CCAFS The Analogues Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

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Presentation on the analogue approach that CCAFS have developed.

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  • Optional given the time constraints
  • Where the bar shows yield gap fractions, so green (0) = no gap between actual production and potential production; and red (1) = complete yield gap.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE.
  • Need to link those with objective 1.1; 1.2 and 1.3 somehow …!!!
  • IGP is food basket of South Asia. Climate change threatens wheat and rice production in the IGP due to heat stress as well as irrigation uncertainties. This experimental network has advantage for researchers as well as farmers. RESEARCHERS, project provides on-farm data and visualization of how different varieties fare. Also allows for synthesis of farmers’ local knowledge and varietal preferences. For PARTICIPATING FARMERS, helps improve stocks of adaptive varieties in their local seed systems, and better knowledge to share via farmers’ experimentation networks Projects located in 4 states across the IGP: Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
  • The current suitability is closed to 100% because we are only using a range of temperature and precipitation and we don’t consider other parameters as soil,…. We did the ecocrop analysis with the average of annual precipitation and not with taking in account the crop seasonnality (which could be more exact).
  • Maybe this slide is not really usefull because we want to compare the current climate of Niger with the future climate of Senegal then it is not crucial to know the future climate of Niger.
  • CCAFS The Analogues Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

    1. 1 • 3/21/11 The climate analogues approach Concepts and application
    2. Bonn Contact Point Meeting June 2011CCAFS: Theme 1 overview Andy Jarvis Theme 1 Leader
    3. 3 • 3/21/11 TheChallenge
    4. 4 • 3/21/11 Problems/OpportunitiesProblem: 60-70% more food tosupport a growing population….…..under an uncertain and potentiallyunfriendly climateCountries and communities asking:What does climate change imply,what can I do to adapt, how much willit cost, how do I implement it?Opportunity: Massive amount ofexisting knowledge on technologiesand practices for production, andincreasing food system governancefrom local to global level
    5. 5 • 3/21/11 Exacerbating the yield gap From Licker et al, 2010 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1 Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
    6. 6 • 3/21/11 Exacerbating the yield gap Climate change will likely increase difficulties for resource-poor farmers, thereby increasing the yield gap
    7. 7 • 3/21/11 THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: • Close the Progressive production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies • Increase the Adaptation bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential • Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
    8. 8 • 3/21/11 Adaptive Adjustments Structural Adaptation Action: Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an a) Shading add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers b) Changing varietals have adapted their production system to a changing climate. c) Changing inputs Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” Result: Improved risk management at coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, the farm level, allowing for long-term with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. adaption. C4Input Providers Coffee Producers Coffee Federation Wholesale/Retail Consumer Other Crops
    9. 9 • 3/21/11 Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs. Coffee Producers
    10. 10 • 3/21/11 Theme 1 Strategy Problem definition: DIAGNOSTIC BIO/ENV (2012) DATA SOCIO/E EVALUATION OF CO DATA ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND OBJECTIVES TECHNOLOGIES (2013- 2014) 1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + MODELS LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES adaptation strategies System or crop level 1.2 RESEARCH Strategies CAP. SCIENCE BASED (breeding) -> CRPs BUILDING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL (2013- 2015) STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national
    11. 11 • 3/21/11 Approaches and impact pathways Development partners, Private Observation using climate variability Sector, Policy Outreach Analysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation Data and evidence based strategies and solutions Village to national levelClimate science Setting prioritiesAgricultural modelling
    12. 12 • 3/21/11
    13. Creative thinking & wild bets 13 • 3/21/11 Forcing by target environment Intelligent CHANGEStrategic choices choice of population Knowledg s TPE Ideotype analysis e& concept Future intuition Intelligent systems phenotypin Methodology g designs Gene/allel Function, Modeling ediscovery regulation, Search Biparental phénotype CCAFS (CRP7)Diversity Pops Panels Marker Marker validation, activity 1.2: developmt Integration , Breeding strategies . GxExM & ideotypes for ventiona Molecula Con- r 2030 horizonApplication breeding l breeding
    14. 14 • 3/21/11 Current Climatic Suitability
    15. 15 • 3/21/11 Current Climatic Constraints
    16. 16 • 3/21/11 Future Suitability
    17. 17 • 3/21/11 Benefits of breeding options
    18. 18 • 3/21/11 >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) Effect of +1ºC Sites with >23ºC warming on would suffer even if optimally yield managed 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
    19. 19 • 3/21/11 >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org) New data• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 internationaland nationalinstitutions
    20. (c) Neil Palmer (CIAT) 20 • 3/21/11 Importance & Potential • Collating input climate and agricultural data • Design of experiments • Calibration, validation and crop model runs • Exploration of adaptation options – Genetic improvement – On-farm management practices • Test them via modelling • Build “adaptation packages” • Assess technology transfer options
    21. 21 • 3/21/11 >> Example for beans
    22. 22 • 3/21/11 Next steps with Agtrials • Continue to develop the infrastructure for sharing trial and evaluation data • Analyse data in agtrials: GxE analyses at crop and variety level • Continue to populate with data – the more data, the better our understanding of varietal level adaptation, GxE etc.
    23. 23 • 3/21/11 Farmers’ Network for Participatory Evaluation Goal: To improve farmers’ access to knowledge and genetic materials; and build their experimentation skills – More than 70 farmers’ field trials at 4 project sites in IGP – Farmers selected varieties based on their perspective 23
    24. 24 • 3/21/11 SOCIAL RETURN ON INVESTMENTThis PPT is designed to introduce the concept of SROI and to outline how COMMUNITY BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTING This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of Social Return on Investment (SROI) and to outline the pilot framework as applied in Kisumu Kenya in July of 2011.CONTENT BAR: JUSTIFICATION | WHAT IS SROI? | WORKSHOP | SROI INTERVIEWS | ANALYSIS
