Thesis Defense Presentation

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Thesis Defense Presentation

  1. 1. 11 November 2009 Chris Hippner
  2. 2. <ul><li>Quantitative metrics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Spending </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Hypothesis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$100 billion United States Dollars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>500,000 persons </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>NOT YET POSSIBLE </li></ul><ul><li>Method does not exist for international comparisons </li></ul><ul><li>Assumes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Function, roles, & missions are different </li></ul></ul><ul><li>WRONG FEATURES </li></ul><ul><li>Common features: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collection/analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Covert action </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Counterintelligence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National wealth v. security concerns? </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>Cold War Paradigm </li></ul><ul><li>Civil-Military Relations </li></ul><ul><li>Non-Western </li></ul><ul><li>Inconsistent/qualitative variables </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Annual reports/disclosers </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Pro: Quantitative </li></ul><ul><li>Con: Irregular reporting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All intel. Components? </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Brassey’s Intelligence Yearbook </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Case study format </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different attributes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Intelligence Resource Program </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collected data </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Descriptive research </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence spending </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence personnel </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Gross Domestic Product </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Population </li></ul><ul><ul><li>195 nation-states </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Standardizing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Spending units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US Dollar </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2008 = baseline year </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personnel definitions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Full time equivalents </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No contractors </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>DATA RETRIEVAL </li></ul><ul><li>Internet Sources </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional Sources </li></ul><ul><li>Considerations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Documents in foreign languages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Webpage credibility </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ESTIMATION PROCESS </li></ul><ul><li>Spending </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Create ratio </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Average ratios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Apply </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Personnel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish similarity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Set ranges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Apply </li></ul></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Finding </li></ul><ul><li>Total world intel. spending = $ 106,961,604,308.01 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>US spends most = 65% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US proportion of world GDP = 23.5% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US spending is disproportion </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>Finding </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries spend 93% of total </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Their GDP = 69% world GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><li>175 countries spend remaining $7.8 billion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Their GDP = 31% world GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Top 10% average point-to-point variation </li></ul></ul>Top 10% vs. Bottom 90%
  11. 11. Exponential Trend R 2 Value = 0.940 Power Trend R 2 Value = 0.835 Results (cont’d)
  12. 12. Affect of US on Estimating Population (US Included) Population (US Excluded) Average Spending $548,521,047.73 $164,750,537.67 Standard Deviation $5,389,872,754.45 $576,959,565.88 Ratios for Estimating 2/947 1/442 Percent Difference of Estimates 5.22%
  13. 13. <ul><li>Finding </li></ul><ul><li>Total world intelligence employment = </li></ul><ul><ul><li> 1,130,104 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Russia spends = $18,902.70 per person </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US spends = $520,833 per person </li></ul></ul>Total: 1,130,104 World 814,104 72%
  14. 14. = Top Intelligence Employers
  15. 15. <ul><li>Top 20 employers = </li></ul><ul><li>61% of total </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom 175 employer = 39% of total </li></ul><ul><li>Interesting… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Top intel. spenders ≠ top intel. employers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only 6 countries are both </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. = Top Intelligence Spender and Employer
  17. 17. <ul><li>Found 246 different intel. agencies </li></ul><ul><li>Average intel. agency per country = 1.28 </li></ul><ul><li>Financial intel. units generally excluded </li></ul>
  18. 18. <ul><li>CRITIQUE </li></ul><ul><li>Search methods </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative estimations methods </li></ul><ul><li>Intel. spending & Employment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Assumed linear Relationship </li></ul></ul><ul><li>FUTURE RESEARCH </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous Regular reporting </li></ul><ul><li>Intel. spending & employment relationship </li></ul><ul><li>Employment components </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysts, Linguists, support staff </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Contact: Chris Hippner

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