert groups: Ensure quality, disciplinary excellence, develop new methodologiesTheme CRP 1.2 CRP 2 CRP 3.5 CRP 3.7 CRP 5 CRP 6 CRP 7Climate Change Low HighEcosystem Services HighLinking Farmers to Markets Medium High Low Low
  7. 7. DAPA Version 2.0LFMESCCModellingPolicyGenderImpact and SSKMBig DATADAPA Lead OutcomesResearch ThemesExpert GroupsDAPA StaffStaff fromother areasDAPA LeaderCenter lead outcomesCoordinatorResearch Themes: Identify opportunities, deliver outcomes, facilitate cross-disciplinarityExpert groups: Ensure quality, disciplinary excellence, develop new methodologies
  8. 8. Pros and Cons• Creates a “MT” for DAPA leader, addressing Julio’s observationof leader needing more support• Facilitates integration by taking a matrix approach betweendisciplinary expertise and thematic research areas, andexplicitly enables other Research Areas to integrate closer intoDAPA• Leader for each theme and group enhances coordination,supervision and accountability• Maps perfectly to CRPs• Con: True integrators do not fit, e.g. Agreement CIAT-MADR
  9. 9. Other Recommendations• Recommendation n° 5: DAPA’s expansion of its work in Africa and Asiashould be guided by clear and explicit regional strategieso Africa: LFM and CC, Asia: CC. Staff rotation, joint proposals, realisticexpectations.o 2 page strategy document developed on regions• Recommendation n° 4: DAPA should hire staff that can support and leadits efforts to influence policies, and/or it can develop strategic allianceswith qualified partners experienced in using research to influence policyo Strategy document developed as initial blueprint for the policy“expert group”, but needs leadership. No. 1 priority for new hire.• Recommendation n° 3: DAPA should take advantage of the opportunityrepresented by CRP 2, to strengthen its work under the “LFM” themeo 2 page strategy document on LFM developed. 2 new hiresstrengthening quantitative approaches, 1 other new hire advertised
  10. 10. DAPA V2.0• Goal and vision changed• More clarity on thematic objectives, target productsand outcomes• New proposed structure which maintains trans-disciplinarity and strengthens team• 3 year business plan / 6 year strategic directionsdocument, seen as an organic document to ensure weare adaptive – yearly updates• Aspirational and agile!• Fundraising priorities to focus not on more money, butbetter money• New thematic strategies to lead the way in terms ofdefining fundraising priorities
  11. 11. Getting to Grips with Climate Adaptation:The Right Choices
  12. 12. Evaluating Varietal AdaptationVar.CariocaVar.CalimaVar.Jamapa
  13. 13. Likely Yield with Different Planting Dates
  14. 14. Modelling Potential Losses from ExtremeEvents with Different Planting Dates
  15. 15. Benefits of Potential Adaptation Options:Conservation Agriculture%yieldloss% water deficit
  16. 16. Playing out transformative climate smartadaptation in CCAFS benchmark sitesin East Africa:When, where, how and with whom?
  17. 17. CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock(forages)Borana (ET)Maize(96.6%)Beans(86.4%)Wheat(33.1%)Beef cattle(93.2%)Goats(77.8%)Nyando (KE)Maize(99.2%)Sorghum(73.3%)Beans(34.4%)Goats(66.9%)Chicken/hens(61.2%)Usambara (TZ)Maize(87.1%)Beans(75%)Tomatoes(29%)Chicken/hens(82.1%)Dairy cows(56.4%)AlbertineRift (UG)Cassava(78.6%)Beans(68.4%)Sweetpotatoes(59.8%)Chicken/hens(82.5%)Pigs (63.1%)Where do We Work?
  18. 18. Climate Smart Agriculture:Tackling Adoption Head onRash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made
  19. 19. Linking continents for climate smartagricultureRed: Localities having climates similarto that expected in Nyando in 2030Black: Colombian departments whereenterprises in maize and beans workwithin the framework of the CIAT–CCAFS–MADR project
  20. 20. Ruth….tell us something about gender!
