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Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Nothing But Net
2014 Global Internet Investment Guide
US In...
2
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
January 9, 2014
Dear Inv...
3
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Table of Contents
Global...
4
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
QuinStreet, Inc............
5
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Paradigm shift into mess...
6
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Global Comp Sheet
Figure...
7
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 2: Global Interne...
8
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Global Internet Top Pick...
9
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
activations and introduc...
10
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Korea
Naver: Overweight...
11
Global Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
confirmed operating lev...
12
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
U.S. Internet Th...
13
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
capitalize on op...
14
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 5: Global...
15
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 7: U.S. G...
16
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
2014 will be ano...
17
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
We believe Pando...
18
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 9: Gap Be...
19
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
We note that Pan...
20
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Native Ads to Dr...
21
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Overall, we beli...
22
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Cross-Device Adv...
23
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Advertising cont...
24
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
ECDC uses last p...
25
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Traditional Medi...
26
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 13: YouTu...
27
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
In November, Twi...
28
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Last Mile Drives...
29
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 15: Large...
30
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Table 1: Industr...
31
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 16: AMZN/...
32
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Figure 17: Perce...
33
North America Equity Research
09 January 2014
Doug Anmuth
(1-212) 622-6571
douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
Offline Retailer...
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
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J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet
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J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet

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J.P. Morgan(2014) 發布的「Nothing but Net」研究報告,有比較難找到的日本韓國電商資料,和各大國際電商公司的詳盡資料,雖然是2014年但值得一看!!

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J.P. Morgan 研究報告-Nothing but net 2014 global internet

  1. 1. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Nothing But Net 2014 Global Internet Investment Guide US Internet Doug Anmuth AC (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Bloomberg JPMA ANMUTH <GO> J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Kaizad Gotla, CFA AC (1-212) 622-6436 kaizad.gotla@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bo Nam (1-212) 622-5032 bo.nam@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Diana R Kluger, CFA (1-212) 622-4539 diana.r.kluger@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC China Internet Alex Yao AC (852) 2800 8535 alex.c.yao@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Korea Internet and Telco Stanley Yang AC (82-2) 758-5712 stanley.yang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch Japan Games, Internet, Leisure Haruka Mori AC (81-3) 6736-8632 haruka.mori@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Europe Media & Internet Nicolas J Dubourg AC (44-20) 7134-5226 nicolas.j.dubourg@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc CEEMEA Media & Telecoms Alexei Gogolev AC (7-495) 967-1029 alexei.gogolev@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC Latin American Telecommunications / Media / Technology Andre Baggio, CFA AC * (55-11) 4950-3427 andre.baggio@jpmorgan.com Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. * Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/FINRA rules. See page 321 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
  2. 2. 2 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com January 9, 2014 Dear Investors and Internet Followers, 2013 was a strong year for equity markets overall, and an even better year for Internet stocks. U.S. Internet stocks in our coverage universe appreciated by a market cap-weighted average of 78% vs. the S&P 500 up 30%, while global Internet names covered by J.P. Morgan increased 84% during the year. Broad-based strength was evident across online subscription, advertising, and commerce models given the backdrop of powerful secular trends and an improving macro environment. We believe those underlying dynamics should continue in 2014, and mobile will become an even bigger driver of Internet models. As we think back through some of the major shifts in the consumer Internet era, including the move from dial-up to broadband and changes in how people consume content, none is more significant than the adoption of mobile devices. comScore data suggests that U.S. mobile usage time initially surpassed that of the desktop in mid-2013, and that directional trend should continue globally going forward. We think 2014 is a year in which the gap tightens between mobile usage and mobile conversions and revenue, turning mobile into a greater tailwind across our global Internet coverage universe. The Internet sector is extremely dynamic and we believe innovation is stronger than ever driven by the combined viral effects of social and mobile, along with the broad access to computing infrastructure in the cloud as exemplified by Amazon’s AWS. Leading Internet platforms such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, Tencent, and Apple continue to thrive, but we are also seeing powerful ecosystems created by LinkedIn and Twitter, along with other social, commerce, and communications platforms. We are focused on a number of key trends in the U.S. in 2014 including: 1) Mobile conversions and revenue tightening the gap with mobile usage; 2) Native and News Feed advertising becoming the dominant format for mobile ad monetization; 3) Cross-device tracking and attribution becoming critical for marketers and publishers alike; 4) Traditional media measurement tools to help accelerate the shift of traditional media dollars online; 5) Advances in Last Mile eCommerce to drive online penetration in key retail categories; 6) Cloud-based services gaining significant scale; and 7) Continued blurring of the lines among online travel participants. On a global basis, many of the key themes outlined by our Internet team in other geographies relate to mobile and how it is driving gaming, commerce, and advertising. From an investment perspective, we recognize that most of our companies trade at materially higher levels than they did a year ago, and we remain selective based on asset quality, growth, valuation, and other factors. But we also believe it is still early in the mobile Internet—considerable share gain opportunities remain across our global coverage universe and innovation will continue to drive disruptive technologies. We hope our global outlook report is helpful in your investment process in 2014 and we look forward to working with you in the year ahead. Sincerely, Doug Anmuth (U.S.) Alex Yao (China) Stanley Yang (Korea) Haruka Mori (Japan) Nicolas Dubourg (Europe) Alexei Gogolev (Russia) Andre Baggio (Latin America)
  3. 3. 3 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Table of Contents Global Comp Sheet............................................................................ 6 Global Internet Top Picks................................................................... 8 U.S. Sector Outlook ....................................................................... 12 U.S. Internet Themes for 2014......................................................... 12 Revenue and Conversions to Tighten the Gap with Strong Mobile Usage .............................................................................................. 12 Native Ads to Drive Mobile Ad Monetization..................................... 20 Cross-Device Advertising and Attribution Becoming Critical............. 22 Traditional Media Measurement Tools to Drive Traditional Media Dollars Online .................................................................................. 25 Last Mile Drives Further Online/Offline Retail Convergence............. 28 Cloud-Based Services Gaining Scale............................................... 34 Blurring of the Lines in Online Travel ............................................... 37 U.S. Company Outlooks ................................................................ 39 Google............................................................................................. 39 Amazon.com.................................................................................... 44 Facebook......................................................................................... 49 eBay, Inc.......................................................................................... 54 Priceline.com ................................................................................... 59 Yahoo Inc......................................................................................... 63 Twitter, Inc. ...................................................................................... 65 LinkedIn Corp................................................................................... 70 Netflix Inc......................................................................................... 75 TripAdvisor, Inc................................................................................ 80 Expedia, Inc..................................................................................... 85 Groupon........................................................................................... 90 Pandora Media Inc........................................................................... 95 Yelp Inc.......................................................................................... 101 HomeAway Inc............................................................................... 105 Zynga Inc....................................................................................... 110 Criteo............................................................................................. 114 OpenTable Inc ............................................................................... 118 Bankrate Inc................................................................................... 122 Trulia Inc........................................................................................ 126 Chegg, Inc. .................................................................................... 130
  4. 4. 4 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com QuinStreet, Inc............................................................................... 135 ReachLocal.................................................................................... 139 CafePress, Inc. .............................................................................. 143 LatAm Company Outlooks .......................................................... 147 MercadoLibre, Inc. ......................................................................... 147 China Sector Outlook .................................................................. 150 Early movers to approach return stage........................................... 151 Mobile game monetization to drive mobile traffic platforms’ earnings growth in 2014 ............................................................................... 154 Large mobile platforms attempting to shape new eco-system and user behavior......................................................................................... 158 Uncertainty in 2014 video outlook .................................................. 160 Continued growth of online-to-offline business; room for cooperation with big mobile platforms................................................................ 163 Online travel remains highly competitive ........................................ 165 China Company Outlooks ........................................................... 167 Tencent.......................................................................................... 167 Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd....................................................... 171 YY Inc ............................................................................................ 175 Baidu.com...................................................................................... 179 Sina Corp....................................................................................... 183 SouFun Holdings Ltd...................................................................... 187 Phoenix New Media Ltd ................................................................. 191 Vipshop.......................................................................................... 195 Forgame Holdings Ltd.................................................................... 199 Sohu.Com...................................................................................... 203 NetEase......................................................................................... 207 Youku Tudou Inc............................................................................ 211 Ctrip.com International, Ltd ............................................................ 215 Sungy Mobile Limited..................................................................... 219 Dangdang ...................................................................................... 223 Korea Sector Outlook .................................................................. 227 The paradigm shift from PC to mobile to accelerate in 2014 on the world-fast LTE network upgrade .................................................... 228 Mobile game: Highly competitive + short product life cycle  Power shift from developers to platforms .................................................. 229 Leading PC game developers to enjoy ‘The survival takes it all’ trend on subdued competition................................................................. 231
  5. 5. 5 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Paradigm shift into messaging apps............................................... 233 Naver’s social networking business goes global market................. 236 Korea Company Outlooks ........................................................... 237 Naver............................................................................................. 237 NCSoft........................................................................................... 240 Daum............................................................................................. 243 WeMade Entertainment ................................................................. 246 NHN Entertainment........................................................................ 250 Gamevil.......................................................................................... 253 Japan Sector Outlook.................................................................. 257 Smartphones Are Changing the World........................................... 258 E-commerce: Five factors likely to accelerate shift toward e-commerce ...................................................................................................... 262 Smartphone-driven growth creating good conditions for online advertising ..................................................................................... 264 Japan Company Outlooks........................................................... 266 Yahoo Japan (4689)....................................................................... 266 ASKUL (2678)................................................................................ 270 Rakuten (4755).............................................................................. 274 Gurunavi (2440)............................................................................. 278 Kakaku.com (2371)........................................................................ 282 CyberAgent (4751)......................................................................... 286 DeNA (2432).................................................................................. 290 Gree (3632) ................................................................................... 293 Europe Sector Outlook................................................................ 296 W. European online usage: plenty still to come.............................. 299 Mobile: a major growth driver beginning to make its mark.............. 301 Online Advertising: structural shift to online still gaining speed....... 305 Russia Sector Outlook................................................................. 307 Russian Internet Themes............................................................... 308 Russia Company Outlooks.......................................................... 313 Mail.ru Group................................................................................. 313 Yandex........................................................................................... 317 The authors acknowledge the contribution to this report of Pranav Goel of J.P. Morgan India Private Limited and Binbin Ding of J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Pacific Limited.
