In this presentation we report progress on a climate change impact assessment in Guatemala and a comparison of our methodology with alternatives for coffee to the steering comittee of the Coffee and Climate Initiative. http://www.coffeeandclimate.org/

1. Assessing climate change impact in coffee systems P Läderach, O Ovalle, A Eitzinger Presented by Christian Bunn 2nd Coffee & Climate Steering Committee Meeting July 2011

4. Downscaling

6. Brazilian Research

7. Guatemala Results

8. OutlookOutline

9. Context Perceptions “The climate has become inpredictable it rains less and very irregularly, my yield has decreased and I have more pest and disease problems.” Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, January, 2010

10. Context Overall Approach Output Process Inputs Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information Future Climates at Local scale Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling Yield and Quality Impacts Production and Quality Data DIRECT IMPACT Vulnerability Analyses Socio Economic Information ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Alternative Livelihood Strategies INDIRECT SENSITIVITY

12. El Salvador (GMCR)

13. Guatemala (GMCR)

16. Context Specific vulnerability profiles of farmers in Nicaragua Matagalpa is characterized by high exposure (coffee suitability decreases drastically) high sensitivity (high variability in yields) and low adaptive capacity (poor access to credit, poor knowledge on pest and disease management and low diversification). The adaptation strategy focuses on diversification, capacity building, strengthening of the organizations and on the enforcement of environmental laws and development policies for the coffee sector.

17. Methodology Future Climate Climate Change models Differences between regional climate scenarios Overview of climatic change in Guatemala

18. Methodology Future Climate

20. At regional scale relationships between variables are constant

22. 25km grid

24. Crop Modeling Methodology Crop models Introduction to crop prediction models Differences between models First results for Guatemala

25. Crop Modeling Methodology Statistical Regression Models Agro-Ecological Zoning Mechanistic Environmental Niche Models Ecocrop Correlational Environmental Niche Models MaxEnt CaNaSTA Process Model Caf2007

26. AEZ Brazil Methodology (i) an annual water deficit of 0 to 100mm, (ii) average annual temperature between 18°C and 22°C, and a frost risk of less than 25%. Areas with annual temperature means between 22°C and 23°C and a water deficit up to 150mm are considered suboptimal.

28. Altitude range

29. Current Production Areas

30. Soil typesCalibrated Temperature and Precipitación Ranges! WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.org More than 47,000 stations worldwide Temperature

31. Ecocrop Results Guatemala Methodology

32. Maxent - Points of Presence Methodology Maxent Machine Learning Algorithm Principle of Maximum Entropy Uses monthly data Very accurate

33. Maxent Results Guatemala - I Methodology

34. Maxent Results Guatemala - II Methodology

35. Results Guatemala - III Methodology

36. Future work Outlook Production is affected worldwide Can we link impact models with trade models?

39. Assessing climate change impact in coffee systems P Läderach, O Ovalle, A Eitzinger Presented by Christian Bunn 2nd Coffee & Climate Steering Committee Meeting July 2011 Thank you! Peter Läderach (CIAT) p.laderach@cgiar.org Christian Bunn (CIAT) Christian.Bunn@gmail.com