Presentation on the analogue approach that CCAFS have developed.

1. 1 • 3/21/11
The climate analogues
approach
Concepts and application

2. Bonn Contact Point Meeting June 2011
CCAFS: Theme 1 overview
Andy Jarvis
Theme 1 Leader

3. 3 • 3/21/11
The
Challenge

4. 4 • 3/21/11
Problems/Opportunities
Problem: 60-70% more food to
support a growing population….
…..under an uncertain and potentially
unfriendly climate
Countries and communities asking:
What does climate change imply,
what can I do to adapt, how much will
it cost, how do I implement it?
Opportunity: Massive amount of
existing knowledge on technologies
and practices for production, and
increasing food system governance
from local to global level

5. 5 • 3/21/11
Exacerbating the yield gap
From Licker et al, 2010
0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1
Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers
(e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

6. 6 • 3/21/11
Exacerbating the yield gap
Climate change will likely increase difficulties for resource-poor farmers,
thereby increasing the yield gap

7. 7 • 3/21/11
THE VISION
To adapt farming
systems, we need
to:
• Close the
Progressive
production gap
by effectively
using
technologies,
practices and
policies
• Increase the
Adaptation
bar: develop new
ways to increase
food production
potential
• Enable policies
and institutions,
from the farm to
national level

8. 8 • 3/21/11
Adaptive Adjustments Structural Adaptation
Action: Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an
a) Shading add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers
b) Changing varietals have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
c) Changing inputs
Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed”
Result: Improved risk management at coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain,
the farm level, allowing for long-term with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
adaption.
C4
Input Providers Coffee Producers Coffee Federation Wholesale/Retail Consumer
Other Crops

9. 9 • 3/21/11
Transformational Adaptation
Action:
Migrate to keep farming
Change farming systems (agricultural)
Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front
transition costs.
Coffee Producers

10. 10 • 3/21/11
Theme 1 Strategy
Problem definition:
DIAGNOSTIC
BIO/ENV (2012)
DATA
SOCIO/E EVALUATION OF
CO DATA ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND OBJECTIVES
TECHNOLOGIES
(2013- 2014) 1.1 COMMUNITY /
FARMING SYSTEM +
MODELS
LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM
STRATEGIES
adaptation strategies
System or crop level
1.2 RESEARCH Strategies
CAP. SCIENCE BASED (breeding) -> CRPs
BUILDING ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES 1.3 POLICY +
INSTITUTIONAL
(2013- 2015) STRATEGIES
* Food system
* Nat -> sub-national

11. 11 • 3/21/11
Approaches and impact pathways
Development partners, Private
Observation using climate
variability
Sector, Policy Outreach
Analysis of community
processes and responses,
incl. social differentiation
Data and
evidence
based
strategies
and solutions
Village to national level
Climate science Setting priorities
Agricultural modelling

12. 12 • 3/21/11

13. Creative thinking & wild bets
13 • 3/21/11
Forcing by target environment
Intelligent CHANGE
Strategic choices choice of
population
Knowledg s TPE
Ideotype analysis
e&
concept Future
intuition Intelligent
systems
phenotypin
Methodology g designs
Gene/allel Function,
Modeling
ediscovery regulation,
Search Biparental phénotype
CCAFS (CRP7)Diversity Pops
Panels Marker
Marker validation,
activity 1.2: developmt Integration
,
Breeding strategies .
GxExM
& ideotypes for ventiona
Molecula
Con-
r
2030 horizon
Application breeding
l
breeding

14. 14 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Suitability

15. 15 • 3/21/11
Current Climatic Constraints

16. 16 • 3/21/11
Future Suitability

17. 17 • 3/21/11
Benefits of breeding options

18. 18 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial
database(agtrial.org)
Effect of +1ºC Sites with >23ºC
warming on would suffer
even if optimally
yield managed
20,000+
maize trials
in 123
research
sites More than 20%
loss in sites
with >20ºC,
under drought
Lobell et al. 2011

19. 19 • 3/21/11
>> Multi-site agricultural trial
database(agtrials.org)
New data
• Over 3,000 trials
• 16 crops
• 20 countries
• > 15 international
and national
institutions

20. (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
20 • 3/21/11
Importance & Potential
• Collating input climate and agricultural
data
• Design of experiments
• Calibration, validation and crop model
runs
• Exploration of adaptation options
– Genetic improvement
– On-farm management practices
• Test them via modelling
• Build “adaptation packages”
• Assess technology transfer options

21. 21 • 3/21/11
>> Example for beans

22. 22 • 3/21/11
Next steps with Agtrials
• Continue to develop the infrastructure
for sharing trial and evaluation data
• Analyse data in agtrials: GxE analyses
at crop and variety level
• Continue to populate with data – the
more data, the better our understanding
of varietal level adaptation, GxE etc.

