EUCARPIA: Pre-Breeding: Fishing in the genepool, Sweden June 2013Genetic resources and traits toaddress climate change
TheChallenge
The concentration ofGHGs is risingLong-term implicationsfor the climate and forcrop suitability
No matter what, change is upon us
Historical impacts on food security% Yield impactfor wheatObserved changes in growing seasontemperature for crop growingre...
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
In order to meetglobaldemands, we willneed60-70%more foodby 2050.Food security is at risk
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate changeand other global trends will endangeragriculture, food security, and rurall...
CO2 Fertilisation• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with greatpotential for some crops
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
Message 2:With new challenges also comenew opportunities.
Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of theworld will experience novel combinations of clim...
And also non-linear responses of cropsto climates•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposedto te...
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
Potato Current SuitabilityKiling temperature (°C) -0.80Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75Minimum optimum temperature (...
Potato Current Suitability and Presence
Potato Current Climatic Constraints
Potato Future Suitability and Change2030s SRES-A1B2030s SRES-A1B
Rop-Cumulative Top-CumulativeHeat and drought?
Potato Impacts by CountriesChange in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratioAND Andean Region EAS East Asia...
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
It evaluates on monthly basis if thereare adequate climatic conditionswithin a growing season fortemperature and precipita...
Current suitability
Current climatic constraint
What will this mean for cassava in 2030?
Heat and drought?Not for cassavaDrought tolerance willpush adaptation upinto SahelBig gains also fromcold tolerance –despi...
The Rambo root!
But what about other staples?The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean
Cassava suitability change comparedwith other staples• Cassava consistently outperforms otherstaples in terms of changes i...
Drought and heat?
Message 3:Different breeding challenges for differentcrops, in different countries – no silverbullet!
Outlook for Genetic Resource• Increased demand:looking beyond currentcrop genetic base• Greater GRinterdependencebetween c...
Adapting Agriculture to Climate ChangeCollecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild RelativesprojectFishing in the genepo...
Major biodiversity loss predicted
CWR supporting adaptation but alsothreatened by climate change
First strategy: mitigate emissions!
Second strategy: Safeguard!
Consideration in breeding for CC• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures willincrease, rainfall likely to chan...
http://www.slideshare.net/ciatdapa/http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.orghttp://www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for e-bulletins, twitter: @...
Fishing in the genepool: Genetic resources and traits to address climate change
Fishing in the genepool: Genetic resources and traits to address climate change
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Fishing in the genepool: Genetic resources and traits to address climate change

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Presentation on the challenges of climate change to agriculture and the types of breeding strategies required. Delivered in the EUCARPIA meeting in Malmo, Sweden on 12th june 2013.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming.** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. **At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively.Source:Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980David B. Lobell1,*, Wolfram Schlenker2,3, and Justin Costa-Roberts1Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Fishing in the genepool: Genetic resources and traits to address climate change

    1. 1. EUCARPIA: Pre-Breeding: Fishing in the genepool, Sweden June 2013Genetic resources and traits toaddress climate change
    2. 2. TheChallenge
    3. 3. The concentration ofGHGs is risingLong-term implicationsfor the climate and forcrop suitability
    4. 4. No matter what, change is upon us
    5. 5. Historical impacts on food security% Yield impactfor wheatObserved changes in growing seasontemperature for crop growingregions,1980-2008.Lobell et al (2011)
    6. 6. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
    7. 7. In order to meetglobaldemands, we willneed60-70%more foodby 2050.Food security is at risk
    8. 8. Message 1:In the coming decades, climate changeand other global trends will endangeragriculture, food security, and rurallivelihoods.
    9. 9. CO2 Fertilisation• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with greatpotential for some crops
    10. 10. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
    11. 11. Message 2:With new challenges also comenew opportunities.
    12. 12. Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of theworld will experience novel combinations of climate
    13. 13. And also non-linear responses of cropsto climates•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposedto temperatures >30˚C•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degreeSchlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS
    14. 14. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    15. 15. Potato Current SuitabilityKiling temperature (°C) -0.80Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00Growing season (days) 120Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
    16. 16. Potato Current Suitability and Presence
    17. 17. Potato Current Climatic Constraints
    18. 18. Potato Future Suitability and Change2030s SRES-A1B2030s SRES-A1B
    19. 19. Rop-Cumulative Top-CumulativeHeat and drought?
    20. 20. Potato Impacts by CountriesChange in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratioAND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West EuropeCAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
    21. 21. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    22. 22. It evaluates on monthly basis if thereare adequate climatic conditionswithin a growing season fortemperature and precipitation……and calculates the climatic suitability of theresulting interaction between rainfall andtemperature…What will this mean for cassava?Growing season (days) 240Killing temperature (°C) 0Minimum absolutetemperature (°C)15.0Minimum optimumtemperature (°C)22.0Maximum optimumtemperature (°C)32.0Maximum absolutetemperature (°C)45.0Minimum absoluterainfall (mm)300Minimum optimumrainfall (mm)800Maximum optimumrainfall (mm)2200Maximum absoluterainfall (mm)2800
    23. 23. Current suitability
    24. 24. Current climatic constraint
    25. 25. What will this mean for cassava in 2030?
    26. 26. Heat and drought?Not for cassavaDrought tolerance willpush adaptation upinto SahelBig gains also fromcold tolerance –despite climatechange, this continuesto be the majorconstraint globally
    27. 27. The Rambo root!
    28. 28. But what about other staples?The Rambo root versus Mr. Bean
    29. 29. Cassava suitability change comparedwith other staples• Cassava consistently outperforms otherstaples in terms of changes in suitability
    30. 30. Drought and heat?
    31. 31. Message 3:Different breeding challenges for differentcrops, in different countries – no silverbullet!
    32. 32. Outlook for Genetic Resource• Increased demand:looking beyond currentcrop genetic base• Greater GRinterdependencebetween countries:Future climate for agiven country moresimilar to othercountries
    33. 33. Adapting Agriculture to Climate ChangeCollecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild RelativesprojectFishing in the genepoolwith the NET!
    34. 34. Major biodiversity loss predicted
    35. 35. CWR supporting adaptation but alsothreatened by climate change
    36. 36. First strategy: mitigate emissions!
    37. 37. Second strategy: Safeguard!
    38. 38. Consideration in breeding for CC• Inherent uncertainty in futures, BUT, temperatures willincrease, rainfall likely to change, greater variability in many parts ofthe world• Climate affects multiple factors, all need to be considered:– Growing season timing, length of growing season– Pests and disease patterns (big gap in knowledge)– Crop distribution, affecting other non-climate related traits andconstraints – e.g. soil-related constraints– Crop physiology, crop development phases speed up etc.• Models can help priority set, but not provide final answers. Dataand analysis can set a context – real biological scientists then needto decide!• Genetic resources: Yet more reason to conserve them, outlook formore use
    39. 39. http://www.slideshare.net/ciatdapa/http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.orghttp://www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for e-bulletins, twitter: @cgiarclimate

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