  6. 6. 6 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Global Comp Sheet Figure 1: Global Internet Comp Sheet – Sorted by Region Price Date Mkt Cap 13-15 15 13-15 Covering Company Ticker 1/6/2014 USD 2014 2015 EPS Y/Y PEG 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 Rev Ratings Analyst U.S. Google Inc GOOG $1,117.32 384,210 21.0x 17.2x 22% 0.8 12.0x 9.5x 16.8x 12.8x 5.4x 4.3x 19% OW Doug Anmuth Amazon.com Inc AMZN $393.63 182,251 78.2x 60.3x 34% 1.8 25.5x 19.6x 34.9x 25.6x 1.8x 1.4x 22% N Doug Anmuth Facebook Inc FB $57.20 146,495 47.1x 34.4x 40% 0.9 20.3x 15.1x 36.3x 25.9x 11.9x 8.9x 38% OW Doug Anmuth eBay Inc EBAY $51.78 68,084 17.1x 15.1x 13% 1.1 9.2x 7.5x 11.1x 9.5x 3.0x 2.4x 14% OW Doug Anmuth priceline.com Inc PCLN $1,139.53 60,150 22.1x 17.9x 25% 0.7 15.9x 12.2x 19.3x 14.8x 6.3x 4.9x 22% OW Doug Anmuth Twitter Inc TWTR $66.29 50,588 NM NM NM NM 514.3x 196.1x NM NM 45.7x 30.9x 62% N Doug Anmuth Yahoo! Inc YHOO $39.93 42,896 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NR Doug Anmuth LinkedIn Corp LNKD $203.92 24,261 96.4x 55.5x 54% 1.0 41.3x 29.8x 319.7x 40.3x 10.7x 8.1x 37% OW Doug Anmuth Netflix Inc NFLX $359.57 22,083 80.3x 46.8x 113% 0.4 37.0x 23.1x 104.8x 32.0x 4.0x 3.3x 20% OW Doug Anmuth TripAdvisor Inc TRIP $80.38 11,997 36.8x 29.4x 27% 1.1 23.8x 18.9x 33.0x 25.5x 9.9x 8.0x 24% N Doug Anmuth Expedia Inc EXPE $68.96 9,528 18.6x 15.1x 22% 0.7 7.9x 6.0x 8.8x 7.2x 1.6x 1.2x 10% N Doug Anmuth Groupon Inc GRPN $11.89 8,298 44.2x 25.8x 107% 0.2 23.2x 17.7x 19.6x 6.5x 2.3x 2.0x 16% N Doug Anmuth Pandora Media Inc P $31.49 6,809 103.3x 43.5x 298% 0.1 85.8x 32.4x 93.8x 38.2x 6.5x 4.6x 43% OW Doug Anmuth Yelp Inc YELP $71.72 5,131 84.9x 62.8x 311% 0.2 69.1x 40.2x 82.2x 59.8x 13.8x 9.5x 51% OW Kaizad Gotla HomeAway Inc AWAY $40.92 3,663 49.6x 40.6x 26% 1.5 25.1x 20.2x 25.0x 21.6x 7.6x 6.3x 20% OW Doug Anmuth Zynga Inc ZNGA $4.04 3,523 NM NM NM NM 158.7x 124.9x 30.1x NM 3.0x 3.2x -6% N Doug Anmuth Criteo SA CRTO $32.71 2,094 89.1x 44.4x 77% 0.6 25.4x 15.6x 254.0x 49.2x 5.1x 4.1x 35% OW Doug Anmuth OpenTable Inc OPEN $79.55 1,942 34.3x 29.5x 17% 1.8 17.7x 14.7x 26.1x 21.5x 7.7x 6.5x 18% N Kaizad Gotla Bankrate Inc RATE $16.64 1,665 20.9x 18.0x 33% 0.5 10.9x 9.0x 18.5x NM 3.2x 2.7x 13% N Doug Anmuth Trulia Inc TRLA $36.83 1,416 40.5x 42.4x 15% 2.9 24.8x 15.6x 29.2x 21.5x 5.2x 3.9x 54% OW Doug Anmuth Chegg Inc CHGG $8.26 746 NM 18.9x NM NM 141.7x 11.9x 58.8x 14.4x 1.9x 1.5x 25% OW Doug Anmuth QuinStreet Inc QNST $8.76 379 22.0x 14.3x -43% -0.3 9.0x 7.6x 22.7x 9.6x 1.1x 1.1x 3% N Doug Anmuth ReachLocal Inc RLOC $12.73 369 26.1x 15.1x 44% 0.3 6.5x 3.5x 8.0x NM 0.4x 0.3x 13% OW Doug Anmuth CafePress Inc PRSS $6.33 111 13.7x 9.6x 200% 0.0 3.9x 2.7x 12.2x 5.9x 0.3x 0.2x 10% N Doug Anmuth China Tencent Holdings Ltd 700 HK HKD 495.60 124,193 227.0x 170.5x 40% 4.3 21.5x 15.3x 28.5x 20.9x 8.5x 6.3x 36% OW Alex Yao Baidu Inc BIDU US $176.63 61,925 22.8x 17.3x 41% 0.4 17.5x 12.2x 23.9x 12.7x 7.5x 5.3x 36% OW Alex Yao Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd QIHU US $80.10 10,520 35.3x 24.1x 57% 0.4 29.9x 18.5x 47.3x 25.1x 8.9x 6.0x 54% OW Alex Yao NetEase Inc NTES US $78.03 10,180 13.0x 11.3x 11% 1.0 11.1x 9.5x 13.1x 11.3x 5.4x 4.8x 10% N Alex Yao Ctrip.com International Ltd CTRP US $44.43 7,420 23.9x 18.7x 24% 0.8 30.2x 21.1x 27.4x 21.1x 5.9x 4.5x 28% N Alex Yao SouFun Holdings Ltd SFUN US $83.98 6,873 21.2x 17.7x 19% 0.9 15.6x 12.6x 20.5x 15.5x 8.3x 6.6x 21% OW Alex Yao Sina Corp SINA US $84.35 6,153 37.0x 28.9x 61% 0.5 36.2x 24.0x 54.5x 33.9x 6.3x 4.9x 29% OW Alex Yao Youku Tudou Inc YOKU US $33.92 5,645 242.3x 50.6x NM NM 36.5x 21.2x 38.9x 22.7x 8.1x 5.9x 39% N Alex Yao Vipshop Holdings Ltd VIPS US $82.28 4,722 35.8x 24.3x 73% 0.3 29.1x 18.3x 26.6x 26.7x 1.5x 1.0x 62% OW Alex Yao YY Inc YY US $57.34 3,384 25.3x 19.7x 40% 0.5 24.5x 16.8x 23.1x 17.4x 6.6x 4.5x 49% OW Alex Yao Sohu.com Inc SOHU US $73.94 2,883 30.1x 29.9x 32% 0.9 6.6x 5.5x 8.4x 12.6x 1.2x 0.9x 18% N Alex Yao Forgame Holdings Ltd 484 HK HKD 55.90 940 93.2x 72.9x -12% -5.9 6.7x 4.2x 8.0x 5.2x 2.3x 1.5x 32% OW Alex Yao Phoenix New Media Ltd FENG US $9.81 779 13.8x 10.5x 28% 0.4 9.7x 6.3x 11.5x 7.7x 1.8x 1.4x 24% OW Alex Yao Sungy Mobile Ltd GOMO US $20.18 759 27.3x 17.1x 27% 0.6 30.3x 15.8x 25.2x 14.3x 7.7x 4.8x 52% N Alex Yao E-commerce China Dangdang Inc DANG US $9.00 742 NM 45.0x NM NM 76.1x 17.4x NM 14.0x 0.5x 0.4x 18% UW Alex Yao Korea (in KRW) Naver 035420 KS KRW 699,000 19,563 35.5x 22.8x 53% 0.4 22.7x 14.1x 40.9x 24.0x 6.8x 5.2x 28% OW Stanley Yang NCSoft 036570 KS KRW 234,000 4,362 15.2x 13.7x 43% 0.3 10.1x 8.6x 16.6x 13.4x 4.2x 3.6x 16% OW Stanley Yang NHN Ent. 181710 KS KRW 91,700 1,308 14.1x 14.5x -8% -1.9 7.3x 7.4x 16.3x 16.6x 1.7x 1.6x 3% UW Stanley Yang Daum 035720 KS KRW 84,700 1,068 14.5x 13.2x 10% 1.4 5.7x 4.8x 11.3x 9.2x 1.3x 1.1x 10% N Stanley Yang Wemade 112040 KS KRW 32,000 500 13.7x 9.7x 49% 0.2 7.5x 5.0x 14.9x 8.7x 1.6x 1.3x 12% N Stanley Yang Gamevil 063080 KS KRW 44,600 270 15.6x 14.1x 10% 1.4 11.2x 9.9x 18.9x 15.7x 2.3x 2.0x 17% UW Stanley Yang Japan (in Yen) Yahoo! Japan 4689 ¥592.00 32,672 26.2x 22.6x 11% 2.1 12.2x 10.6x 23.1x 19.0x 6.7x 5.9x 9% OW Haruka Mori Rakuten 4755 ¥1,586.00 20,133 31.8x 25.1x 28% 0.9 13.9x 11.3x 54.1x 38.6x 3.6x 3.2x 10% N Haruka Mori Kakaku 2371 ¥1,830.00 3,982 33.0x 26.0x 31% 0.8 18.9x 15.3x 33.5x 25.5x 10.6x 8.9x 20% N Haruka Mori NEXON 3659 ¥941.00 3,965 10.4x 10.2x 2% 6.2 4.0x 3.3x 5.5x 4.6x 1.8x 1.5x 4% N Haruka Mori DeNA 2432 ¥2,151.00 3,113 10.2x 9.9x 2% 5.8 3.3x 2.8x 5.7x 4.7x 1.1x 0.9x 3% OW Haruka Mori CyberAgent 4751 ¥4,400.00 2,669 23.3x 21.7x 12% 1.8 8.6x 7.8x 17.6x 16.1x 1.2x 1.0x 6% N Haruka Mori GREE 3632 ¥1,033.00 2,415 11.7x 11.5x 14% 0.8 4.5x 4.0x 7.4x 6.5x 1.4x 1.2x 3% N Haruka Mori ASKUL 2678 ¥3,020.00 1,572 34.1x 23.7x 52% 0.5 11.0x 8.7x 32.0x 23.7x 0.5x 0.4x 18% OW Haruka Mori Gurunavi 2440 ¥3,135.00 782 25.5x 18.5x 38% 0.5 8.6x 7.1x 19.5x 15.5x 2.1x 1.8x 10% OW Haruka Mori Europe Schibsted SCH NO £417.00 7,226 50.2x 35.3x 52% 0.7 20.9x 17.6x 46.7x 37.7x 3.0x 2.8x 4% N Nicolas Dubourg Axel Springer SPR GR £47.35 3,429 19.0x 16.9x 1% 18.2 9.8x 8.9x 12.4x 14.6x 1.7x 1.6x -3% N Nicolas Dubourg Rightmove RMV LN £2,805.00 1,693 28.4x 23.5x 22% 1.1 21.7x 17.7x 29.0x 23.0x 16.4x 13.5x 17% OW Nicolas Dubourg CTS Eventim EVD GY € 39.30 1,384 21.9x 19.2x 14% 1.3 12.1x 10.4x 15.3x 12.9x 2.9x 2.6x 5% OW Nicolas Dubourg Ubisoft UBI FP € 10.04 743 15.5x 8.1x NM NM 1.9x 1.5x 161.3x 11.4x 0.7x 0.6x 20% N Nicolas Dubourg Money Supermarket MONY LN £189.30 625 15.6x 14.3x 11% 1.3 11.5x 10.3x 16.1x 14.3x 4.2x 3.8x 8% N Nicolas Dubourg Gameloft GFT FP € 7.93 501 18.6x 12.8x 48% 0.3 8.9x 5.9x 13.9x 9.3x 2.1x 1.6x 17% OW Nicolas Dubourg Perform PER LN £224.80 360 21.9x 17.2x 19% 0.9 12.9x 10.2x 28.4x 21.9x 2.3x 2.0x 14% N Nicolas Dubourg XING O1BC GY £79.31 325 31.4x 25.7x 29% 0.9 12.4x 10.1x 22.1x 18.7x 3.9x 3.4x 11% UW Nicolas Dubourg Latin America MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $101.49 4,481 32.0x 26.3x 25% 1.1 20.1x 15.6x 30.2x 22.7x 7.2x 5.7x 22% N Andrew Baggio Russia Yandex YNDX $42.91 13,982 28.4x 22.7x 19% 1.2 18.4x 14.9x NM NM 8.2x 6.6x 26% OW Alexi Gogolev Mail.ru MAIL LI $42.64 8,916 21.9x 18.3x 22% 0.8 14.7x 12.3x 17.2x 14.6x 8.0x 6.7x 21% OW Alexi Gogolev EV/RevenueEV/EBITDAP/E EV/FCF Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.