  21. 21. Gender Dimensions• Why consider gender?o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both maleand female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers)• Findings (Context Specific)o Gender division of laboro Decision-makingo Control and Access of Resources
  22. 22. Gender Division of Labor• Examples:o Spraying was reported as a men’s task, ando Weeding mainly as a women’s taskW m ’s R p ’s R pMenWomenBoysGirlsOverall, men and women tend to report that theythemselves do most of the tasks
  23. 23. Decision-Making• Across all 4 sites:o Women report that men make most decisionso Men report more decisions are taken jointlyo Example: Nyando, KenyaW m ’s R p ’s R pMenWomenTogether
  24. 24. Relations with the Host Country:CIAT-Ministry of Agriculture Agreement onIntegrative analysis of production systems inColombia for adaptation to climate
  25. 25. Objective of the AgreementJoin efforts, resources and capacity of the Ministry and CIAT tostrengthen the agricultural and livestock sector to adapt toclimate change, and improve the resource use-efficiency inprioritised production systems• US$8m, 18 months, 11 national partners, 3 internationalpartners• “CCAFS Colombia”, 4 themes• Improved crop models, seasonal climate and cropforecasting, carbon and water footprints, varietal evaluationacross climate gradients• Direct input into National Adaptation Plan for the AgriculturalSector, and the mitigation plan (NAMA) for the agriculturalsector
  26. 26. Rewarding for Ecosystem Servicesin watersheds
  27. 27. Different Groups Want Different Things• Downstreamo Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplieso Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation watero Tourists want clean, attractive water• Midstreamo Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt waterwithout having to invest in large storage reservoirs• Upstreamo Highland communities want to live bettero Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services
  28. 28. Upperbasin(4000-5800Ecosystem service provision(Water yield (mm))1111-1507Middlebasin(350–400051-256Lowerbasin(0-350)0-50Peruvian Case Study, Cañete River Watershed – Current SituationUpperbasin(4000-5800River flow use (m3/s)0(mostly from springs)Middlebasin(350–4000250, 64Lowerbasin(0-350)Upperbasin(4000-5800Water and land usesExtensive degrading grazing, subsistenceagricultureMiddlebasin(350–4000Hydropower companyShrimp growersLowerbasin(0-350)Urban dwellersWater inefficient commercial agricultureTourists (rafting)
  29. 29. Desired SituationUpperbasin(4000-5800Middlebasin(350–4000Lowerbasin(0-350)Transfer partof theirbenefitsInvestment inproductivealternativesWatershed’ssocioeconomicasymmetries mightbe balanced by thisbenefit-sharingmechanism
  30. 30. Research outputs andintermediate project outcomes• Conceptual approach:Adopted by MINAM …Is not only about paying forimproving the delivery ofthe ESS but also aboutrewarding for ESS alreadybeing delivered (positiveexternalities)Recently presented byVice-Ministry of Environment(Nov, 2012)
  31. 31. Where We are Right Now:Putting Research into Use• Participating in drafting national Ecosystem Services Law thatdraws on Cañete experience: Final version of ESS Law beforeCongress for approval• Other case study catchments (6 others) contributing to asystematic review of potential for benefit sharing schemesin Andes• Strategic internal alliance with soils for within- and cross-region learning on ecosystem services, placing CIAT as aecosystem services lead for CRP5
  32. 32. Linking Farmers to Markets• Under what conditions can market linkages be aneffective tool for rural poverty reduction for gender andsocially differentiated actors?• Iterative process of design, testing and documentation ofapproaches for inclusive business models, R4D platformsand public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia
  33. 33. Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus onbenefits of linking smallholders to markets• Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformationalchange that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor• The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustainedmarket access is not• Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civilsociety actorsAmbitious Destinations, Few Roads
  34. 34. Supply Chain Policies In ColombiaPolicy density (# chains) by DepartmentCUADRO 410 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS:ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓNFOCALIZACIÓNGEOGRÁFICAAguacate Arroz Cacao Caucho CítricosY Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI% Población con NBI      % Población Rural conNBI            Índice DesarrolloHumano            Índice Gini de Tierras2009      Índice Gini dePropietarios 2009      Núm. IntervencionesUSAID (ProgramasMIDAS y ADAM)     Núm. IntervencionesMADR (OportunidadesRurales y AlianzasProductivas)            FOCALIZACIÓNGEOGRÁFICAFique Fruticola Guayaba Mango PlatanoY Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI% Población con NBI     % Población Rural conNBI             Índice DesarrolloHumano        Índice Gini de Tierras2009            Índice Gini dePropietarios 2009             Núm. IntervencionesUSAID (ProgramasMIDAS y ADAM)              Núm. IntervencionesMADR (OportunidadesRurales y AlianzasProductivas)                    Social performance by supply chainPolicy performance by DepartmentQuantitative macro analysis(policies & development outcomes)Qualitative meso analysis(why does the policy work /fail?)Household level surveys(what does it mean for the poor?)ResearchIncidence
  35. 35. Thinking through impactStrategy & Results Framework:Performance management….
