Exploiting the dynamics of weak signals (Voigt)


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  • “In this [triangle] figure the triangular configuration is not only recognized as being present in the image, but that triangle is filled-in perceptually, producing visual edges in places where no edges are present in the input… [leading to] even more sophisticated illusions …in which the illusory percept takes the form of a three-dimensional volume.”[Thedalmation dog] picture is familiar in vision circles, for it reveals the principle of emergence in a most compelling form. For those who have never seen this picture before, it appears initially as a random pattern of irregular shapes. A remarkable transformation is observed in this percept as soon as one recognizes the subject of the picture as a dalmation dog in patchy sunlight in the shade of overhanging trees. What is remarkable about this percept is that the dog is perceived so vividly despite the fact that much of its perimeter is missing. Furthermore, visual edges which form a part of the perimeter of the dog are locally indistinguishable from other less significant edges. Therefore any local portion of this image does not contain the information necessary to distinguish significant from insignificant edges.” http://sharp.bu.edu/~slehar/webstuff/bubw3/bubw3.html
  • Exploiting the dynamics of weak signals (Voigt)

    1. 1. Exploiting the dynamics ofweak signalsA Difference That Makes a DifferenceMilton Keynes, Thurs 8 Sept 2011, 14:00-17:30C. Voigt (ZSI, Vienna),A. Naeve (KTH, Stockholm)P. Lefrere (KMI, Milton Keynes)
    2. 2. Centre for Social Innovation Socio-technical systems frame Forecast, Design, Impact and Dissemination – Participative – Mixed methods – Often pattern based Keeping people at the centre of innovation Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 2
    3. 3. Roadmapping TEL-Map - Roadmapping the future of technology enhanced learning Roadmapping information: trends, delphi-evaluations, semantics, scenarios, disagreements and weak signals Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 3
    4. 4. What is a weak signal? Fashionable, fuzzy term Working definition of Weak Signals (WS) – indicators of change not appreciated – tendency to be surprising – initially lacking clear relations to other signals Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 4
    5. 5. Weak signals and observers  we have weak signals  we have human sense making  as soon as we focus on one thing, the other thing disappearshttp://www.lassp.cornell.edu/ardlouis/dissipative/cat.gif Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) Christian 5
    6. 6. Weak signals or illusory percept ? Hamlet: Do you see yonder cloud that’s almost in shape of a camel? Polonius: By the Mass, and ‘tis like a camel indeed. Hamlet: Methinks it is like a weasel. Polonius: It is backed like a weasel. Hamlet: Or like a whale? Polonius: Very like a whale.Hamlet (Act II, Scene II) Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 6
    7. 7. Information scope Text corpora – 3 conferences: EC-TEL, ICALT and ICWL – 1601 abstracts from 2006 – 2009 – 363 abstracts in 2010 Rising and falling terms: term frequency raises more than 180% and appeared at least eight times in the previous four years Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 7
    8. 8. Information lenses Interviewees’ Backgrounds: Role in Organisation (n=21) Self-rated expertise (n=21) Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 8
    9. 9. Each of you may be able to spot orsuggest a weak signal for TEL …. Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 9
    10. 10. Serious GamesFindings:corpus QTIexploitationQTI: Question and TestInteroperabilityspecification defines astandard format for therepresentation ofassessment content andresults, supporting theexchange of this materialbetween authoring anddelivery systems Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 10
    11. 11. Findings: context interviews Technology uptake impeded by lack of policies and sufficiently mature technologies Recording, labeling and sharing of learner data (feeding learner models) is on the rise. Personalised learning includes learners’ goals, trajectories and backgrounds. Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 11
    12. 12. Conclusions Main benefit of WS analysis comes out of using WS for scenario planning, disagreement mgmt., etc. WS can be ‚individual‘ or ‚historical‘ WS analysis needs to be – Multimethod – Multidiciplinary – Multisourced Like any other information, WS remain determined by context parameters (sources, scope, lenses …community) Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 12
    13. 13. Contact Details Christian Ambjörn Paul voigt@zsi.at amb@csc.kth.se lefrere@mac.comhttps://www.zsi.at/user http://kmr.nada.kth.se/ http://kmi.open.ac.uk/p s/156 wiki/Amb/HomePage eople/member/paul- lefrere Christian Voigt (Centre for Social Innovation) 13