  7. 7. 7 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 2: Global Internet Comp Sheet – Sorted by Market Cap Price Date Mkt Cap 13-15 15 13-15 Covering Company Ticker 1/6/2014 USD 2014 2015 EPS Y/Y PEG 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 Rev Ratings Analyst > $50B Google Inc GOOG $1,117.32 384,210 21.0x 17.2x 22% 0.8 12.0x 9.5x 16.8x 12.8x 5.4x 4.3x 19% OW Doug Anmuth Amazon.com Inc AMZN $393.63 182,251 78.2x 60.3x 34% 1.8 25.5x 19.6x 34.9x 25.6x 1.8x 1.4x 22% N Doug Anmuth Facebook Inc FB $57.20 146,495 47.1x 34.4x 40% 0.9 20.3x 15.1x 36.3x 25.9x 11.9x 8.9x 38% OW Doug Anmuth Tencent Holdings Ltd 700 HK HKD 495.60 124,193 227.0x 170.5x 40% 4.3 21.5x 15.3x 28.5x 20.9x 8.5x 6.3x 36% OW Alex Yao eBay Inc EBAY $51.78 68,084 17.1x 15.1x 13% 1.1 9.2x 7.5x 11.1x 9.5x 3.0x 2.4x 14% OW Doug Anmuth Baidu Inc BIDU US $176.63 61,925 22.8x 17.3x 41% 0.4 17.5x 12.2x 23.9x 12.7x 7.5x 5.3x 36% OW Alex Yao priceline.com Inc PCLN $1,139.53 60,150 22.1x 17.9x 25% 0.7 15.9x 12.2x 19.3x 14.8x 6.3x 4.9x 22% OW Doug Anmuth Twitter Inc TWTR $66.29 50,588 NM NM NM NM 514.3x 196.1x NM NM 45.7x 30.9x 62% N Doug Anmuth $10B - $49B Yahoo! Inc YHOO $39.93 42,896 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NR Doug Anmuth Yahoo! Japan 4689 ¥592.00 32,672 26.2x 22.6x 11% 2.1 12.2x 10.6x 23.1x 19.0x 6.7x 5.9x 9% OW Haruka Mori LinkedIn Corp LNKD $203.92 24,261 96.4x 55.5x 54% 1.0 41.3x 29.8x 319.7x 40.3x 10.7x 8.1x 37% OW Doug Anmuth Netflix Inc NFLX $359.57 22,083 80.3x 46.8x 113% 0.4 37.0x 23.1x 104.8x 32.0x 4.0x 3.3x 20% OW Doug Anmuth Rakuten 4755 ¥1,586.00 20,133 31.8x 25.1x 28% 0.9 13.9x 11.3x 54.1x 38.6x 3.6x 3.2x 10% N Haruka Mori Naver 035420 KS KRW 699,000 19,563 35.5x 22.8x 53% 0.4 22.7x 14.1x 40.9x 24.0x 6.8x 5.2x 28% OW Stanley Yang Yandex YNDX $42.91 13,982 28.4x 22.7x 19% 1.2 18.4x 14.9x NM NM 8.2x 6.6x 26% OW Alexi Gogolev TripAdvisor Inc TRIP $80.38 11,997 36.8x 29.4x 27% 1.1 23.8x 18.9x 33.0x 25.5x 9.9x 8.0x 24% N Doug Anmuth Qihoo 360 Technology Co., Ltd QIHU US $80.10 10,520 35.3x 24.1x 57% 0.4 29.9x 18.5x 47.3x 25.1x 8.9x 6.0x 54% OW Alex Yao NetEase Inc NTES US $78.03 10,180 13.0x 11.3x 11% 1.0 11.1x 9.5x 13.1x 11.3x 5.4x 4.8x 10% N Alex Yao $2B - $10B Expedia Inc EXPE $68.96 9,528 18.6x 15.1x 22% 0.7 7.9x 6.0x 8.8x 7.2x 1.6x 1.2x 10% N Doug Anmuth Mail.ru MAIL LI $42.64 8,916 21.9x 18.3x 22% 0.8 14.7x 12.3x 17.2x 14.6x 8.0x 6.7x 21% OW Alexi Gogolev Groupon Inc GRPN $11.89 8,298 44.2x 25.8x 107% 0.2 23.2x 17.7x 19.6x 6.5x 2.3x 2.0x 16% N Doug Anmuth Ctrip.com International Ltd CTRP US $44.43 7,420 23.9x 18.7x 24% 0.8 30.2x 21.1x 27.4x 21.1x 5.9x 4.5x 28% N Alex Yao Schibsted SCH NO NOK 417.00 7,226 50.2x 35.3x 52% 0.7 20.9x 17.6x 46.7x 37.7x 3.0x 2.8x 4% N Nicolas Dubourg Pandora Media Inc P $31.49 6,809 103.3x 43.5x 298% 0.1 85.8x 32.4x 93.8x 38.2x 6.5x 4.6x 43% OW Doug Anmuth SouFun Holdings Ltd SFUN US $83.98 6,873 21.2x 17.7x 19% 0.9 15.6x 12.6x 20.5x 15.5x 8.3x 6.6x 21% OW Alex Yao Sina Corp SINA US $84.35 6,153 37.0x 28.9x 61% 0.5 36.2x 24.0x 54.5x 33.9x 6.3x 4.9x 29% OW Alex Yao Youku Tudou Inc YOKU US $33.92 5,645 242.3x 50.6x NM NM 36.5x 21.2x 38.9x 22.7x 8.1x 5.9x 39% N Alex Yao Yelp Inc YELP $71.72 5,131 84.9x 62.8x 311% 0.2 69.1x 40.2x 82.2x 59.8x 13.8x 9.5x 51% OW Kaizad Gotla Vipshop Holdings Ltd VIPS US $82.28 4,722 35.8x 24.3x 73% 0.3 29.1x 18.3x 26.6x 26.7x 1.5x 1.0x 62% OW Alex Yao MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $101.49 4,481 32.0x 26.3x 25% 1.1 20.1x 15.6x 30.2x 22.7x 7.2x 5.7x 22% N Andrew Baggio NCSoft 036570 KS KRW 234,000 4,362 15.2x 13.7x 43% 0.3 10.1x 8.6x 16.6x 13.4x 4.2x 3.6x 16% OW Stanley Yang Kakaku 2371 ¥1,830.00 3,982 33.0x 26.0x 31% 0.8 18.9x 15.3x 33.5x 25.5x 10.6x 8.9x 20% N Haruka Mori NEXON 3659 ¥941.00 3,965 10.4x 10.2x 2% 6.2 4.0x 3.3x 5.5x 4.6x 1.8x 1.5x 4% N Haruka Mori HomeAway Inc AWAY $40.92 3,663 49.6x 40.6x 26% 1.5 25.1x 20.2x 25.0x 21.6x 7.6x 6.3x 20% OW Doug Anmuth Zynga Inc ZNGA $4.04 3,523 NM NM NM NM 158.7x 124.9x 30.1x NM 3.0x 3.2x -6% N Doug Anmuth Axel Springer SPR GR € 47.35 3,429 19.0x 16.9x 1% 18.2 9.8x 8.9x 12.4x 14.6x 1.7x 1.6x -3% N Nicolas Dubourg YY Inc YY US $57.34 3,384 25.3x 19.7x 40% 0.5 24.5x 16.8x 23.1x 17.4x 6.6x 4.5x 49% OW Alex Yao DeNA 2432 ¥2,151.00 3,113 10.2x 9.9x 2% 5.8 3.3x 2.8x 5.7x 4.7x 1.1x 0.9x 3% OW Haruka Mori Sohu.com Inc SOHU US $73.94 2,883 30.1x 29.9x 32% 0.9 6.6x 5.5x 8.4x 12.6x 1.2x 0.9x 18% N Alex Yao CyberAgent 4751 ¥4,400.00 2,669 23.3x 21.7x 12% 1.8 8.6x 7.8x 17.6x 16.1x 1.2x 1.0x 6% N Haruka Mori GREE 3632 ¥1,033.00 2,415 11.7x 11.5x 14% 0.8 4.5x 4.0x 7.4x 6.5x 1.4x 1.2x 3% N Haruka Mori Criteo SA CRTO $32.71 2,094 89.1x 44.4x 77% 0.6 25.4x 15.6x 254.0x 49.2x 5.1x 4.1x 35% OW Doug Anmuth < $2B OpenTable Inc OPEN $79.55 1,942 34.3x 29.5x 17% 1.8 17.7x 14.7x 26.1x 21.5x 7.7x 6.5x 18% N Kaizad Gotla Bankrate Inc RATE $16.64 1,665 20.9x 18.0x 33% 0.5 10.9x 9.0x 18.5x NM 3.2x 2.7x 13% N Doug Anmuth Rightmove RMV LN £2,805.00 1,693 28.4x 23.5x 22% 1.1 21.7x 17.7x 29.0x 23.0x 16.4x 13.5x 17% OW Nicolas Dubourg ASKUL 2678 ¥3,020.00 1,572 34.1x 23.7x 52% 0.5 11.0x 8.7x 32.0x 23.7x 0.5x 0.4x 18% OW Haruka Mori Trulia Inc TRLA $36.83 1,416 40.5x 42.4x 15% 2.9 24.8x 15.6x 29.2x 21.5x 5.2x 3.9x 54% OW Doug Anmuth CTS Eventim EVD GY € 39.30 1,384 21.9x 19.2x 14% 1.3 12.1x 10.4x 15.3x 12.9x 2.9x 2.6x 5% OW Nicolas Dubourg NHN Ent. 181710 KS KRW 91,700 1,308 14.1x 14.5x -8% -1.9 7.3x 7.4x 16.3x 16.6x 1.7x 1.6x 3% UW Stanley Yang Daum 035720 KS KRW 84,700 1,068 14.5x 13.2x 10% 1.4 5.7x 4.8x 11.3x 9.2x 1.3x 1.1x 10% N Stanley Yang Forgame Holdings Ltd 484 HK HKD 55.90 940 93.2x 72.9x -12% -5.9 6.7x 4.2x 8.0x 5.2x 2.3x 1.5x 32% OW Alex Yao Phoenix New Media Ltd FENG US $9.81 779 13.8x 10.5x 28% 0.4 9.7x 6.3x 11.5x 7.7x 1.8x 1.4x 24% OW Alex Yao Gurunavi 2440 ¥3,135.00 782 25.5x 18.5x 38% 0.5 8.6x 7.1x 19.5x 15.5x 2.1x 1.8x 10% OW Haruka Mori Sungy Mobile Ltd GOMO US $20.18 759 27.3x 17.1x 27% 0.6 30.3x 15.8x 25.2x 14.3x 7.7x 4.8x 52% N Alex Yao E-commerce China Dangdang Inc DANG US $9.00 742 NM 45.0x NM NM 76.1x 17.4x NM 14.0x 0.5x 0.4x 18% UW Alex Yao Chegg Inc CHGG $8.26 746 NM 18.9x NM NM 141.7x 11.9x 58.8x 14.4x 1.9x 1.5x 25% OW Doug Anmuth Ubisoft UBI FP € 10.04 743 15.5x 8.1x NM NM 1.9x 1.5x 161.3x 11.4x 0.7x 0.6x 20% N Nicolas Dubourg Money Supermarket MONY LN £189.30 625 15.6x 14.3x 11% 1.3 11.5x 10.3x 16.1x 14.3x 4.2x 3.8x 8% N Nicolas Dubourg Gameloft GFT FP € 7.93 501 18.6x 12.8x 48% 0.3 8.9x 5.9x 13.9x 9.3x 2.1x 1.6x 17% OW Nicolas Dubourg Wemade 112040 KS KRW 32,000 500 13.7x 9.7x 49% 0.2 7.5x 5.0x 14.9x 8.7x 1.6x 1.3x 12% N Stanley Yang QuinStreet Inc QNST $8.76 379 22.0x 14.3x -43% -0.3 9.0x 7.6x 22.7x 9.6x 1.1x 1.1x 3% N Doug Anmuth ReachLocal Inc RLOC $12.73 369 26.1x 15.1x 44% 0.3 6.5x 3.5x 8.0x NM 0.4x 0.3x 13% OW Doug Anmuth Perform PER LN £224.80 360 21.9x 17.2x 19% 0.9 12.9x 10.2x 28.4x 21.9x 2.3x 2.0x 14% N Nicolas Dubourg XING O1BC GY € 79.31 325 31.4x 25.7x 29% 0.9 12.4x 10.1x 22.1x 18.7x 3.9x 3.4x 11% UW Nicolas Dubourg Gamevil 063080 KS KRW 44,600 270 15.6x 14.1x 10% 1.4 11.2x 9.9x 18.9x 15.7x 2.3x 2.0x 17% UW Stanley Yang CafePress Inc PRSS $6.33 111 13.7x 9.6x 200% 0.0 3.9x 2.7x 12.2x 5.9x 0.3x 0.2x 10% N Doug Anmuth EV/FCF EV/RevenueEV/EBITDAP/E Source: Company reports, Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.
