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Results of a Random Forest suitability classification study
Climate change impacts on
cocoa in Ghana
Cooperation with CRIG-COCOBOD
Application of a machine learning tool to cocoa in Ghana
Random Forest classification
Random Forests for classification
• A forest is an ensemble of
trees. The trees are all
slightly different from one
anothe...
Input locations
Input locations
Soil data included
Results
Random Forest classification
Current distribution of suitability classes
for cocoa
Current distribution of suitability classes
for cocoa
AEZ Bioclim A Bioclim B Soils
Type 1 Low annual precipitation Strong...
Current distribution of suitability classes
for cocoa
• MSNW
 Moist semi-decidious North
West
• MSSE
 Moist semi-decidio...
Current distribution of suitability classes
for cocoa
Current distribution of suitability classes
for cocoa
Future distribution of suitability classes for
cocoa
Future distribution of suitability classes for
cocoa
Transition of suitability classes
Climate change impact gradient
What does this mean for yields?
What does this mean for yields?
What does this mean for yields?
What does this mean for yields?
Current2050s
Current2050s
Conclusion
• Cocoa production is shaped by climate and soils
• Cocoa soil characteristics are different from other soils i...
Conclusion
• Yield and production will be affected by climate
change
• Adaptation has to be a priority for the cocoa
sector
Questions
Answers
&
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Climate change impacts on cocoa in Ghana :: Results of a Random Forest suitability classification study

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Updated analysis of the level of climate risk faced by the Ghana cocoa sector.

Published in: Environment
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Climate change impacts on cocoa in Ghana :: Results of a Random Forest suitability classification study

  1. 1. Results of a Random Forest suitability classification study Climate change impacts on cocoa in Ghana
  2. 2. Cooperation with CRIG-COCOBOD
  3. 3. Application of a machine learning tool to cocoa in Ghana Random Forest classification
  4. 4. Random Forests for classification • A forest is an ensemble of trees. The trees are all slightly different from one another. • The output is the mean classification • Very robust against overfitting Is the soil good? Is the dry season long? Is the heat strong? One decision tree Source: Criminisi et al 2013
  5. 5. Input locations
  6. 6. Input locations
  7. 7. Soil data included
  8. 8. Results Random Forest classification
  9. 9. Current distribution of suitability classes for cocoa
  10. 10. Current distribution of suitability classes for cocoa AEZ Bioclim A Bioclim B Soils Type 1 Low annual precipitation Strong dry season Below average soils Type 2 Low temperatures Long dry season Average soils Type 3 Elevated temperatures Reliable precipitation Average soils Type 4 High temp Low seasonal variation Above average soils
  11. 11. Current distribution of suitability classes for cocoa • MSNW  Moist semi-decidious North West • MSSE  Moist semi-decidious South- East • ME  Moist evergreen
  12. 12. Current distribution of suitability classes for cocoa
  13. 13. Current distribution of suitability classes for cocoa
  14. 14. Future distribution of suitability classes for cocoa
  15. 15. Future distribution of suitability classes for cocoa
  16. 16. Transition of suitability classes
  17. 17. Climate change impact gradient
  18. 18. What does this mean for yields?
  19. 19. What does this mean for yields?
  20. 20. What does this mean for yields?
  21. 21. What does this mean for yields? Current2050s
  22. 22. Current2050s
  23. 23. Conclusion • Cocoa production is shaped by climate and soils • Cocoa soil characteristics are different from other soils in the country • Results show four distinct production zones that align with ecological zones in Ghana:  Moist semi-deciduous, subtypes NW, (central),SE  Moist evergreen • The moist evergreen climate (type 4) will be the dominant climate in the future • The moist semi-deciduous (type 1) region in the North West will become marginal
  24. 24. Conclusion • Yield and production will be affected by climate change • Adaptation has to be a priority for the cocoa sector
  25. 25. Questions Answers &

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