23. 23 • 3/21/11
Farmers’ Network for Participatory
Evaluation
Goal: To improve farmers’
access to knowledge
and genetic materials;
and build their
experimentation skills
– More than 70 farmers’
field trials at 4 project
sites in IGP
– Farmers selected
varieties based on their
perspective
23

24. 24 • 3/21/11
SOCIAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT
This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of SROI and to outline how
COMMUNITY BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTING
This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of
Social Return on Investment (SROI) and to outline
the pilot framework as applied in Kisumu Kenya in
July of 2011.
CONTENT BAR:
JUSTIFICATION | WHAT IS SROI? | WORKSHOP | SROI INTERVIEWS | ANALYSIS

25. 25 • 3/21/11
RESOURCES
The SROI Network:
http://www.thesroinetwork.org/
>> The publication, “A guide to Social
Return on Investment", has
served as the guiding resource in Adobe Acrobat
developing this pilot series. The Document
document has been embedded in this
PPT for reference.
SROI - Kochiel, Kenya – July 2011 (All photos by Anna Wikman)

26. 26 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
What CCAFS output?
The Climate Change Adaptation
and Mitigation Knowledge
Network platform is a portal for
accessing and sharing
agricultural A&M knowledge.
Why is it useful?
It links farmers’ realities on the ground
with promising scientific research
outputs, to inspire new ideas and
highlight current challenge.

27. 27 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up
What CCAFS output?
Short climate change
photofilms highlighting
the impact of a two
degree rise in
temperature on
smallholder agriculture

28. 28 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future
What CCAFS output?
The climate analogue tool
identifies the range of places
whose current climates
correspond to the future of a
chosen locality
Why is it useful?
Choice of sites for cross-site
farmer visits and participatory
crop and livestock trials

29. 29 • 3/21/11
The Analogue Concept
• We heavily rely on models to tell us
what the future holds
– GCM/RCM projections
– Crop models, household models, farming
system models
• Few take into account human adaptive
capacity, and social and cultural factors
that contribute to decision making

30. 30 • 3/21/11
Novel climates
• Williams et al. (2007) state that there is
likely to be 30% novel climates under
climate change
• That means that there are 70% of
already existing climates projected to
2100 for sites!
• Analogues: Use spatial variability in
climate as a means of having a real
experiment of what the future holds for a
site

31. 31 • 3/21/11
Benefits of an analogue
approach
• Large uncertainties remain regarding future
projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on
farming systems, especially at the local level.
• The adaptive capacity of communities is a factor
rarely taken into account in the global/regional models
on which policy makers often rely
• The use of climate analogues for locating future
climates today can ground models in field-based
realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of
adaptation capacity and supporting the identification
of appropriate interventions.

32. 32 • 3/21/11
Analogue options
Where can I • are at present … analogous to my • at present?
find sites • were in the past selected site… • in the past (z
that… (x year) year)?
• are projected to • in the future
be in the future (projected n
(y year) year)?
Spatial analogues
Temporal analogues

33. Karnal (India)
33 • 3/21/11
• Rainy season from June to September

34. 34 • 3/21/11
Why we think this an important
approach
• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange
of knowledge
• Permitting validation of computational
models and trialing of new technologies/
techniques
• Learning from history

35. 35 • 3/21/11
AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE
ANALOGUE APPROACH TO
LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

36. 36 • 3/21/11
Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal
- CCAFS site
- 600 mm annual rainfall
- Min. Temp. 14.8°C
- Max. Temp. 39.1°C
- Main crops:
- Millet
- Maize
- Peanuts
Kaffrine, Senegal - Sorghum
(x:-15.54, - Sesame
y:14.106)
-Climate Change threats:
Erratic Rainfall
-Socio-economic
constraints:
-High poverty level
- Low access to
capital
- No attractive market

37. 37 • 3/21/11
Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal
Average Climate Change Trends:
- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm
- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C