  8. 8. 8 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Global Internet Top Picks U.S. Facebook: Overweight, $62 PT. Facebook remains a top pick into 2014 as we believe it is still early in monetizing the company’s base of 1.2B users globally. Facebook’s mobile advertising should surpass desktop in 4Q13 and we expect mobile to account for 63% of total ad revenue in 2014. We believe advertiser demand and ads quality should more than offset slower increases in ad load, thereby driving higher relevancy and click-through rates and ultimately greater quality over time. We think Instagram and auto-play video ads could also drive upside to our and Street estimates. We note that our 2014 PF EPS estimate for Facebook is currently 7% above consensus and our 2015 estimate is 12% ahead. Google: Overweight, $1,305 PT. We believe Google’s strong position in both mobile and video should drive continued share gains in online advertising, and Google remains focused on product innovation and disruptive technologies. As users become more comfortable and savvy transacting through mobile devices and Google delivers more efficient and better-targeted ads through initiatives such as Estimated Total Conversions and Enhanced Campaigns, we expect mobile to become a bigger tailwind for the company in upcoming quarters. We are also increasingly optimistic on YouTube now that the company is utilizing Nielsen’s Online Campaign Ratings (OCR) tags. Our ad industry discussions suggest that TV ad buyers would like to spend more money online and we believe familiar measurement methodology through OCR will help to accelerate this shift. We remain optimistic on Google growing traction with PLAs into 2014 and the potential for Network Sites to rebound from a heavily self-inflicted slowdown in 2013. We expect Google to continue to deliver strong growth off a large base and we believe the combination of growth and stability in the business model, still-reasonable valuation (17.2x 2015E PF EPS), and significant cash on the balance sheet (~15% of the market cap) help make Google a strong play in 2014. LinkedIn: Overweight, $275 PT. We believe LinkedIn is well positioned to benefit from the secular shift toward enterprise hiring, expanded field sales efforts, and new products. We would be buyers of the recent weakness in LinkedIn as we remain optimistic on Talent Solutions growth driven by deeper enterprise penetration, a pricing increase impacting half of all subscribers in 2014, and potential for stabilization in international markets. We also expect accelerating Marketing Solutions growth in 2014 as LinkedIn laps tougher comps after 1Q and Sponsored Updates should benefit from significant dollars moving toward Newsfeed and Native ads. It remains early for Sales Navigator, but we believe the product will be extended more towards corporates this year. We believe LinkedIn remains focused on product innovation and engagement and we would take advantage of recent weakness in the shares. Pandora: Overweight, $35 PT. Pandora is our top SMid-cap pick as we continue to view the stock as a compelling pure play on mobile and believe the company is at an inflection point on monetization. We highlight recent listener metrics and app download trends, which represent solid continued growth in hours, users, and market share despite a heightened competitive environment. We also highlight recent updates to Pandora’s auto strategy, including achieving 4M unique native auto
  9. 9. 9 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com activations and introducing in-car targeted advertising. We believe Pandora’s monetization and profitability will improve going forward as: 1) Pandora’s 8.6% market share of total US radio should continue to ramp; 2) radio buy-side platform integration should remove friction from the buying process and attract more ad spend; 3) increased audience segmentation and auto-focused campaigns should help support increasing CPMs; 4) Pandora continues to build out its local sales force (now in 29 of top 40 markets); and 5) cost-control policies including the limit to mobile skips should help curb content costs in place of the 40-hour mobile cap, enabling greater leverage in content acquisition. China Tencent: Overweight, HK$580 PT. We maintain our Overweight rating on Tencent with a Dec-14 PT of HK$580. We believe Tencent is a dominant leader in China’s gaming market and it is expected to capture a 48% market share in China’s total gaming market in 2014. On PC side, we expect Tencent’s revenue growth to be driven by continued high-quality hit content (e.g., Blade & Soul and Asura) over the next 2-3 years. On mobile side, Tencent is well positioned across the entire mobile games value chain including development, publishing and distribution. Such positioning allows Tencent to capture a significant portion of value created in China’s mobile gaming market. We estimate Tencent will generate RMB8.2bn mobile gaming revenue in 2014. In the long run, we expect Tencent will obtain more market share in mobile gaming market than in PC gaming market, given its stronger mobile distribution power, Weixin’s high-end user base and fast game genre expansion on mobile. Qihoo: Overweight, US$98 PT. We maintain our Overweight rting on Qihoo with a Dec-14 PT of US$98. We view Qihoo as one of the key beneficiaries in the fast- growing mobile gaming market in China over the next two years, due to its wide exposure to mobile users (over 400m monthly active users on mobile) and strong distribution power on mobile (over 45m daily average distribution volume from 360 Mobile Assistant). We estimate Qihoo will capture 12% of China’s mobile gaming market in 2014. Qihoo should generate RMB1.8bn revenue from such a market share. Meanwhile, we expect Qihoo to quickly ramp up monetization of its search traffic in 2014, which is currently significantly under-monetized (1.6% revenue share vs. over 20% traffic share). YY: Overweight, US$67 PT. We maintain our Overweight rating on YY with a Dec-14 PT of US$67. YY has established a large social-oriented user base on the back of its technology strengths in rich-media-based group communications on a real-time basis. Such an advantage is highly scalable to other internet activities which require online group voice/video communications, e.g., online recruiting and online education. Meanwhile, with sizable organic traffic, YY is able to cross-sell other internet content/services (e.g., online gaming) to users. We expect YY’s growth in 2014 to be primarily driven by 1) continued strong growth of YY Music, 2) PC game licensing, and 3) mobile games development and publishing.
