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Augmented Reality: Crossing the Chasm of the Hype Cycle (AWE 2015)


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A presentation by Chris Nunes at Augmented World Expo 2015 on June 8 2015 in Santa Clara, CA. "Crossing the Chasm of the AR Hype Cycle" provides a brief analysis of the state-of-business of the Augmented Reality sector, as well as the industry initiatives of the IEEE's new taskforce "Augmented Reality Directions & Standards".

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Augmented Reality: Crossing the Chasm of the Hype Cycle (AWE 2015)

  1. 1. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR CROSSING THE CHASM of the AR HYPE CYCLE Are we getting where we’re going?
  2. 2. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR WHO? Entertainment Attorney & Tech Entrepreneur (AR content + AR delivery) HOLLYWOOD STARPOP MOBILE APP IEEE, AR DIRECTIONS & STANDARDS AR LOS ANGELES MEETUP GROUP THE HEAVY PROJECTS Founder Chair Past Organizer BizDev @adocracy
  3. 3. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR AUDIENCE INPUT @adocracy What words do you use to pitch or describe AR projects to clients or friends/family? Tweet @adocracy with #ARWords + your words or phrases
  4. 4. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR @adocracy GARTNER’S HYPE CYCLE
  5. 5. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR AR HYPE CYCLE 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2014 2013 Virtual Reality @adocracy 2015 ? 2nd generation products, some services < 5% of audience has adopted Methodologies & Best Practices Developing High Growth Adoption; 20-30% market penetration 3rd generation products, out-of- the-box, product suites
  7. 7. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR Geoffrey Moore @adocracy
  8. 8. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR 90% OF HYPE CYCLE IS BEFORE THE CHASM 2.5% Techies (Innovators) 13.5% Visionaries (Early Adopters) 34% Pragmatists (Early Majority) 2014 2015 is somewhere here @adocracy
  9. 9. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR HOW GEOFF MOORE PERCEIVES AR o Pre-Chasm, applied by visionaries o Requires (more?) complete ecosystem – hardware, software, content, & services o Needs to achieve a handful of flagship account wins ! Spectacular one-off outcomes that the press will write about o “AR needs a beachhead segment among pragmatists in pain, saddled with a mission- critical business process that is breaking down under the pressure of new forces” ! Where AR is the only logical solution, even on paper @adocracy
  10. 10. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR WHY WE MIGHT BE READY TO CROSS THE CHASM… 201 4 o VR bypassed 60% of the Hype Cycle entirely when the Oculus emerged in 2012 o Emergence of game changing platforms can dramatically shift the Hype Cycle ! Magic Leap? ! HoloLens? o Vuforia’s pricing change reflective of a maturing customer base o Apple’s acquisition of Metaio o Emergence of Best Practices & Methodologies ! IEEE: ARDS & Tomorrow’s Roadmap ! AR Community @adocracy
  11. 11. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR TECH COMPANY ANECDOTE… o Came to us with an AR project request – they wanted Innovation o CMO “knew” of AR as an emerging standard, but didn’t really “know it” o Not convinced until he heard that every major advertiser has conducted some kind of AR campaign ! Wants to be able to put an AR project in his CV ! Advertiser list provided trusted verification o Provided a solution he had been unable to achieve to date @adocracy
  12. 12. #AWE2015 #IEEEAR IEEE-ARDS INITIATIVES 1.  Case Studies, Use Cases, ROI Reports 2.  Terminology -  Words matter -  Standardized usage leads to better public understanding -  Bridge [Technical] with [Marketing] Language 3.  Guidelines & Best Practices -  UX -  Development Methodologies @adocracy
  13. 13. CHRIS NUNES @adocracy in/chrisnunes