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2012 Mobile Industry Predictions by Chetan Sharma Consulting

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2012 Mobile Industry
                           Predictions Survey




Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits.


        http://www.chetansharma.com   1      © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 1/2012
2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy,
healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions
Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends.
2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced
devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning
hours of 2011, we crossed the 6 billion subscriptions milestone. While the first billion took 19
years, this last billion only took 15 months.
Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the
devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved
brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile
data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for
broadband deployment.
Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We
put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean
some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of
what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and
startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012
might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the
collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution.


                  http://www.chetansharma.com   2   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey

 Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are:

 •     Tor Bjorn Minde, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson
 •     Sunder Somasundaram, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T
 •     C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility
 •     Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye
 •     Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks
 •     John Foster, President, ZED USA
 •     Angel Luis Saez, Sr. Director, Orange Spain
 •     Dilip Mistry, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia
 •     Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint
 •     Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar
 •     Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International
 •     Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
 •     X J Wang, VP – GM China, Vesta Corp
 •     Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom
 •     Hemant Chandak, Sr. Analyst, Cisco Systems

 Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we
 are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012.

 Be well, do good work, and stay in touch.

 Thanks and with warm wishes,

 Your feedback is always welcome.

 Thanks
 Chetan




                              http://www.chetansharma.com                3        © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
Participant Composition




         http://www.chetansharma.com   4   © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
Biggest Mobile Story of 2011



                        What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011?

        The rise and domination of Android

                Passing away of Steve Jobs

                                    Others

                Introduction of Kindle Fire

                                 IP battles

               Mobile M&As and alliances

                        Regulatory Tussles

              Privacy and Security debates

                                              0%   5%       10%   15%      20%      25%       30%      35%      40%




            http://www.chetansharma.com                 5     © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
Biggest stories of 2012


                           What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012?
     Continued growth of mobile data around the world

                 Amazon's entry into the mobile arena

                          Microsoft/Nokia resurgence

                 4G deployment and marketing battles

                                  Google and Android

                                  Security and Privacy

                             Apple Tablets and iPhone

                            Facebook Mobile Platform

                                                Others

                          Operator and/or OEM M&A

                                Policy and Regulation

                     Network overloading and collapse

                                                         0%       5%   10%     15%      20%     25%      30%      35%     40%      45%




                  http://www.chetansharma.com                 6        © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
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2012 mobile industry_predictions_survey