  10. 10. 10 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Korea Naver: Overweight, W770,000 PT. Internet traffic is highly concentrated in the dominant portal, Naver, in Korea. We are positive on the potential monetization upside of Naver’s mobile ad business. We also believe the potential monetization upside of Naver’s global social networking business has yet to be fully captured by the market due to the time lag between subscriber growth and monetization. NCsoft: Overweight, W300,000 PT. We like the company’s leading global position in the captive hardcore MMORPG market on significantly subdued competition (a few survivors take all). The upcoming launches of GW2 in China and Wild Star in the US/EU are expected to serve as additional share price catalysts, in addition to B&S’s current strong traction in China. Japan Yahoo Japan: Overweight, ¥600 PT. Following the shift to an advertising income model, we expect the stock to gradually start pricing in the medium-term potential for e-commerce as investors confirm that growth in the number of store openings boosts product numbers, increases customer pulling power, and expands sales value. However, we expect smartphone advertising and YDN to drive stable growth for core advertising sales for the foreseeable future, and think the stock is very attractive from a risk/reward perspective. Askul: Overweight, ¥3,700 PT. While valuations look demanding and the share price appears to have risen on investor expectations, we think LOHACO will gradually start to benefit from Yahoo Japan’s initiatives (which will step up from early 2014) as faster growth in e-commerce provides a tailwind. Specifically, we note 1) benefits in terms of attracting customers, 2) the use of big data, and 3) growth in logistics volumes. We focus on this stock because we think it could be major beneficiary of Yahoo Japan’s new e-commerce strategy. Europe Gameloft: Overweight, €9.50 PT. We are Overweight on Gameloft with target price of €9.50. Gameloft is one of the leading developers of games for digital platforms such as mobile phones, smartphones and tablets and, in our view, an ideal play on soaring mobile device sales along with freemium games across the globe. The future for the online game industry looks bright: the number of smartphone subscriptions is set to triple to 5.6bn by 2019, with APAC reaching 4.7bn. Within mobile use, gaming is the 3rd most popular activity (6h per month, source: Ericsson mobility report, November). And Gameloft is likely to be a key beneficiary due to 1) unparalleled mobile exposure: games on smartphones and tablets made up 69% of Gameloft’s revenues in Q313 (mobile 98% of Q2 in total), 2) great geographical exposure: LatAm and APAC already made up 36% of revenues in Q3, 3) focus on freemium: sales of virtual goods and advertising within games accounted for 80% of Gameloft’s Q3 smartphone revenues, offering access to gamers at lower price points and recurring revenues from a given game, 4) limited single-game risk: no game contributes over 10% of revenues, so Gameloft is not dependent on one hit. On our estimates, +17% revenues CAGR’13-’15 translates into +37% EBITDA CAGR even as, we assume c.60% of adj. operating costs are fixed (i.e. growing at c.7% p.a. to FY15), with the remainder growing in line with sales. Gameloft stopped hiring in August 2012 (having significantly built up its game developing capacity) and signaled that up to 80% of costs are fixed. H113 results/FY13 guidance then
  11. 11. 11 Global Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com confirmed operating leverage is kicking in. Gameloft may further boost profitability as it reduces its annual slate to 15-20 games by 2014 (vs. FY13’s 22) and focuses on evolving successful games. Gameloft shares are trading on 12.8x 2013E EV/EBITDA which we see as attractive given Gameloft’s 13E-15E EBITDA CAGR of +37%. We leave our estimates unchanged and our EBIT estimate is +10% ahead of BBG consensus in ‘14. Moneysupermarket: Overweight, 211p PT. We are OW the leader in UK online price comparison (from N) as i) ST uncertainty is reduced (Q3 results and FY13 guidance have shown some stabilization/recovery since the flat y/y revenues of July), ii) the Money vertical (c.30% of revs revs’12) will no longer suffer from tough comparables from Q413/Q114 and iii) the structural growth opportunity remains: more customers could switch providers and do so online: switches/new purchases still make up only 26%/13%/16% of yearly market volumes in the key home insurance, cards and energy verticals and only 55%/56%/32% of those purchases occur online, vs. 44%/81% for motor insurance. The next catalyst will be the Q4 post close update on January 14. Energy is providing a case study to support the structural growth view: prospects for Energy price comparison websites have boomed with i) recent increases in UK Energy prices, which have prompted 900k households to switch providers in Oct/Nov’13 and ii) the end of doorstep-selling in 2012, which leaves more space for online sales. We now see Energy contributing £20m to MONY revenues in FY13 (c.9% of group revenues, vs. £8-9m in FY12), rising progressively thereafter. Our MONY Energy revenue estimate for 2016 is consistent with i) 5.6m Energy customers switching providers overall in the UK (no change vs. 2012), ii) 50% doing so online (vs. 32% for Energy in 2012 and 55% for Home Insurance), iii) MONY taking a 16% market share of online switches (more than the c.9% we estimate for 2012 but less than MONY’s apparent share in October’13), at JPMe c.£60 fee per switch. We also see increasing mobile adoption favouring MONY. MONY is the market leader in the financial price comparison market (>40% share of visits) and we expect their app to be the leader. Mobile users have only a few apps they use on a regular base: this creates significant barriers to entry and increases market share. Our EPS estimates are in line/+5% ahead of BBG. Our Dec-14E PT is DCF-based (WACC of 9%, g 2%) and is 211p. MONY trades at 12.9x EV/EBITDA’13 for 9% EBITDA CAGR’13-’15 but also a highly competitive 6.3% Equity FCF yield ’14 & 4.1% dividend yield ’14. Our Bull case offers a DCF value of 236p and 28% upside. Russia Yandex: Overweight, $50 PT. Yandex is the leading advertising platform in Russia with over 300K+ advertisers in 1H13, accounting for c57% of the Russia online ad market. Yandex is also #1 internet destination, with c55 mn unique monthly visitors. Yandex is leveraging its platform and has become #1 comparison shopping destination, used by 40% of Russian online shoppers (Source: AKAR). Yandex in Turkey: while its search market share remains in the low-single digits, the company plans to start to monetize its product. We continue to prefer Yandex among the Russian TMT space and see the stock as an attractive long-term play on Russian consumption and internet roll-out. We believe the name deserves a premium valuation due to strong fundamentals, well-regarded corporate governance and high share liquidity. Any announcement on dividend could well extend the share price rally.
  12. 12. 12 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com U.S. Internet Themes for 2014 Revenue and Conversions to Tighten the Gap with Strong Mobile Usage “The trend has been that mobile was winning…it’s now won.” – Eric Schmidt, Google Chairman In 2014, global mobile usage should continue to take share from desktop—having already crossed 50% of total online usage in the U.S. in 2013—and given continuing growth in smartphone and tablet subscribers worldwide. However, the monetization and commerce associated with that usage has lagged, and we think that 2014 can be a year of catch-up as users become savvier and more comfortable with devices, apps continue to improve in functionality and UI, and more sites become mobile- optimized. Importantly, advertising spend on mobile devices is expected to continue growing as a portion of internet spend, which is, of course, also growing. MagnaGlobal expects global mobile advertising revenue will reach $15.9B in 2014, up 31% Y/Y, representing 12.4% of total online ad spend, relative to 10.7% of estimated total spend for 2013. We expect to see key stakeholders’ success increasingly impacted by their ability to take advantage of the mobile shift, including companies with an online advertising-driven business model, and retailers and eCommerce operators. The discussion below includes: 1) how far along we are in the mobile usage transition; 2) how users engage differently with mobile sites and apps relative to engagement and conversion patterns on desktop; and 3) which companies are best positioned to benefit most or are already closing the gap between mobile usage and mobile revenue. Nearing Mobile Usage Inflection Point Mobile usage accelerating while penetration continues to grow, but given saturation levels in certain markets, growth may decelerate Current J.P. Morgan estimates put global smartphone shipments at 971M for 2014, and while growth continues, it may decelerate given increasing global penetration as high as 60s-70s (%) in countries including UAE, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Norway. While smartphone penetration is above 50% in most developed countries, according to Google’s Our Mobile Planet research, developing countries still have significant room to grow smartphone users with India’s penetration at only 13%. Additionally, J.P. Morgan estimates put global tablet shipments at 221M in 2013 and are expected to reach 277M in 2014, and 318M in 2015. Despite smartphone and tablet growth reaching more mature levels over the coming years, we believe the monetization associated with those users will grow much faster, as mobile revenue still pales in comparison to mobile usage. We believe that global mobile internet usage is still at a very early growth stage and as traffic per user increases, the way in which users engage with mobile applications and sites will evolve and impact the companies most levered to mobile engagement, including Facebook, Twitter, Pandora, Google, and others. In 2013 we saw many companies—notably Twitter—increase focus on adapting their local services to
  13. 13. 13 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com capitalize on opportunities to engage with developing market consumers, and we expect this trend to become more prominent in 2014. Twitter is working to optimize its platform for developing markets where lower-end smartphones (such as $70-100 Android phones) and feature phones with SMS can leverage the Twitter platform. We believe this represents a significant expansion opportunity. Twitter plans to partner with mobile operators in developing markets to help them market data plans to their subscribers using Twitter, or using Twitter as a lead-in by offering Twitter for free for a limited time to increase signups for mobile data plans. Figure 3: Smartphone Market Shipment Estimates Millions of Smarphones 299 473 680 971 1,088 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E Smartphone market (mn) Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Figure 4: Smartphone Penetration Installed base as % of population 7% 12% 19% 27% 35% 41% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E smartphone penetration Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
  14. 14. 14 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 5: Global Mobile Data Traffic Estimates Petabytes per month 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Petabytes per month Source: Cisco VNI, 2013, A.T. Kearney Analysis, GSMA. Mobile vs. Desktop Engagement Patterns Global inflection point: when global mobile usage will surpass desktop According to comScore, 2013 was the year in which mobile usage in the U.S. first surpassed desktop (Figure 6). Global usage is also trending towards mobile, but remains skewed towards desktop at roughly 78% (Figure 7). We expect the mix shift towards mobile will continue throughout 2014, creating challenges for companies that have been slow to optimize their mobile presence, and creating significant opportunities for those that have led the way in mobile-first product and strategy development. On average, online sites see approximately 49% of their traffic coming from mobile devices as of November, up from 36% a year ago. Figure 6: U.S. Time Spent Online Mobile vs. Desktop Time Spent 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Mobile Minutes % of Total Internet Time Spent Desktop Minutes % of Total Internet Time Spent Source: comScore, as of November 2013.
