Deliverables: New geographic interface allowing making queries, the database structure, new blog and communication protocols. New partnerships developed (i.e University of California, AgMIP project, Tropical Legumes project, Monsanto) and successful integration with the GCP’s CropOntology. Generic method and R library created for the analysis of Genotype-by- environment interactions using multi-site trial data and climate databases; two case studies carried out on the use of trial sites data for seasonal forecasting of crop yields (Beans and Potatoes).
CCAFS Adaptation to progressive climate change Highlights 2011/2012
Contact Point meeting Copenhagen April 2012CCAFS: Theme 1 Adapting toProgressive Climate Change Andy Jarvis Theme 1 Leader
2 • 3/21/11 Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Integrated adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems inserted into policy and institutional frameworks
3 • 3/21/11 Theme 1 Strategy Problem definition: DIAGNOSTIC BIO/ENV (2012) DATA SOCIO/E EVALUATION OF CO DATA ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND OBJECTIVES TECHNOLOGIES (2012- 2014) 1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + MODELS LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES adaptation strategies System level CAP. 1.2 RESEARCH Strategies BUILDING SCIENCE BASED (breeding) -> CRPs /GENDER ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL (2012- 2015) STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national
4 • 3/21/11 Climate Analogues: Finding future climates for actual adaptation http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/ The 2030 climate of a maize-growing area near Durban will correspond to the current climate of a major maize-growing area in Argentina. Growers in Durban can learn from these analogous climates how to adapt as their climate shifts. •70% of expected future climates already exist somewhere else •Facilitates exchange of knowledge, technology, and practices between analogue sites •Validates computational models and develops novel research
5 • 3/21/11 Major 2011 Outputs >>A 4 year road map for Objective 1.2 Long term agreement set up with CIRAD, and in conjunction with GRISP and RTB + others on a road map for developing climate-smart breeding strategies Initial results •Initial breeding strategies published for four crops in crop adaptation book (involving 3 CGIAR centres): •Bananas •Beans •Cassava •Potato •Breeding fora held in Ethiopia, December 2011 involving 5 centers
6 • 3/21/11 Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal 20 crops 2483 trials http://www.agtrials .org:8080/ •Calibrates and validates crop models •Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm management, etc. •Improves access technology transfer options •Builds “adaptation packages”
7 • 3/21/11 Participatory SROI: Costing climate change adaptation at the community level •Current top-down models underestimate the cost of adaptation •Comprises two complementary phases with distinct outputs •Matches CC interventions with local resources and priorities Three pilots in Kenya and Senegal identified challenges (attaining seeds and training for agroforestry) and perceived benefits (source of wood, fodder for animals, monetary returns) of adaptation strategies involving interplanting tree species within croplands.
8 • 3/21/11 2011 Center Reports: some highlights •IWMI: Vulnerability in Nile and Volta basins and preliminary analysis of water storage and water allocation policies for adaptation. •IWMI: Policy support in Sri Lanka in design of NAPA •ICARDA: Central Asia household modelling and evaluation of policy responses •CIAT: Adaptation framework for adaptation of food supply chains, including gender component, and applied in 3 countries •Bioversity: matching seeds for needs in multiple countries •Bioversity: Global genetic resource policy for enabling germplasm access and benefit sharing in a changing climate •Worldfish: Adaptation planning in Vietnam aquaculture
9 • 3/21/11 Centers working on similar things without knowing it! •Multi-center technology testing (IRRI, CIAT, ICARDA): salt and heat tolerant rice in the Mekong, water-logging tolerant forage varieties in Latin America, and heat tolerant livestock in the Middle East •Multi center pest and disease risk assessment (CIMMYT, CIAT and ICARDA) for cassava, maize, wheat and barley •Multi center crop breeding priority analysis (CIAT, IRRI, Bioversity, CIP)
10 • 3/21/11 Key challenges for 2012 • Getting beyond diagnosis, and identifying more solutions •Contributing TOGETHER to identify solutions. •Priorities: millions of adaptation options, but are we focusing on the most appropriate? Right now it is a mixed bag, and fairly random • Major knowledge gaps: pest and disease impacts and changes needed in pest management, breeding for resistance etc. • Areas to focus efforts and build up in the portfolio: • System thinking (food system, farming system, socio-economic contexts) •Policy engagement for adaptation plans and strategies, including economics: NAPAs, NAPs •Holistic testing of adaptation options: comparative, complementary