P. Laderach. Coffee Under Pressure Cup Ciat Sfl Meeting

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P. Laderach. Coffee Under Pressure Cup Ciat Sfl Meeting

  1. 1. Coffee Under Pressure (CUP) Sustainable Food Laboratory (SFL) Meeting 18 of March 2010, Monte de la Cruz, Costa Rica Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address]
  2. 2. OUTLINE - Objectives - CIAT - Partners - Methodologies - Results - Work Plan
  3. 3. Coffee Under Pressure CUP A: To predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas E: To accompany farmer organizations and engage supply chain actors to design adequate scenarios B: To evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity C: To identify alternative crops suitable under predicted climate change scenarios for key regions D: To evaluate the implications of changes in coffee quality and quantity studies on social parameters (income, poverty and equity)
  4. 4. CIAT - International Centre for Tropical Agriculture
  5. 5. CIAT - International Centre for Tropical Agriculture CIAT: part of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CGIAR Mission: Reduce hunger and poverty in the tropic through scientific research leading to new technology and knowledge DAPA: Decision and Policy Analysis What we do: Spatial analysis, climate change modelling impact analysis …etc.
  6. 6. The Partners - Catholic Relief Services CRS CRS is the official relief and development agency of the Catholic community in the United States Beneficiaries: More than 7000 farmers in Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua. CAFE Livelihoods: Improve livelihoods of farmers in Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua through improved coffee productivity, quality and marketing
  7. 7. The Partners - Cropster.org Cropster is a web-based traceability, quality management and marketing platform Cropster will make sure that the production, quality and farm data will be available for the entire supply chain and for research Cropster will feed back information back to the supply chain to assure improved decision making and support adaptation strategies
  8. 8. Why do we know that the climate is changing?
  9. 9. Why do we know that the climate is changing?
  10. 10. The Facts
  11. 11. METHODOLOGY - Objective A A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas
  12. 12. METHODOLOGY - Objective A WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)
  13. 13. METHODOLOGY - Objective A WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)
  14. 14. METHODOLOGY - Objective A <ul><li>“ Global climate models” (GCMs) based on atmospheric science, chemistry, physics and biology </li></ul><ul><li>Runs from the past (to calibrate) and into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Uses different gas emissions scenarios </li></ul>Climate (Future)
  15. 15. METHODOLOGY - Objective A Climate (Future)
  16. 16. METHODOLOGY - Objective A Variables
  17. 17. METHODOLOGY - Objective A <ul><li>Current Climate </li></ul><ul><li>19 bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaling: Spline interpolation (same as used in WorldClim) </li></ul><ul><li>Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables </li></ul><ul><li>Future Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Current Climate + Change = Future Climate </li></ul>
  18. 18. RESULTS - Objective A A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of GMCR coffee sourcing areas
  19. 19. RESULTS - Objective A
  20. 20. RESULTS - Objective A
  21. 21. RESULTS - Objective A Average climate change in Nicaragua - 120 mm - 90 mm Change in precipitation + 2,4 °C + 1,1 °C Average temperature change 2050 2020
  22. 22. RESULTS - Objective A Suitability change by 2050
  23. 23. RESULTS - Objective A Suitability versus altitude
  24. 24. METHODOLOGY - Objective B A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of scoffee sourcing areas B: Evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity
  25. 25. METHODOLOGY - Objective B Cropster.org
  26. 26. METHODOLOGY - Objective B Cropster.org
  27. 27. RESULTS - Objective B Crop prediction models