  15. 15. 15 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 7: U.S. Global Mobile vs. Desktop % of Page Views 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Desktop Mobile Source: Statcounter. Closing the Revenue and Conversion Gap with Usage eCommerce traffic and sales increasingly impacted by Mobile Retail is undoubtedly becoming more mobile, forcing traditional retailers to create effective mobile presences to protect against losing share to eCommerce peers. Even considering occasions when the retail transactions occur in-store, the consumer shopping experience often starts long before that, and likely involves online searches often on mobile devices. According to a survey by Nielson and xAd/Telmetrics, 46% of respondents rely exclusively on smartphones or tablets in conducting online research across a range of purchase categories. The study also found that 60% of smartphone users and 53% of tablet users completed purchases related to their mobile search, and importantly, 74% of smartphone users are completing transactions offline. It’s important to note some differences in mCommerce behavior between smartphone and tablet users. According to MarketLive research, smartphones are driving more traffic to U.S. Apparel and Accessories Retail sites (smartphones represent 28.4% of total online traffic vs. 12.5% from tablet), but tablets are responsible for more than 3x the revenue (smartphone users generated 3.9% of total eCommerce revenue vs. 14.4% from tablet users). These trends provide significant opportunities for mobile-optimized online advertisers, including Facebook, Google, Twitter, and Pandora, to help retailers with a brick-and-mortar presence not only survive, but take advantage of the growing impact mobile is having on retail. It also blurs the line between online and offline commerce, as seen in eBay’s efforts to drive physical sales for a number of retailers including Best Buy and Target. Facebook is making headway in offline attribution, and recently announced increased functionality to help retailers close the loop from placing ads to tracking which users viewed a sponsored post and purchased a product. Retailers will be able to track effectiveness of campaigns given the customer data they already have—including customer emails and phone numbers—cross-referenced with the data users share with Facebook. We note that many traditional retailers have been challenged as they try to adapt a desktop-optimized online presence to fit a smaller screen. Those that have been most successful are those that are executing under a mobile-first strategy and we believe
  16. 16. 16 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com 2014 will be another year of mobile-first product roll-outs and mobile-optimized online presence. We highlight Groupon as an eCommerce company driven by mobile given 60M+ cumulative app downloads and 50%+ of North American transactions occurring on mobile. Holiday spending in 2013 paints a telling picture of the trends we expect to continue into 2014 regarding eCommerce and mCommerce. Cyber Monday mobile traffic grew 58% Y/Y in 2013 according to IBM, and accounted for 30% of total traffic. While traffic is important, we think what is even more important is the fact that 16% of the day’s sales were sourced from mobile/tablet. comScore’s estimates put the mobile portion a little lower at ~11%, but still material, and growing quickly. comScore estimates that mCommerce contributed $5.8B (+26% Y/Y) or roughly 11% to 3Q eCommerce revenue of $53.2B, while desktop contributed $47.5B, up 13% over last year’s figure. Figure 8: Gap Between U.S. Time vs. Dollars Spent on mCommerce, eCommerce, and Total Retail % of Minutes 42% 51% 11% 16% 0.6% 1.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2012 2013 Retail: Mobile Minutes as % of total Online Minutes (Nov-12 and Nov-13) Retail: mCommerce as % of total eCommerce Sales (including tablet) Retail: mCommerce as % of total Retail Sales Source: comScore total minutes in Nov-12 & Nov-13 U.S. on iPhone + Android as a % of iPhone, Android, and Desktop; eMarketer estimates for 2012 and 2014 mCommerce and eCommerce, total Retail sales from census.gov, includes Retail & Food ex Auto. Mobile Advertising Revenue In the U.S., companies are seeing increased mobile traffic, and are making progress in mobile monetization, but a significant gap remains between internet time spent on mobile and advertising revenue generated on mobile for many companies. We expect mobile paid search and mobile display advertising revenue to continue to gain share in 2014 as companies accelerate efforts to close the mobile monetization gap and the mobile experience improves for users. Mobile already accounts for ~27% of search engine traffic, according to RKG, and while the revenue gap is closing at an accelerating pace, digital search dollars are still largely spent on desktop. eMarketer estimates that in 2010, only 2.1% of U.S. digital search dollars were spent on mobile, but that number has risen to 22.1% this year and may rise to 59.6% by 2017, representing $15.3B in mobile search spend. Within mobile, search attracts slightly more ad dollars than display—search represents 51.5% of the estimated $8.5B in mobile ad spend for 2013 in the U.S. while display represents 44.8% of the total, according to the same eMarketer study. However, search may be losing share over time to display, given the growth of mobile-friendly ad formats such as News Feed Ads, Sponsored Updates, and Promoted Tweets from Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and others.
  17. 17. 17 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com We believe Pandora is a compelling pure-play mobile advertising company for which usage is ~80% mobile. In 3QFY14, 73% of the company’s advertising revenue came from mobile. Given that the company’s product is an audio experience, the business model lends itself well to mobile advertising, where the user interaction with an ad is no different on desktop and mobile. Audio ads are interruptive and Pandora’s targetability is high given user-reported information. We believe that Pandora is at an inflection point on monetization driven by its market share gains, buy-side platform integration, and expanding sales efforts. Facebook has also emerged as a leader in monetizing mobile usage; increasing the ad load in the News Feed has been an important driver of the company’s ad revenue growth in 2013, but we believe that users, engagement, and ad quality/pricing have also been significant monetization drivers and will be more important drivers of mobile advertising growth in 2014. Facebook indicated that it expects slowing growth in ad load (i.e., % of News Feed stories that are ads) going forward and that future monetization gains are likely to be driven by ad-quality improvements. The company also indicated that mobile ad load increased modestly from 2Q to 3Q while desktop News Feed ad load increased to a somewhat greater extent. We note that Facebook’s 3Q Mobile revenue grew 34% Q/Q despite relatively modest ad load increases, suggesting users, usage, and ad-quality improvements can continue to drive strong revenue growth going forward. We believe managing ad load is important to maintaining the user experience for the long term and we think higher ad prices can be driven by continued increases in News Feed ad demand and quality, along with FBX in the Mobile News Feed and auto-play video ads. The figure below demonstrates the gap between total online time spent in the U.S. on mobile devices (excluding tablet) relative to the approximate portion of online and total advertising revenue allocated to mobile advertising in 2012 and 2013. Importantly, while monetization improved this year, the gap between mobile time spent and mobile advertising spend has widened as mobile usage growth has been relatively faster. We expect companies to make more progress on closing the gap in 2014, aided by increased targetability, including further adoption of Google’s Enhanced Campaigns device bid adjuster, and expanded and enhanced ad formats focused on increasing mobile advertising ROI.
  18. 18. 18 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 9: Gap Between U.S. Time and Advertising Spend 49% 19% 13% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2013 Nov 2013 % of total Internet timespent on mobile 2013 mobile time spent as % of total Media 3Q13 approx % of Online Advertising revenue from mobile 2013 mobile ad revenue as % of total ad revenue 37% 13% 9% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2012 Nov 2012 % of total Internet timespent on mobile 2012 mobile time spent as % of total Media 3Q12 approx % of Online Advertising revenue from mobile 2012 mobile ad revenue as % of totalad revenue Source: comScore total minutes in U.S. on iPhone + Android as a % of iPhone, Android, and Desktop; MagnaGlobal U.S. mobile advertising revenue estimates for 2012 and 2013 as a % of total U.S. advertising revenue. Mobile ads still need to close the conversion gap with desktop, and videos significantly help One major driver that will help increase monetization opportunities in 2014 for online advertising companies is closing the conversion gap between mobile and desktop. According to a study by BrightEdge released this August, mobile conversions lag those of desktop and tablet on average by ~2/3. However, the study also found some industries generate better mobile conversion rates than others, including travel and hospitality, which converts only 30% less frequently than desktop, and ecommerce, which converts 40% less. Importantly, videos help drive mobile conversions higher than desktop. We note that innovative ad formats and increased targetability are key levers online ad companies can pull to help further this cause. With the introduction of Enhanced Campaigns on Google, clients may be able to boost mobile advertising efficiency by narrowing the target of their campaigns. Advertisers can now target device, time of day, and location for campaigns by utilizing adjustments across these three factors. We believe the enhanced targetability will drive greater overall ROI and ad spend over time. Google has noted positive advertiser feedback on Enhanced Campaigns since launch this summer. The company says it is seeing more frequent bids on mobile keywords, though many advertisers are still adjusting their campaigns. We think the company’s announcement of cross-device measurement tools (i.e., the impact of mobile ads on desktop activity and vice versa) could positively impact advertisers’ mobile ROI calculations and eventual mobile search ad spend. Narrowing the gap between mobile usage and mobile revenue During 2013, many companies for which usage has been quickly shifting towards mobile have made progress in closing the mobile revenue gap and we expect that trend to accelerate in 2014.
  19. 19. 19 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com We note that Pandora and Facebook are companies that stand out in achieving superior mobile monetization, making significant progress in closing the gap. These companies have been able to generate increased mobile advertising demand from higher-quality advertisers. Given the data these companies possess and innovation in mobile ad formats, they have benefited from a mix of pricing and volume increases. For example, Pandora’s video and audio ads command premium pricing to mobile display ads with CPMs in the $15-$25, $8-$12, and $5-$7 range, respectively. We expect these companies to continue to make progress towards mobile monetization and usage equality in 2014. We also highlight companies with significant potential to close larger monetization gaps, including Google. We believe Google has the targetability data, engagement, and ad tech innovation including Enhanced Campaigns to make material progress in closing its monetization gap in 2014.
  20. 20. 20 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Native Ads to Drive Mobile Ad Monetization We believe native ads are quickly becoming the de facto ad format on mobile and increasingly moving into desktop. Native ads are ads embedded in a NewsFeed or stream and in many cases closely resemble organic content, making them much more likely to get clicked on compared to historical banner display ads. According to MAGNA Global, mobile advertising, both display and search, is estimated to be $15.9B in 2014 and forecasted to grow to $20 billion in 2015 and $37 billion by 2018, on par with display. We think there is a significant shift to move advertising dollars toward native and news feed advertising, especially on mobile devices, which we believe will soon account for the majority of Internet usage time. We believe a growing interest in mobile advertising from brand advertisers coupled with improving mobile ad formats suited for smaller screen sizes should help to bridge the gap between time spent on mobile and mobile marketing spend. We believe companies that reach scale in users and rapidly improve mobile monetization will likely take share. While the majority of Facebook and Twitter ad revenue is now generated through native or feed ads, we believe other publishers such as LinkedIn and Yahoo! are also increasingly shifting inventory to the format. According to a June 2013 survey from the Online Publishers Association (OPA) and Radar Research, nearly three-quarters of surveyed publishers in the US said that they already offered native advertising while another 17% said they were considering offering it in 2013. We believe native or feed ads perform well on mobile due to smaller screen sizes, which make it more difficult to serve larger traditional display ads. We think feed ads are also more engaging given they are embedded with the rest of the organic content on a page. Figure 10: U.S. Publishers that Offer Native Advertising on Their Sites Yes, currently, 73% No, 10% Considering offering one this year, 17% Source: eMarketer, June 2013. We think native ads also have significantly higher click-through rates than traditional display ads, which leads to higher pricing over time. For instance, native ads may have represented ~5-10% of Facebook’s impressions in 2013, but accounted for more than 60% of revenue per our estimates, suggesting advertisers are witnessing strong performance from the ad format. We believe scale is very important on mobile and time spent is even more highly concentrated on mobile than desktop, with Facebook accounting for over 20% of all time spent on mobile vs. ~10-15% on desktop.
