Climate change and plant genetic resources for food and agriculture - FAO July 2011

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Presentation made as a discussion opener in the Climate Chance and Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: State of Knowledge, Risks and Opportunities Special Information Seminar in the Commision on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture meetings in FAO, 16th July 2011. Presentation made by Andy Jarvis.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming.** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. **At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively.Source:Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980David B. Lobell1,*, Wolfram Schlenker2,3, and Justin Costa-Roberts1Science magazine
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  • Climate change and plant genetic resources for food and agriculture - FAO July 2011

    1. 1. Climate change and plant genetic resources for food and agriculture: Risks and opportunities<br />Discussion Opener<br />Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Jean Hansen and Christoph Leibing<br />
    2. 2. Risks<br />
    3. 3. The concentration of GHGsisrising<br />Long-term implications<br /> for the climate and for crop suitability<br />
    4. 4. Climatic changes differ geographically<br />
    5. 5. Principal climatic risks<br />30% novel climates (Williams et al. 2007) – combinations of climatic factors never before experienced on earth<br />Changes in averages, and increases in variability<br />Increased maximum temperatures above and beyond what experienced today (Battista and Naylor)<br />+<br />Climate<br />Baseline<br />_<br />Short(change in baseline and variability)Long<br />
    6. 6. Historical impacts on food security<br />Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. <br />Lobell et al (2011) <br />% Yield impact <br />for wheat<br />
    7. 7. Crop suitability is changing<br />Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050<br />
    8. 8. Impacts on wild PGRFA<br />16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct (Jarvis et al. 2008)<br />Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct <br />For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct<br />Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus<br />
    9. 9. Opportunities<br />
    10. 10. Geographic transferral of agricultural practices and technologies<br /><ul><li>Whilst some novel climate, majority of future climates are not novel (70%)
    11. 11. Large pool of PGRFA and associated management practices already available to adapt. They just need to move geographically:
    12. 12. Locally (e.g. technologies and practices move up a mountain)
    13. 13. Regionally
    14. 14. Globally</li></li></ul><li>Greater interdependence for agricultural biodiversity<br />Courtesy: Burke and Lobell<br />
    15. 15. Increased climatic interdependence in 2050: our numerical study<br />98% of countries more similar to others in 2050 than they currently are<br />30% increase in climatic interdependence between countries<br />Greatest increases for bananas, barley, beans, coffee, groundnuts, maize, millets, potatoes, rice, sorghum and wheat, least for cassava<br />Asia and Africa experience greatest increases in climatic interdependence<br />
    16. 16. Conclusions<br />Climate change threatening centuries of site-specific agricultural development<br />Hotter (everywhere), changed rainfall patterns (most places), and novel (30%) climates to be experienced<br />Climate projections indicate increased climatic interdependence between countries and regions<br />Many adaptation options, many coming from PGRFA<br />Resulting in likely increase in PGRFA demand, and increased genetic resource interdependence<br />

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