  36. 36. • Over 5.3 million rural households in sub-Saharan Africa have adopted modern beanvarieties over the last 17 years, generatingbenefits worth nearly US$200 million• Adoption of improved cassava varieties inThailand and Vietnam has nearly reached90%, creating benefits worth almost $12billion over the last 20 years• Improved forages now cover an areaestimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropicalAmerica, generating huge benefits throughimproved livestock production – estimated at$1 billion in Colombia, for example• Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area isplanted to improved rice, with benefits valuedat $860 million from 1967 to 1995 aloneExamples of Impacts
  37. 37. Big Data: The Engine Behind it All• Great climate data• Improved soil information• Crop distribution and yield data• Land-use data• Capacity to manage and analyze it:o Infrastructureo Geeks• Major opportunities around thetheme of SMART FARMING
  38. 38. CCAFS Climate: 40,000 users in 18 months
  39. 39. Agtrials data!4600 trials20000varieties/races• Calibration, validation of cropmodels• Exploration and testing ofadaptation optionso Genetic improvemento On-farm managementpractices• Assess technology transferoptions• Build “adaptation packages”
  40. 40. Joining the dots through data: SmartFarming• Farms are experimental stations which generate data• New approaches can manage and analyse MASSIVE datasetsand make sense of them• ICTs can capture,transmit and receivedata• Building on ourexperience in AESCE• BIG data for SMARTfarming
  41. 41. c c s ….• Science informed laws on benefit sharing of water in theAndes• Better national plans and policies for dealing with climatechange (Nicaragua, Colombia….)• Breeders breeding for the right traits• Farmers and their organizations making the right choices in adynamic climate• Countries tackling deforestation head on with REDD+• Some very motivated and dedicated geeky misfits….• ….with a deviously smart new strategy for impact• And much more….
  42. 42. CIAT: Science to Cultivate ChangeFollow us:Website: www.ciat.cgiar.orgBlog: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org
  43. 43. Annex – Target Outcomes ofDAPA
  44. 44. Climate Change• CG centers and national/international agricultural development institutions developing breedingstrategies that build-on/incorporate DAPA’s data and modeling analysis.• Integrated adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems inserted into policy andinstitutional frameworks at regional, national or sub-national level in target countries. Namely,NAMAs and NAPs strategically developed in target countries using DAPA’s inputs.• Evaluation of policy options used by governmental agencies for formulating and implementingclimate smart policies that promote best-bet adaptation and mitigation pathways whileenhancing food security and rural livelihoods.• National and regional governmental agencies, NGOs and development c s s P ’s sand methods including cost benefit analysis of options, feasibility studies etc for establishing andimplementing their agendas.• Multilateral banks and key donors using DAPA generated science based recommendations to guidetheir investments (climate‐proofed crop and breeding initiatives) and portfolio development.• Governmental programs, NGOs and development agencies using the gender sensitivemethodologies (tool kit) for identifying sex-differentiated vulnerabilities to climate change, andevaluating adaptation strategies in terms of gender equality and empowerment of poor male andfemale farmers.• National, regional and international agro-climatic research community including universities andmet-services using and/or co-developing data, tools, models and approaches for improvingestimations of crop vulnerability, climate related impacts
  45. 45. Ecosystem Services• Decision makers will promote BSM taking into account the results derived from ESRG analyses(socioeconomic impact of BSMs, quantification and valuation of ESs, situational analyses, etc.).• It is expected that technicians and advisors working for End Users will be able to use results aboutthe mapping and quantity of ES to target spending and actions that are part of proposed BSMs (e.g.PES-type schemes)• ES beneficiaries (e.g. downstream actors benefiting from water-related ecosystem services) will beinterested in participating in proposed BSM and this will be at least partly due to efforts to raisetheir awareness on the effects that appropriate land management have on the delivery ofecosystem services and the socioeconomic implications of this.• Researchers working on mechanisms for sharing the benefits/costs associated with the provision ofecosystem services will incorporate our methodological approach and project results into theirrange of work and if feasible apply our tools in their own projects. Likewise, ES researchers willinclude our methodological framework for conducting in depth social analysis for assessing thedirect and indirect contributions of ecosystem services to the wellbeing of the rural poor• Environmental authorities have knowledge and understanding of the methodological approach andresults in the case studies and if possible they consider research outputs for delineatingintervention alternatives to improve not only the management and conservation of ES but also thewellbeing of the rural poor, including their food and nutritional security.