  21. 21. 21 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Overall, we believe Twitter is in a similar position in monetization as Facebook was a bit more than a year ago when it had just turned on news feed ads across both desktop and mobile. That is to say the basic products are there and still being developed, and we believe it is early in building advertiser demand in the platform. However, we are clearly bullish on the shift of dollars toward news feed ads, particularly on mobile devices, and we expect Twitter to realize significant ARPU gains over time. Twitter offers advertisers some basic re-targeting and programmatic capabilities today, though the company does not offer advertisers the ability to bid on individual impressions in real-time. We believe the addition of Twitter ad inventory on the MoPub Marketplace (i.e., MoPub’s ad exchange) should significantly accelerate Twitter’s efforts in RTB and drive higher monetization and ad pricing over time. We expect strong demand for Twitter’s RTB products from direct response advertisers but also from brand advertisers over time, and we note Facebook continues to witness strong demand for FBX (Facebook Exchange) ads both in the Desktop News Feed as well as its Desktop Right Rail, and we expect FBX to soon move to mobile. Twitter launched Promoted Tweets in the Timeline in April 2010. This was an early form of news feed advertising that was soon adopted by other companies. Facebook launched Sponsored Stories in the News Feed in January 2012 for the desktop and in March 2012 for mobile devices. We believe LinkedIn is also making good progress with its Sponsored Content native ads. More than 1,000 advertisers are running Sponsored Updates, a single-digit percentage of LinkedIn advertisers on any given day. We believe the Sponsored Update ad load is running at around a mid-single-digit percentage of total pieces of content in the newsfeed. Also, similar to what can been seen at Facebook, Sponsored Updates have higher click-through rates, particularly on mobile, which currently accounts for 2/3 of LinkedIn’s Sponsored Updates revenue. LinkedIn noted that sponsored jobs in the feed have performed particularly well. We believe Sponsored Updates eCPMs are already higher than for LinkedIn’s traditional display ads and pricing should increase more as advertiser demand in the platform begins to build.
  22. 22. 22 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Cross-Device Advertising and Attribution Becoming Critical We expect online advertising to continue to see solid growth in 2014, driven by increasing consumer consumption of digital media through a proliferation of connected devices and rising allocations of ad budgets online. Consumers have greater touchpoints to digital media through the rapid adoption of mobile devices and tablets and higher engagement trends through social media. As consumer behavior and time spent online rapidly shift towards mobile, we expect advertising dollars to follow. We are projecting Internet advertising in the US to grow to $52B in 2014 (+18.3% Y/Y), with a majority of the growth driven by mobile. We project mobile online advertising (Search and Display) to grow 70% Y/Y to $13.4B in 2014. We are projecting total online advertising will be nearly 28% of U.S. ad spending in 2014. Figure 11: J.P. Morgan U.S. Online Advertising Forecast, 2007 – 2016E 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A* 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Display Advertising Banner Ads $4,517 $4,901 $5,076 $5,963 $6,823 $7,757 $8,184 $8,593 $8,936 $9,205 Y/Y growth 23% 9% 4% 17% 14% 14% 6% 5% 4% 3% Rich Media $1,675 $1,618 $1,541 $1,536 $1,301 $1,097 $1,317 $1,448 $1,535 $1,597 Y/Y growth 65% -3% -5% 0% -15% -16% 20% 10% 6% 4% Digital Video $324 $734 $997 $1,406 $1,809 $2,304 $2,834 $3,344 $3,879 $4,422 Y/Y growth 155% 127% 36% 41% 29% 27% 23% 18% 16% 14% Sponsorship $636 $387 $383 $729 $1,111 $845 $743 $758 $773 $789 Y/Y growth 14% -39% -1% 90% 52% -24% -12% 2% 2% 2% Total Display (Desktop) $7,152 $7,640 $7,997 $9,635 $11,044 $12,003 $13,078 $14,143 $15,124 $16,012 Y/Y growth 33% 7% 5% 20% 15% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% % of total 34% 33% 35% 37% 35% 33% 30% 27% 25% 23% % of total growth 41% 22% -45% 25% 20% 15% 13% 12% 10% Search (Desktop) $8,810 $10,528 $10,651 $11,666 $14,757 $16,915 $18,268 $19,546 $20,719 $21,755 Y/Y growth 30% 20% 1% 10% 26% 14.6% 8% 7% 6% 5% % of total 42% 45% 47% 45% 47% 46% 42% 38% 34% 31% % of total growth 46% 77% -16% 54% 45% 18% 16% 14% 12% Mobile N/A* N/A* N/A* $651 $1,587 $3,346 $7,897 $13,426 $19,467 $26,280 Y/Y growth N/A 144% 111% 136% 70% 45% 35% % of total 3% 5% 9% 18% 26% 32% 38% % of total growth 16% 36% 62% 69% 73% 77% Classifieds/ Auctions $3,271 $3,187 $2,262 $2,604 $2,571 $2,414 $2,655 $2,708 $2,735 $2,763 Y/Y growth 7% -3% -29% 15% -1% -6% 10% 2% 1% 1% % of total 15% 14% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% % of total growth 5% -4% 118% -1% -3% 3% 1% 0% 0% Lead Generation/ E-mail $1,972 $2,093 $1,752 $1,484 $1,777 $1,902 $2,054 $2,177 $2,286 $2,377 Y/Y growth 20% 6% -16% -15% 20% 7% 8% 6% 5% 4% % of total 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% % of total growth 7% 5% 43% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% * Note: Breakout of Mobile Advertising begins in 2010 Total Online Advertising $21,206 $23,448 $22,661 $26,041 $31,736 $36,572 $43,949 $52,001 $60,332 $69,188 %Y/Y growth 25.6% 10.6% -3.4% 14.9% 21.9% 15.2% 20.2% 18.3% 16.0% 14.7% Total US Advertising $206,396 $194,781 $163,274 $170,639 $173,433 $178,221 $177,520 $184,890 $186,928 $196,579 %Y/Y growth 0.5% -5.6% -16.2% 4.5% 1.6% 2.8% -0.4% 4.2% 1.1% 5.2% Online as % of Total 10.3% 12.0% 13.9% 15.3% 18.3% 20.5% 24.8% 28.1% 32.3% 35.2% Y/Y change 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 3.0% 2.2% 4.2% 3.4% 4.2% 2.9% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates; Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB); PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC); Magna Global Research.
  23. 23. 23 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Advertising continues to shift online and, as people spend more time on various devices at different times of the day at different locations, advertisers are looking for ways to reach consumers at multiple touchpoints throughout the day. We believe there is less of an emphasis on desktop vs. mobile and a greater focus on the right context. There is less separation of usage times across various devices, as seen in the figure below. A typical Internet user is on several devices simultaneously throughout the day and now second or even third screen experiences are fairly constant. We believe it is critical for advertisers to use new tools to target their advertising effectively and they need to be able to track/measure behavior across devices as users are on multiple devices throughout the day. Several of the largest online advertisers have already begun shifting their products in this direction, particularly the companies for which users are and can be logged in across various devices and services. As shown in Figure 12 below, mobile phone and tablet activity spikes in the evening hours. Figure 12: Share of Daily Traffic by Device 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12:00AM 4:00AM 8:00AM 12:00 PM 4:00 PM 8:00 PM ShareofDailyDeviceTraffic Tablet Mobile Computer Source: comScore. Google launches Estimated Cross-Device Conversions In November 2013, Google launched Estimated Cross-Device Conversions (ECDC) in AdWords as a part of the new Estimated Total Conversions (ETC) product. Other products to come in the ETC series will include phone calls and in-store visits. ECDC is aimed at providing advertisers with data to reflect the impact of an advertiser’s campaigns across various devices. This is a natural progression of Google’s holistic perspective of online advertising that is highlighted in Enhanced Campaigns. Enhanced Campaigns allow advertisers to reach users on all devices through a single AdWords campaign where the context of the user is of greater focus rather than just looking at which device they are using. Through ETC products, Google is creating analytics tools to measure conversions that start with an AdWords click that leads to a transaction completed on any device, on the phone, or in-store. Google estimates ECDC based on aggregate data from users who are signed into the Google accounts across multiple devices, which is used to create an anonymous and aggregate estimate for the number of cross-device conversions attributed to AdWords.
  24. 24. 24 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com ECDC uses last paid click attribution so that the conversions are attributed to the ad that was last clicked before the transaction, lead submission, or other call to action was placed. Google currently calculates ECDC for conversion paths that start from a Google search but the company is looking for ways to capture cross-device conversions from display and other search networks. In early tests, Google reported that the entertainment vertical saw the largest increase of conversions at 12%, travel and technology at 8%, retail at 7%, and local at 2%. Going forward, we expect Google to continue to add additional tools for other conversion types such as phone calls and in-store visits. Early checks with SEMs suggest some advertisers using ECDC are seeing an increase in conversions as high as 33%. Facebook expected to further enable cross-device targeting Facebook is another online platform where users are signed in across multiple devices. Though not yet available, Facebook Exchange (FBX) ads will soon become available in the mobile News Feed, we believe. As a reminder, FBX enables real-time bidding driven by advertisers’ cookie-based data rather than simply targeting through broad demographics or interests. We believe the incorporation of FBX ads into Facebook’s mobile News Feed will be material. For example, if a user visits an online travel site at work on a desktop but leaves before the check-out process, that OTA can re-target the same user on Facebook with additional messages or offers when they check their mobile app later at home. Facebook also offers Custom Audiences, a product that allows advertisers to upload customer information gathered from their offline customers such as emails, user IDs, or phone numbers and target them on Facebook. We are encouraged that Facebook’s ability to leverage third-party data through the Facebook Exchange (FBX) and Custom Audiences can drive improvements in yield. Third-party data through FBX and Custom Audiences pushes Facebook further down the purchase funnel, driving higher ROI and ad spend. We look for further investments and advertiser tools to further enable these actions in 2014. Twitter launches retargeting with Tailored Audiences Twitter rolled out Tailored Audiences (TA) globally in November 2013. TA enables ad retargeting on Twitter’s platform using user behavior on other websites. Since the beta test began in July, Twitter has reported seeing strong results. HubSpot reported seeing a 45% lift in engagement rates, Krossover saw a 74% decrease in cost per customer acquisition (CPA), and New Relic saw 195% higher conversion rates. Ad partners that are helping Twitter with TA include Adara, AdRoll, BlueKai, Chango, DataXu, Dstillery, Lotame, Quantcast, ValueClick, and [x+1]. We believe retargeting will be an effective tool for Twitter’s advertisers given the platform’s advantage on mobile devices and we look for more dynamic cross-device ad targeting tools to come.
