The perils of measurement


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The perils of measurement

  1. 1. Dr Chris
  2. 2. The Big Problem of Measurement“Hitting the TargetMissing the Point”
  3. 3. Let me tell you a story…If we did “Will the automobile impact on society? Ifthings then so, how?”the way wedo things now
  4. 4. Charles Handy on Change.. Performance B E A C D Time12/03/2012 4
  5. 5. Problem Types Do we know whereScaling practice YES We are going? Best practice TASK: TASK: Process Operational Development Management NO YES Do we know TASK: TASK: How to get Concept Direction There? Creation SettingNext practice Emerging practice NO After Eddie Obeng 12/03/2012 5
  6. 6. The Public Sector doesn’t innovate because....  It can’t go out of business  Exceptionalism  It’s a monopoly or pseudo-competition  Lack of competition  Lack of skills..  Regulation  Targets  Politics  Leadership  Culture  Trade Unions.......YAWN12/03/2012 6
  7. 7. Great Ormond Street12/03/2012 7
  8. 8. Diffusion of Innovations12/03/2012 8
  9. 9. Why do some Innovations take longer to diffuse?  Homophily  Heterophily12/03/2012 9
  10. 10. High Whose problem? Political System ThinkComplexity Tank Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty 12/03/2012 10
  11. 11. High What value? Political System ThinkComplexity Tank Track record Ideas Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Knowledge Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty 12/03/2012 11
  12. 12. High During Step Change? Political System Consultancy ThinkComplexity squeezed as limited Tank track record Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty 12/03/2012 12
  13. 13. Wisdom of the Crowds “In the Future blind People will Be able to drive cars”12/03/2012 13
  14. 14. Results  Probability 0.9 with some 0.2  Today with Resources: 1-3 years  In practice: 3-10 years  In reality: 10-100 years12/03/2012 14
  15. 15. How Far? The Three Horizons Source: IFFMarch 12 Chris Yapp 15
  16. 16. Measure What? Input Process Output Outcome3/12/2012 16
  17. 17. Measure How?  Measurement X is the output of a measurement process. Change the process and you change X  Examples: Unemployment, Truancy, Speed of Light  How consistent is the process?  Bias, self-selection?  Skills?  Channel?  Human Factors  Operational Definitions3/12/2012 17
  18. 18. Starting the Journey  Inputs  Process  People  Time  Skills  Errors  Money  Variation  Information  Resources Efficiency and Quality Effectiveness and Consistency3/12/2012 18
  19. 19. W Edwards Deming  It is important that an aim never be defined in terms of activity or methods. It must always relate directly to how life is better for everyone... The aim of the system must be clear to everyone in the system. The aim must include plans for the future. The aim is a value judgment.”3/12/2012 19
  20. 20. Jake’s story Jake is 28. he didn’t do well at school. His parents split when he was 15. he dropped out of school. Within 2 years he was homeless. He took to drink and drugs. He stole to fund the habit and ended up in prison. Inside he was found to be dyslexic. His support stopped when he was released. He drifted, with spells of work and homelessness. Last year he met his first real girlfriend. She is now pregnant. They are very happy and Jake wishes to build the home and family he never had. He wants to get skills for a good job.3/12/2012 20
  21. 21. Helping Jake  Outputs  Outcomes Housing Skills  Break generational cycle Family  Stable Family Work  Ability to earn and work Dependency  Jake mentoring others ….3/12/2012 21
  22. 22. Open Innovation  Innovating with lead users  Co-design  Co-creation  Co-deliver …12/03/2012 22
  23. 23. Unintended Consequences Counter-intuitive result Interaction between different parts of system Targets distorting the system performance Performance measures reducing performance Injecting resources without involvement of key people Source: DEMOS; “System Failure”
  24. 24. Targets and Timescales  All children should  80% of children should achieve their full meet the target by 2015 potential in education3/12/2012 24
  25. 25. Two useful ways of thinking..  Triple-loop learning  Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety3/12/2012 25
  26. 26. Triple-Loop Learning Set Change Reframe Maximise yield At lowest price And reduce carbon3/12/2012 26
  27. 27. The Challenge Yield Carbon Temperature Temperature Cost of Energy Temperature3/12/2012 27
  28. 28. Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety The Economy If a “system” is to be Increase number of people stable, it must have at least working as many control levers as Reduce the Debt degrees of freedom Grow the economy Green the economy3/12/2012 28
  29. 29. Organisational culture Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership Collaboration 12/03/2012 29
  30. 30. Organisational Roles in Innovation  Sponsor  Product Champion  Organisational Champion12/03/2012 30
  31. 31. Beware  Whose definitions?  Who is measuring? “What get’s  Input, Process,Output or measured gets Outcome  Shared Targets done?”  Unintended consequences3/12/2012 31
  32. 32. Leadership or Management? "The most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable (Lloyd S. Nelson, director of statistical methods for the Nashua corporation), but successful management must nevertheless take account of them."3/12/2012 32