    25. 25 • 3/21/11 RESOURCES The SROI Network: http://www.thesroinetwork.org/ >> The publication, “A guide to Social Return on Investment", has served as the guiding resource in Adobe Acrobat developing this pilot series. The Document document has been embedded in this PPT for reference. SROI - Kochiel, Kenya – July 2011 (All photos by Anna Wikman)
    26. 26 • 3/21/11Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform What CCAFS output? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. Why is it useful? It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
    27. 27 • 3/21/11Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up What CCAFS output? Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture
    28. 28 • 3/21/11Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future What CCAFS output? The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality Why is it useful? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
    29. 29 • 3/21/11 The Analogue Concept • We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds – GCM/RCM projections – Crop models, household models, farming system models • Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making
    30. 30 • 3/21/11 Novel climates • Williams et al. (2007) state that there is likely to be 30% novel climates under climate change • That means that there are 70% of already existing climates projected to 2100 for sites! • Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site
    31. 31 • 3/21/11 Benefits of an analogue approach • Large uncertainties remain regarding future projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on farming systems, especially at the local level. • The adaptive capacity of communities is a factor rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on which policy makers often rely • The use of climate analogues for locating future climates today can ground models in field-based realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate interventions.
    32. 32 • 3/21/11 Analogue options Where can I • are at present … analogous to my • at present? find sites • were in the past selected site… • in the past (z that… (x year) year)? • are projected to • in the future be in the future (projected n (y year) year)? Spatial analogues Temporal analogues
    33. Karnal (India)33 • 3/21/11 • Rainy season from June to September
    34. 34 • 3/21/11 Why we think this an important approach • Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge • Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/ techniques • Learning from history
    35. 35 • 3/21/11 AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE ANALOGUE APPROACH TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA
    36. 36 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal - CCAFS site - 600 mm annual rainfall - Min. Temp. 14.8°C - Max. Temp. 39.1°C - Main crops: - Millet - Maize - Peanuts Kaffrine, Senegal - Sorghum (x:-15.54, - Sesame y:14.106) -Climate Change threats: Erratic Rainfall -Socio-economic constraints: -High poverty level - Low access to capital - No attractive market
    37. 37 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm - Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
    38. 38 • 3/21/11 The Model: EcoCrop • So, how does it work?It evaluates on monthly basis ifthere are adequate climaticconditions within a growing season …and calculates the climatic suitability of thefor temperature and precipitation… resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    39. 39 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal
    40. 40 • 3/21/11 Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030? Climate - Mean of the similarity dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entireHigh worldclimatesimilarity - Climate parameters: -Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall - Scenario A1B, 2030
    41. 41 • 3/21/11 Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso Best consistency between the 24 Fakara is the most likely GCM’s analogue of Kaffrine = Fakara , Niger The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine
    42. 42 • 3/21/11 Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger - CCAFS site -500 mm annual rainfall - Min. Temp. 15.7°C - Max. Temp. 41.3°C - Main crops: - Millet - Beans - Leafy vegetables - Maize - Sorghum Fakara, Niger - Climate Change threats: (x:2.687, Drought y:13.517) - Socio-economic constraints: - Low level of infrastructure - Limited access to market
    43. 43 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Fakara, Niger Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 615 mm to 539.53 mm - Increase in main daily temperature range of 1.3°C
    44. 44 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions Current Fakara, Niger = Future Kaffrine, Senegal conditions condition of Kaffrine Transition zone from the Zone Sahelien towards the Sudan Within the Sahel Savannah zone Altitude 15 m 225 m Annual rainfall 600 mm 500 mm average Minimum 14.8 °C 15.7 °CTemperature Maximum 39.1 °C 41.3 °CTemperature Millet Millet Maize BeansMain crops Peanuts Leafy vegetables Sorghum Maize Sesame Sorghum Length of Growing 130 days 95 days period Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil Soil FAO Ferric Luvisols High poverty level Luvic Arenosols Class Low access to Socio- Low level of infrastructure capital economic Limited access to No attractive marketconstraints market
    45. 45 • 3/21/11 Comparison of main crops Kaffrine, Fakara, Senegal Niger Millet Millet Beans Maize Leafy Peanuts vegetables Sorghum Maize Sesame Sorghum
    46. 46 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal Yield data available in the Agtrials database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/ The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Sorghum yield data Sorghum N Lime Grain yield K (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Variety (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (t/ha) CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08
    47. 47 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application Millet Yield data Senegal Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha) Nyamkombo 0.87 Okashana-2 1.09 PMV-2 0.78 PMV-3 0.86 SDMV89003 0.88 SDMV89007 0.82 SDMV90031 1.16 SDMV91018 0.91 SDMV92033 0.75 SDMV92038 0.82 SDMV95032 1.03 SDMV95033 0.93 SDMV95045 1.13 SDMV96075 0.89 SDMV97007 0.87 SDMV97011 0.87 Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential TSPM91018 0.69 analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal SDMV89005 0.90 SDMV92035 0.51 SDMV92037 1.01 Yield data available in the Agtrial database: SDMV95009 0.77 http://www.agtrials.org:85/ SDMV95014 0.68 SDMV95025 0.73 ZPMV92005 0.50 The MILLET yield data in Homboro, ZPMV94001 0.60 Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.
    48. 48 • 3/21/11Conclusions and a word of warning • We believe the analogue approach as an interesting tool for analysing impacts and identifying and supporting adaptation strategies • You are the first to see this, and there are still some glitches, plus we continue to improve methods based on calibration and validation • We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for improvement, and working with you in the use of the tool to continue its improvement
    49. 49 • 3/21/11 stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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