  28. 28. METHODOLOGY - Objective C A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas B: Evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity C: Identify alternative crops suitable under predicted climate change scenarios for key regions
  29. 29. METHODOLOGY- Objective C 30 most important crop Área sembrada (Ha) 219584 Mangifera indica L. Mango 15 9175222 Zea mays L. s. mays Maíz 14 16756 Lactuca sativa var. capitata L. Lechuga 13 --- Andropogon gayanus Kunth Gamba 12 2119650 Phaseolus vulgaris L. Frijol 11 23001 Brassica oleraceae var. Botrytis Coliflor 10 59574 Allium cepa L. v cepa Cebollas 9 1287388 Saccharum officinarum L. Caña de Azúcar 8 82592 Theobroma cacao L. Cacao 7 --- Brachiaria mutica Stapf. Brachiaria 6 207175 Musa acuminata Colla. Banano 5 321764 Oriza sativa L. s. japonica Arroz 4 113414 Gossypium hirsutum L. Algodón 3 19065 Agave sisalana americana Agaves Otras 2 189804 Elaeis guineensis Jacq. Palma 1 Nombre científico Cultivo N Área sembrada (Ha) Nombre Científico Cultivos N 83054 Arachis hypogaea L. Maní 16 422754 citrus Sinensis (L.) Osbeck Naranjas 17 199595 Cocos nucifera L. Coco 18 90850 Solanum tuberosum L. Batata 19 26528 Carica papaya L. Papaya 20 66614 Ananas comosus Piña 21 57872 Musa balbisiana Colla Platano 22 --- Brassica oleraceae L.v capi. Repollo 23 104700 Sesamum indicum L. Sesamo 24 78726 Glycine max Soja 25 2026824 Sorghum bicolor L. Moench Sorgo 26 24713 Nicotiana tabacum L. Tabaco 27 130812 Lycopersicon esculentum M. Tomates 28 38322 Manihot sculenta Crantz. Yuca 29 17073 Daucus carota L. Zanahoria 30
  30. 30. RESULTS - Objective C Suitability change in crops
  31. 31. RESULTS - Objective C Number of crops that loose out
  32. 32. RESULTS - Objective C Number of crops that win
  33. 33. RESULTS - Objective C Combination of crops and coffee
  34. 34. METHODOLOGY - Objetive D A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas B: Evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity C: Identify alternative crops suitable under predicted climate change scenarios for key regions D: Evaluate the implications of changes in coffee quality and quantity case studies on social parameters (income, poverty and equity)
  35. 35. METHODOLOGY - Objetive D
  36. 36. METHODOLOGY - Objetive D
  37. 37. METHODOLOGY - Objective E A: Predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas E: Accompany farmer organizations and engage supply chain actors to design adequate scenarios B: Evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity C: Identify alternative crops suitable under predicted climate change scenarios for key regions D: Evaluate the implications of changes in coffee quality and quantity in case studies on social parameters (income, poverty and equity)
  38. 38. Los colores muestran: Precipitación promedio anual Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Precipitación promedio anual: 1.900mm
  39. 39. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 Cruz Alejandro Gomez La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 Matagalpa, Nicaragua Factores ambientales: Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: -37%
  40. 40. Los colores muestran: Cambio de la Adaptabilidad (%) para el año 2050 <ul><li>Cruz Alejandro Gomez </li></ul><ul><li>La Maravilla | ID: NIC_024 </li></ul><ul><li>Matagalpa, Nicaragua </li></ul><ul><li>Factores ambientales: </li></ul><ul><li>Cambio Adaptabilidad año 2050: </li></ul><ul><li>-37% </li></ul><ul><li>Cultivos alternativos (Adaptabilidad) : </li></ul><ul><li>Cacao 70% </li></ul><ul><li>Frijol 56% </li></ul><ul><li>Papa 34% </li></ul>
  41. 41. Coffee Under Pressure CUP A: To predict the future suitability and distribution of coffee sourcing areas - 2009 -2011 E: To accompany farmer organizations and engage supply chain actors to design adequate scenarios - 2012 - 2014 B: To evaluate potential impacts of cc on coffee quality and quantity - 2010 - 2011 C: To identify alternative crops suitable under predicted climate change scenarios for key regions - 2010 - 2012 D: To evaluate the implications of changes in coffee quality and quantity in studies on social parameters (income, poverty and equity) - 2010 - 2013
  42. 42. ¡Muchas gracias! Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address]

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