Andy J Gap analysis and crop wild relatives bellagio sept 2010

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Presentation made by Andy Jarvis in the workshop on Adapting agriculture to climate change: The role of crop wild relatives, in Bellagio, Italy, 7th-9th September 2010.

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Andy J Gap analysis and crop wild relatives bellagio sept 2010

  1. 1. © Neil Palmer (CIAT)<br />Gap Analysis<br />Andy Jarvis, Julián Ramírez, Nora Castañeda, Robert Hijmans and Jacob Van Etten <br />
  2. 2. Why Gap Analysis?<br />Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity<br />Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused<br />Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool<br />
  3. 3. To know what you don’t have, you first need to know what you do have….and that’s where things already get complex<br />
  4. 4. Welcome to database hell<br />
  5. 5.
  6. 6. The visible global system<br />
  7. 7. The Gap Analysis process<br /><ul><li>Identifyinggaps</li></ul>Proxy for:<br /><ul><li> Diversity
  8. 8. Possibly biotic traits</li></ul>Proxy for:<br /><ul><li> Range of traits</li></ul>Proxy for:<br /><ul><li> Abiotic traits</li></li></ul><li>WHEAT<br />MILLET<br />
  9. 9. The Gap Analysis pathway<br />Taxonomy review<br />Data gathering<br />Georeferentiaton<br />Environmental<br />data gathering<br />Gap Analysis<br />process<br />Final<br />recommendations<br />
  10. 10. An example in Phaseolus <br />
  11. 11. Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic<br />
  12. 12. Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon<br />
  13. 13. Geographic coverage: Potential<br />P. leptostachyus<br />
  14. 14. Geographic coverage: Taxon priorities<br />
  15. 15. Conserved ex situ richness versus potential<br />
  16. 16. Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic<br />
  17. 17. “Validation”: The man versus the machine<br />
  18. 18. Model priorities versus expert priorities<br />
  19. 19. Gap Analysis<br /><ul><li>http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GapAnalysis/</li></li></ul><li>Methodology and code<br />Methodology<br />Code<br />
  20. 20. Taxon-level and genepool level priorities<br />
  21. 21. Wild Vigna collecting priorities<br />Spatial analysis on current conserved materials<br />*Gaps* in current collections<br />Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas<br />8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species<br />
  22. 22.
  23. 23. Even better: resistance distance<br />McRae, B.H. 2006. Isolation by resistance. Evolution 6(8), 1551-1561.<br />
  24. 24. Drunk genes<br />
  25. 25.
  26. 26. Threats<br />
  27. 27. CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change<br />
  28. 28. CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change<br />
  29. 29. CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change<br />
  30. 30. More immediate threats….<br />
  31. 31.
  32. 32. Conclusions and open-ended issues<br />Gap analysis can focus priorities for collecting, and cost/benefit lies in collecting multiple genepools simultaneously<br />But, analysis as good as input data<br />If you can’t see the data, is the collection valid?<br />Multiple methods available<br />Key question: what is a “complete” collection?<br />

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