  46. 46. Linking Farmers to Markets• International agencies and BiNGOs• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) adopt/adapt LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of marketaccess projects.• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) engage with LFM in development learning processes that allow robust quantitative andqualitative assessment of development outcomes from market access projects. This process contributes to organizational learning about whichmarket-based approaches work well and under what conditions for the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.• International agencies and big international NGOs (BiNGOs) leverage evidence and knowledge gained through development learning processes toadvocate for deeper, systemic change with key public, private, donor and multi-lateral policy makers that favor the sustained economic inclusion ofrural women and men.• Key private sector companies and networks• Key private sector companies and networks adapt and disseminate LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of marketaccess projects.• Key private sector companies and networks engage with LFM in learning processes that allow robust quantitative and qualitative assessment ofsocial, economic and environmental outcomes from small holder access / sourcing projects. This process contributes to organizational learning aboutwhich market-based approaches work well and under what conditions for the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.• Key private sector networks leverage evidence and knowledge gained through learning processes to influence industry-wide best practice andbusiness school curriculum in favor of approaches that favor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men.• Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies• Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies engage with LFM in robust quantitative and qualitative assessments of market linkagepolicies and programs and their outcomes for rural women and men.• Key public sector actors, donors and multilateral agencies leverage evidence and knowledge gained to design improved policies and programs thatfavor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men at a national or regional scale.• Key multilateral agencies leverage evidence and knowledge gained to advocate for wider change with key public, private, donor and multi-lateralpolicy makers that favor the sustained economic inclusion of rural women and men at a global scale.• The CGIAR• The CGIAR adopts/adapts LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of research initiatives on market access in commodityand system CRPs.• The CGIAR adopts/adapts LFM methods and approaches for the design and implementation of research initiatives on Research in Developmentplatforms in commodity and system CRPs.• The CGIAR leverage evidence and knowledge gained from work on Research in Development platforms to design improved CRPs that are moreeffective at contributing to development outcomes in market access and other topics.
  47. 47. Knowledge ManagementKnowledge management and capacity strengthening are two crucialways of engaging decision makers with information produced byDAPA, CIAT and CRPs. Knowledge management objectives andactivities will contribute to enhance CIAT and CRP scientist’s andpartner’s knowledge and practices for engagement strategies indevelopment- focused research. Scientists and their partners willmanage new and diverse ways of collaboration with next and endusers. They will collect, analyze and share information taking intoaccount the needs and benefits of end users and the concern to reachthem effectively. Decision makers (farmers, policy makers, those incharge of resource allocation and of research organizations, planningand management) will be engaged from the start in the knowledgecreation process, and thus be empowered to act upon the knowledgegenerated. Scientists and partners will continually strengthen theircapacities to handle information and knowledge for outcomes andimpact with emphasis on policy influence.
  48. 48. Impact and Strategic Studies• Improved research outcome & impact information use indecision making criteria at CIAT, partners and CRPlevels, i.e. construct relative priorities for researchresources allocation;• At CIAT and CRP level, improved transparency &accountability;• National policies may increasingly favor higher investmentsin agricultural research for development objectives.• Recognition of CIAT scientific leadership and high qualityresearch products which together with the other improvedcharacteristics should lead to greater attractiveness andrelative competitiveness for global, regional and nationalfunding.
  49. 49. PolicySpecific Objectives• Offer support to DAPA’s research themes in the identification of researchfindings that have the biggest potential to impact on policies, informdecision-making and strategic planning according to the demandsidentified (in the short, mid and long term).• Identify the key venues where research outputs should be shared and/orcreate those venues if necessary, in alliance with key actors.• Identify key actors and thought leaders to influence and inform in specificgeographies. Build and formalize strong policy-related networksassociated with DAPAs core mission.• Discuss with decision and policy makers results of impact analysis of policyimplementation (ex-ante and ex-post scenarios and cost-benefit analysis)related to DAPAs core research themes.• Systematize and share science evidence to inform policy formulation forthe key research themes of DAPA, so that the knowledge generated inDAPA can generate improved policies and decisions.
  50. 50. GenderThe Gender Cross-Cutting Group’s strategy and priorities impact policyand decision-making at scale in the following ways:The strategy influences NAPAs and National/Regional DevelopmentPlans; it increases policymakers’ awareness of gender issues related tonational and local policies (with special attention paid to those relatedto climate change, agriculture, forests, water and food security); and itprovides input on gender-sensitive strategies on the social policy level.• Empowered women—making production and marketing decisions• Equal access to resources (land, productioninputs, organizations, income, forest products, etc.)• Acknowledgement and valuation of women’s work (both productiveand reproductive)
  51. 51. Spatial and Agricultural Modelling• Scientific output: The group will publish studies which usemodels to answer questions arising from DAPA’s researchthemes. These will be in ISI indexed journals, and combineinnovative approaches to real-world problems.• Models and tools: When a significant gap is identified interms of modeling tools, then the group will develop (oradapt) new models or tools to fill that gap. An example ofthis is the mechanistic cassava crop model currently beingdeveloped, or the modified EcoCrop model which has beendeveloped and used very successfully in climate changeresearch.• Data products as a result of modeling: The use andapplication of models will produce new datasets which willbe made available in coordination with the Big Data group.
  52. 52. BIG Data• To develop tomorrow’s data products today, puttingCIAT in a competitive advantage with respect to datadriven decision making• To be a support-team that can assist other themes inDAPA with regard to data management (including datamanagement policies), mining, analysis and sharingwith end-users• To support the research themes in implementing veryuser-friendly web tools to communicate with our endusers and share DAPA results• To harmonize and centralize the development of thetools and the management of the data.