38. 38 • 3/21/11
The Model: EcoCrop
• So, how does it work?
It evaluates on monthly basis if
there are adequate climatic
conditions within a growing season
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the
for temperature and precipitation…
resulting interaction between rainfall and
temperature…

39. 39 • 3/21/11
Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal

40. 40 • 3/21/11
Where can we find a region with similar climatic
conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?
Climate - Mean of the
similarity dissimilarity index
of 24 GCMs
between the
starting site
Kaffrine, Senegal
with the entire
High world
climate
similarity - Climate
parameters:
-Monthly temperature
- Monthly
rainfall
- Scenario A1B,
2030

41. 41 • 3/21/11 Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites
CCAFS site with
minimum value of
dissimilarity with the
climate of Kaffrine,
Senegal
= Tougou, Burkina
Faso
Best consistency
between the 24
Fakara is the most likely
GCM’s
analogue of Kaffrine
= Fakara , Niger
The current climate
of Fakara is similar
to the future
projected climate in
Kaffrine

42. 42 • 3/21/11
Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger
- CCAFS site
-500 mm annual rainfall
- Min. Temp. 15.7°C
- Max. Temp. 41.3°C
- Main crops:
- Millet
- Beans
- Leafy vegetables
- Maize
- Sorghum
Fakara, Niger
- Climate Change threats:
(x:2.687,
Drought
y:13.517)
- Socio-economic
constraints:
- Low level of
infrastructure
- Limited access to
market

43. 43 • 3/21/11
Change in climate, 2020 – Fakara, Niger
Average Climate Change Trends:
- Decrease in precipitation from 615 mm to 539.53 mm
- Increase in main daily temperature range of 1.3°C

44. 44 • 3/21/11
Comparison of current conditions
Current Fakara, Niger = Future
Kaffrine, Senegal
conditions condition of Kaffrine
Transition zone from the
Zone Sahelien towards the Sudan Within the Sahel
Savannah zone
Altitude 15 m 225 m
Annual
rainfall 600 mm 500 mm
average
Minimum
14.8 °C 15.7 °C
Temperature
Maximum
39.1 °C 41.3 °C
Temperature
Millet Millet
Maize Beans
Main crops Peanuts Leafy vegetables
Sorghum Maize
Sesame Sorghum
Length of
Growing 130 days 95 days
period
Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil
Soil FAO
Ferric Luvisols
High poverty level Luvic Arenosols
Class
Low access to
Socio- Low level of infrastructure
capital
economic Limited access to
No attractive market
constraints market

45. 45 • 3/21/11
Comparison of main crops
Kaffrine, Fakara,
Senegal Niger
Millet
Millet Beans
Maize Leafy
Peanuts vegetables
Sorghum Maize
Sesame Sorghum

46. 46 • 3/21/11
Agtrial database - Application
Kontela, Mali is another potential
analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal
Yield data available in the Agtrials
database:
http://www.agtrials.org:85/
The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali
could help us to know the future
sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
Sorghum yield data
Sorghum N Lime Grain yield
K (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha)
Variety (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (t/ha)
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68
CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10
CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55
CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33
CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54
CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06
CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08

47. 47 • 3/21/11
Agtrial database - Application
Millet Yield data
Senegal Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha)
Nyamkombo 0.87
Okashana-2 1.09
PMV-2 0.78
PMV-3 0.86
SDMV89003 0.88
SDMV89007 0.82
SDMV90031 1.16
SDMV91018 0.91
SDMV92033 0.75
SDMV92038 0.82
SDMV95032 1.03
SDMV95033 0.93
SDMV95045 1.13
SDMV96075 0.89
SDMV97007 0.87
SDMV97011 0.87
Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential TSPM91018 0.69
analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal SDMV89005 0.90
SDMV92035 0.51
SDMV92037 1.01
Yield data available in the Agtrial database: SDMV95009 0.77
http://www.agtrials.org:85/ SDMV95014 0.68
SDMV95025 0.73
ZPMV92005 0.50
The MILLET yield data in Homboro, ZPMV94001 0.60
Tanzania could help us to know the future
millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.

48. 48 • 3/21/11
Conclusions and a word of warning
• We believe the analogue approach as an
interesting tool for analysing impacts and
identifying and supporting adaptation
strategies
• You are the first to see this, and there are still
some glitches, plus we continue to improve
methods based on calibration and validation
• We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for
improvement, and working with you in the use
of the tool to continue its improvement

49. 49 • 3/21/11
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