  • 1. 2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 1 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is prohibited. 1/2012
  • 2. 2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting, we wish you and yours a very happy, healthy, and prosperous 2012. My thanks to all who participated in our 2012 Mobile Predictions Annual Survey. It gives our community an insider’s view of trends. 2011 was a terrific year for the mobile industry. With all its ups and down, consumers embraced devices, applications, services, and technology with more gusto than ever before. In the waning hours of 2011, we crossed the 6 billion subscriptions milestone. While the first billion took 19 years, this last billion only took 15 months. Smartphones are selling like hot cakes. We estimate that by the end of Q4 2011, over 60% of the devices sold in the US were smartphones and over 30% of the global sales were for the evolved brethren of the primordial featurephones. Sparked by insatiable consumer demand for mobile data, LTE and HSPA+ networks are sprouting all over the planet with US leading the charge for broadband deployment. Our annual survey is a way for us to engage our community on the trends for the next year. We put some of the pressing questions to our colleagues and industry leaders. We are able to glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments, some tangible shifts, and get a sense of what’s to come. Executives, developers, and insiders (n=150) from leading mobile companies and startups from across the value chain and around the world participated to help see what 2012 might bring to keep us on our toes. What makes this survey unique is that it draws upon the collective wisdom of folks who are at the center of the mobile evolution. http://www.chetansharma.com 2 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 3. 2012 Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Fifteen names were randomly drawn for the limited edition of the Mobile Future Forward 2011 book. The winners are: • Tor Bjorn Minde, Head of Ericsson Labs, Ericsson • Sunder Somasundaram, Industry Solutions Practice Director, AT&T • C. Enrique Ortiz, Mobile Technologist, About Mobility • Russell Buckley, CMO, Eagle Eye • Marianne Marck, VP – Engineering, Starbucks • John Foster, President, ZED USA • Angel Luis Saez, Sr. Director, Orange Spain • Dilip Mistry, Senior Director, Microsoft Asia • Phyllis Reuther, Advanced Analytics Lab, Sprint • Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile, Isobar • Elizabeth Day, Director of Finance, Trilogy International • Alan Cole, Research Staff Member, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center • X J Wang, VP – GM China, Vesta Corp • Michelle Lee, Director, SK Telecom • Hemant Chandak, Sr. Analyst, Cisco Systems Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on you again next year. It has been a terrific year for us at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking forward to an engaging and productive 2012. Be well, do good work, and stay in touch. Thanks and with warm wishes, Your feedback is always welcome. Thanks Chetan http://www.chetansharma.com 3 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 4. Participant Composition http://www.chetansharma.com 4 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 5. Biggest Mobile Story of 2011 What was most newsworthy in Mobile 2011? The rise and domination of Android Passing away of Steve Jobs Others Introduction of Kindle Fire IP battles Mobile M&As and alliances Regulatory Tussles Privacy and Security debates 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% http://www.chetansharma.com 5 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 6. Biggest stories of 2012 What will be the biggest mobile stories of 2012? Continued growth of mobile data around the world Amazon's entry into the mobile arena Microsoft/Nokia resurgence 4G deployment and marketing battles Google and Android Security and Privacy Apple Tablets and iPhone Facebook Mobile Platform Others Operator and/or OEM M&A Policy and Regulation Network overloading and collapse 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% http://www.chetansharma.com 6 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 7. Most Open Mobile Player Who will be the most open player in the mobile ecosystem in 2012? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nokia Carriers Other OEMs Apple Amazon Facebook Microsoft Google 2009 2010 2011 2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 7 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 8. Apps and 4G What applications will define 4G? Video Cloud Computing Access (just more bandwidth) Games Music Health and Wellness Others Telematics Advertising 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% http://www.chetansharma.com 8 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 9. Apps/Services in 2012 What will be the breakthrough category in mobile in 2012? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 9 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 10. Apps in 2012 What will be the most popular consumer applications in 2012? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Location Mobile NFC based Mobile Messaging Mobile Mobile Mobile Deals and Based Health services Music Advertising Augmented Payments Coupons Services Monitoring Reality and Commerce Developing Developed http://www.chetansharma.com 10 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 11. Tablets: 2012-13 Which will be the most dominant (unit sales) tablet platform in 2 years? Others Windows 3% 8% iOS 45% Android 44% http://www.chetansharma.com 11 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 12. M&As in 2012 Who will make the biggest mobile acquistion in 2012? Microsoft Google Operators Amazon Facebook Apple Oracle Infrastructure Providers Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% http://www.chetansharma.com 12 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 13. Apps vs. Web How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web" debate shape up in 2012? 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Apps will continue to Mobile Web will start to Both will live in peace Both are one and the dominate become more relevant and harmony same 2011 2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 13 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 14. Mobile Payment/Commerce in 2012 Who will define the mobile payment/commerce space? 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2011 2012 http://www.chetansharma.com 14 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 15. Solutions for mobile data growth Which solutions will gain the most traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption? 4G Tiered pricing Mobile offload Optimization Policy management Backhaul upgrades Spectrum Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% http://www.chetansharma.com 15 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 16. Mobile Data Revenues in 2012 Which category will generate the most mobile data revenue in 2012? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North America Western India/China Japan/Korea Rest of Asia Africa South America Europe Messaging Access Apps Advertising http://www.chetansharma.com 16 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 17. Mobile Cloud Computing in 2012 What will help mobile cloud computing gain traction in 2012? 5% 9% 27% Games Processing 19% Apps Media Storage Enterprise 20% 20% http://www.chetansharma.com 17 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 18. Mobile disruption in 2012 Which enterprise segment will mobile impact the most? Retail Health Field Force Sales Privacy Education Others Energy 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% http://www.chetansharma.com 18 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 19. Mobile App Revenue Models in 2012 What will be the dominant revenue model for apps in 2012? Combination In-app Advertising Paid Subscriptions Virtual Goods Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% http://www.chetansharma.com 19 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 20. Mobile Payments in 2012 What mode of mobile payments will get traction in NA and WE in 2012? Proximity based Selling of physical goods on mobile Selling of non-digital goods on mobile P2P Remittance No meaningful traction 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% http://www.chetansharma.com 20 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 21. Mobile Devices in 2012 What will be the most successful non-mobile-phone category in 2012? Tablet eReader M2M Camera Telematics Others 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% http://www.chetansharma.com 21 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 22. What does the future hold? Which of the following are likely to happen in the near future? Tablets become the leading Enterprise IT device Asian operator acquires a major European operator Major retailers start to shut down due to competition from e/m-tailers Mobile voting becomes available in major countries Humans discover water on another planet Another significant mobile OS emerges 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% http://www.chetansharma.com 22 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 23. Regulatory To-Do List in 2012 Which areas will feel the most impact of Regulators in 2012? Net Neutrality Competitiveness Exclusivity Pricing Network management Subsidy None of the above 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% http://www.chetansharma.com 23 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 24. Mobile Person of the Year Who was the mobile person of the year? Steve Jobs Jeff Bezos Angry Birds Andy Rubin Mark Zuckerberg Tim Cook Others Paul Jacobs Sanjiv Ahuja Dan Hesse Glenn Lurie 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% http://www.chetansharma.com 24 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012
  • 25. Save The Date Sept, 2012 Seattle Ever wondered what the future of mobile looks like? Contact info@mobilefutureforward.com for sponsorship and speaking opportunities
  • 26. We look forward to hearing from you Chetan Sharma Mobile Future Forward chetan@chetansharma.com info@mobilefutureforward.com TW: @chetansharma TW: @mfutureforward http://www.chetansharma.com http://www.mobilefutureforward.com Research. Technology. Strategy. Intellectual Property. Thought Leadership Summits. http://www.chetansharma.com 26 © Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. Copying w/o permission is strictly prohibited. 1/2012