A vision for climate smart crops in 2030: Potatoes and their wild relatives
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Presentation made in CIP (Lima) on a vision for climate smart crops in 2030, focussing on potato. Presented in the Global Crop Diversity Trust and CIP organised meeting on "Expert consultation workshop on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato".
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A vision for climate smart crops in 2030: Potatoes and their wild relatives
- 3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
- 4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
- 5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
- 7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
- 8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
- 10. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
- 11. Program Design
- 16. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
- 18. Development of strategies Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design ; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011) Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding . (2012) Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015) Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014) Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations , universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)
- 19. Dissemination of strategies Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015) Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015) Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2. Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)
- 21. Initial Analysis of Vulnerability Andy Jarvis “ Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6-8 December 2011
- 22. Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
- 26. Changes in Average and Variability around the mean + Climate Timescale Short ( change in baseline and variability ) Long Baseline _
- 29. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050 Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
- 36. Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
- 37. Potato Current Suitability Kiling temperature ( ° C) -0.80 Minimum absolute temperature ( ° C) 3.75 Minimum optimum temperature ( ° C) 12.40 Maximum optimum temperature ( ° C) 17.80 Maximum absolute temperature ( ° C) 24.00 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
- 38. Potato Current Suitability and Presence
- 39. Potato Current Climatic Constraints
- 40. Potato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
- 41. Rop -Cumulative Top-Cumulative Potato Breeding Priorities
- 42. Potato Impacts by Countries Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
- 45. The critical role of crop wild relatives in ensuring long-term food security and their need for conservation © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
- 47. Threats
- 51. Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions
- 52. Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts
- 53. CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
- 54. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives project
- 55. How well conserved are crop wild relatives? Gap Analysis © Neil Palmer (CIAT)
- 57. An example in Phaseolus
- 58. Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
- 59. Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
- 60. Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
- 61. Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
- 62. “ Validation”: The man versus the machine
- 63. Model priorities versus expert priorities
- 64. Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
- 66. stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate
- 68. Sweetpotato Current Suitability Kiling temperature ( ° C) -0.4 Minimum absolute temperature ( ° C) 2.4 Minimum optimum temperature ( ° C) 10.2 Maximum optimum temperature ( ° C) 23.8 Maximum absolute temperature ( ° C) 30.0 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500 Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760
- 69. Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence
- 70. Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints
- 71. Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
- 72. Rop -Cumulative Top-Cumulative Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities
- 73. Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe
Editor's Notes
- For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
- Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
- Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
- Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
- RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
- RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
- RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
- As temperature increases, an erratic humidity, the likelihood of pest and diseases is expected to augment. Late blight is a devastating water mold that affect potato and one of the main causes of the well-known Great Irish famine. LB is climbing up the Andean highlands already. This slides shows the scenario for 2050 for Peru and the second one highlights the areas above 3000 m asl where today is virtually absent and where only poor farmers crop the land.
- PTM is another major potato disease of global importance. The prognosis for the near future is not good, as can be seen from the scenarios mapped.
- Collaboration with RBG Kew