Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
16 May 2012Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
The concentration of   GHGs is rising                       Long-term implications                        for the climate ...
The approach
Modelling changes in crop suitability     EcoCrop: how does it work?It evaluates on monthly basis if thereare adequate cli...
Input dataModel training•Present-day climates from WorldClim   = Interpolations of observed data, representative of 1950-2...
Crop suitability is changing….Preliminary analyses (~2009) Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
New analysis:27 crops
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
Potato Current SuitabilityKilling temperature (°C)            -0.80   Growing season (days)             120Minimum absolut...
Potato Current Suitability and Presence
Potato Current Climatic Constraints
Potato Future Suitability and Change                                   2030s SRES-A1B                                   20...
Potato Breeding PrioritiesWater availability     Temperatures
Potato regional impacts               AND Andean Region    NAM   North America               BRA Brazil           NEU   No...
Suitability changesWorld Crop Comparison
Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Africa
Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Latin America           & Caraïbes
amkn.org
Adaptation to ProgressiveClimate Change                                      1 one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue To...
Mer F - Crop suitability analysis
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Mer F - Crop suitability analysis

1,058 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
  • Be the first to comment

Mer F - Crop suitability analysis

  1. 1. 16 May 2012Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
  2. 2. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  3. 3. The approach
  4. 4. Modelling changes in crop suitability EcoCrop: how does it work?It evaluates on monthly basis if thereare adequate climatic conditionswithin a growing season for …and calculates the climatic suitability of thetemperature and precipitation… resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
  5. 5. Input dataModel training•Present-day climates from WorldClim = Interpolations of observed data, representative of 1950-2000•Crop distribution data (GBIF, GENESYS, other sources)•An idea of the crop’s ecology, its distribution, andgrowing season duration•Some literature reviewModel projection•24 different climate models (2030, SRES-A1B), tosample uncertaintiesAdaptation strategy testing•Genetic adaptation by extending ecological ranges
  6. 6. Crop suitability is changing….Preliminary analyses (~2009) Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
  7. 7. New analysis:27 crops
  8. 8. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
  9. 9. Potato Current SuitabilityKilling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
  10. 10. Potato Current Suitability and Presence
  11. 11. Potato Current Climatic Constraints
  12. 12. Potato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
  13. 13. Potato Breeding PrioritiesWater availability Temperatures
  14. 14. Potato regional impacts AND Andean Region NAM North America BRA Brazil NEU North Europe Cen. America CAC and Caribean SAF South Africa Sahel CAF Central Africa SAH South Asia CAS Central Asia SAS CEU Central Europe SEA Southeast Asia EAS East Asia SEU South Europe EAF East Africa WAF West Africa EEU East Europe WEU West Europe WAS West Asia OCE Oceania NAF North Africa SAM South Latin America
  15. 15. Suitability changesWorld Crop Comparison
  16. 16. Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Africa
  17. 17. Suitability changesCrop Comparison in Latin America & Caraïbes
  18. 18. amkn.org
  19. 19. Adaptation to ProgressiveClimate Change 1 one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool Thank you. E-mail: f.mer@cgiar.org

×