  25. 25. 25 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Traditional Media Measurement Tools to Drive Traditional Media Dollars Online We think 2014 is going to be a breakthrough year for traditional media measurement shifting online given YouTube adoption of Nielsen OCR, Nielsen’s likely measurement of Internet radio, and social audience measurement with key partners including Twitter and Facebook. Fragmentation of consumer time and attention across channels, devices, operating systems, and time periods is driving the multi-channel measurement trends and creating a growing need among advertisers and content creators for consistent measurement across mediums. Consumers are more frequently engaging with brands in multiple physical and digital formats before making a purchase decision and brands need help connecting the dots between online and offline touch-points. Additionally, advertisers such as Google, Twitter, and Facebook are working with traditional measurement leaders because they seek objective, third-party sources for complex cross-channel ROI and conversion metrics. Importantly, we think multi-channel measurement trends will accelerate the secular shift of dollars from traditional media including TV and radio towards digital. (Note: Nielsen Holdings is covered by J.P. Morgan’s Business, Information and Education Services analyst Andrew Steinerman.) Nielsen OCR measurement of YouTube could drive material change in TV buyer behavior This November, Google announced that it was letting Nielsen place measurement tags on ads running on YouTube, after resisting the idea of OCR measurement for some time as the company continues to build its own measurement options. Google realizes that its clients want meaningful measurement and brand-friendly metrics, and it now believes that partnering with industry leaders like Nielsen and comScore to offer objective credentialed third-party measurement will enhance advertiser demand. We believe OCR measurement of YouTube will be impactful in increasing the site’s advertising revenue throughout 2014. According to Google’s latest YouTube Insights research from October 2013—which quotes data provided by Nielsen—more consumers already watch YouTube than cable networks and 63% of campaigns targeting 18-34 year olds would benefit from a shift to YouTube from TV given increased potential reach. In fact, YouTube commands higher reach than any major cable network among males 18-24, 18-34, 18-49, and females 18-49 and 25-54. Nielson OCR tags should accelerate the shift of TV dollars online.
  26. 26. 26 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 13: YouTube’s Reach, as Measured by Nielsen % Reach 48% Reach of YouTube CMDY TBSC FX MTV SPK TNT AMC ESPN AEN Males 18-34 48% Reach of YouTube CMDY TBSC FX MTV SPK ESPN USA AMC TNT Males 18-24 47% Reach of YouTube TBSC FX CMDY TNT ESPN SPK DISC AEN AMC Males 18-49 47% TBSC FX TNT Reach of YouTube CMDY DISC ESPN AEN AMC HIST Males 25-54 51% Reach of YouTube TBSC FX AEN TNT LIF TLC FAM E! MTV Females 25-54 49% Reach of YouTube TBSC FX MTV FAM AEN E! TLC TNT DSNY Females 18-49 46% MTV TBSC Reach of YouTube FX FAM E! TLC DSNY AEN CMDY Females 18-34 40% MTV FAM FX TBSC E! Reach of YouTube NICK TLC CMDY AEN Females 18-24 Source: Nielsen, August 2013, Google Insights, J.P. Morgan estimates. Social audience measurement enhancing TV ratings potential Twitter and Nielsen launched an exclusive partnership called Nielsen Twitter TV Rating in October. This partnership will help measure the reach of Tweets across TV programming and we believe it will help demonstrate the value of Twitter as an ad platform, especially for TV advertisers. Nielsen is the first partner to receive Twitter’s reach data and has already published several reports and studies demonstrating Twitter’s relationship with TV. As of 2Q13, Nielsen recorded a 38% increase in Tweets about TV to 263M from 190M in 2Q12 and a 24% increase in Twitter TV authors to 19M vs. 15M in 2Q12. On average, the audience viewing Tweets is 50x greater than the number of authors Tweeting. This means for every 1,000 users Tweeting about a program, over 50,000 users are seeing those Tweets. The relationship between Twitter and TV is also impacting the way we watch TV. Nielsen has found that Twitter drives tune-ins to new programming, but a growing number of people are also Tweeting more about shows they are already watching in real-time. According to Paul Donato, Nielsen’s Chief Research Officer, a spike in TV ratings can increase the volume of Tweets, and a spike in Tweets can lead to an increase in tune-ins. Nielsen reported in August 2013 that Tweets influenced TV ratings of 29% of episodes measured, and TV ratings drove higher Tweet volume for 48% of the episodes measured. We believe the relationship between Twitter and TV will continue to grow, along with the proliferation of mobile devices as a second screen.
  27. 27. 27 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com In November, Twitter announced the expansion of its TV targeting suite called TV Conversation targeting. Now available to advertisers in the U.S. and UK, TV Conversation targeting enables networks and brands to connect with Twitter users that are already engaging in conversations or status updates regarding TV programming. Early partners in this new product include Betfair, Dominos, and British Sky Broadcasting. Twitter plans to roll out this new targeting feature to Brazil, Canada, France, and Spain in the near future. Facebook is also working with Nielsen on TV measurement efforts and has been for years. The companies have partnered—in a privacy-protected way—to provide performance data to advertisers through Nielsen OCR. The large user base and reliability of age and gender data that have helped Facebook attract its own advertisers has also helped Nielsen enhance its OCR product and we expect continued partnership to drive improvements in multi-channel measurement. Over time, the relationship is expanding with a newer focus on helping to improve video-viewing measurement on mobile. Expect streaming audio measurement to similarly impact radio advertising Just as we are seeing a shift in digital video measurement with YouTube, we expect streaming music providers including Pandora to gravitate towards partnerships with traditional measurement providers. Nielsen already took the first step in transforming audio measurement this fall when it completed its acquisition of Arbitron, a leading radio ratings company. Nielsen noted at its Investor Day this past December that it is deeply engaged in developing the technology to measure streaming radio and it is working to fully integrate Nielsen Audio. Further, measuring streaming radio is in line with the company’s mission to measure all media consumption and it realizes that digital audio measurement is key to the future of radio advertising. We believe Nielsen can move quickly in its streaming music measurement goals by leveraging what the company already does in digital video measurement. Still, Nielsen may have work to do in encouraging common digital audio metrics within the radio industry, which could take some time. Over the last 1-2 years, as a part of Pandora’s multi-stage process to compete on an even playing field with traditional broadcast radio, the company has: 1) secured measurement of its service by Triton Digital; 2) become integrated into the two largest radio buy-side ad platforms, which represent ~80% of the roughly $15B annual broadcast radio ad spend opportunity; 3) continued to grow its U.S. radio market share to 8.6%; 4) expanded its local sales force of experienced local radio ad sales professionals; and 5) started to enhance targeting capabilities by cross-referencing user-provided and third-party demographic data. One of the few points of friction that still remains for some potential advertising clients—likely some of the more traditional local radio ad buyers—is that Pandora has not yet been measured by Arbitron (now Nielson Audio), the leader in U.S. radio ratings. While Triton measurements are already displayed in a format that is comparable to Nielson Audio’s AQH method, we believe that a true apples-to-apples comparison by a single measurement provider and leader in its field may push some remaining advertisers over the hurdle in embracing Pandora as a compelling advertising medium. We expect to see increased advertiser demand when Nielsen Audio commences its anticipated streaming radio measurement, and are confident that Pandora’s ability to deliver attractive ROIs will be a driver of advertising sell-through rate and pricing over time.
  28. 28. 28 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Last Mile Drives Further Online/Offline Retail Convergence After ~18 years, eCommerce in the US is ~10% of US retail (ex-autos and food establishments) and while categories such as books and consumer electronics are now highly penetrated online, we believe several large categories remain relatively underpenetrated by eCommerce, primarily due to consumer need for immediacy and somewhat prohibitive shipping costs. Advances in the Last Mile could accelerate this penetration. Figure 14: JPM US eCommerce Model $ in millions 2011A 2012A 1Q13A 2Q13A 3Q13A 4Q13E 2013E 1Q14E 2Q14E 3Q14E 4Q14E 2014E 2015E Total Retail Spend 4,647,648 4,354,610 1,055,907 1,138,866 1,136,583 1,214,254 4,545,610 1,108,702 1,195,809 1,193,412 1,274,966 4,772,890 4,963,806 Y/Y Growth 7.9% -6.3% 2.6% 4.5% 5.4% 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% Q/Q Growth -8.7% 7.9% -0.2% 6.8% -8.7% 7.9% -0.2% 6.8% Motor vehicle and parts dealers 826,299 887,171 225,224 250,120 250,701 Gasoline stations 526,196 548,775 130,777 141,629 142,912 Food services and drinking places 493,501 530,335 132,210 141,777 138,774 Adj. Retail Spend (ex autos, gas, and food) 2,801,652 2,388,329 567,696 605,340 604,196 703,493 2,480,725 592,107 630,764 628,968 731,633 2,583,472 2,686,811 Y/Y Growth 5.8% -14.8% 2.0% 3.8% 5.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% Q/Q Growth -15.7% 6.6% -0.2% 16.4% -15.8% 6.5% -0.3% 16.3% % of Total Retail 60.3% 54.8% 53.8% 53.2% 53.2% 57.9% 54.6% 53.4% 52.7% 52.7% 57.4% 54.1% 54.1% E-commerce Spend 194,691 225,609 58,132 60,176 61,417 83,244 262,969 67,433 69,503 70,937 96,147 304,020 346,542 Y/Y Growth 15.2% 15.9% 15.6% 18.3% 17.3% 15.5% 16.6% 16.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.6% 14.0% Q/Q Growth -19.3% 3.5% 2.1% 35.5% -19.0% 3.1% 2.1% 35.5% E-commerce as % of Adjusted Retail 6.9% 9.4% 10.2% 9.9% 10.2% 11.8% 10.6% 11.4% 11.0% 11.3% 13.1% 11.8% 12.9% Y/Y Chg (bp) 57 bp 250 bp 120 bp 121 bp 107 bp 113 bp 115 bp 115 bp 108 bp 111 bp 131 bp 117 bp 113 bp Source: US Department of Commerce and J.P. Morgan estimates. We believe the lines between online and offline retail are rapidly blurring, driven by improvements in mobile, offline product discoverability, the supply chain, and shipping. While online retail has historically thrived in part due to selection, convenience, and sometimes pricing advantages, offline retail has held immediacy of product advantage over online retailers. However, we believe online and offline retail models are converging. According to the US Census, 75% of all retail spending occurs 15 miles from home. As a result, pure-play online retailers such as Amazon are increasingly looking to penetrate more immediate or time-sensitive categories such as consumables (perishable and non- perishable) by building distribution centers closer to the consumer and by improving shipping efficiencies. On the other hand, offline retailers that have an eCommerce presence are increasingly looking to leverage their local store locations to provide ship- to-store and ship-from-store availability of products through investments and innovations in eCommerce technologies that offer greater discoverability of local store inventory through an online interface (mobile or desktop). We refer to this convergence of online and offline retail as the War for the Last Mile. We expect commerce convergence to follow a multi-year timeline as various categories shift more online and successive generations become more comfortable buying products like perishables and apparel online. We think additional innovations and efficiencies in supply chain/shipping likely also need to occur in order for high-shipping-cost items to move online.
  29. 29. 29 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 15: Large Online Local Opportunity in Retail Source: US Census Bureau, Forrester Research We believe improvements in discoverability of local store inventory as well as same-day shipping could significantly accelerate the growth of eCommerce in categories that were once considered more immune to online penetration. In Table 1 below, we look at 2012 US retail sales (excluding autos, parts, food services, and drinking places) in order to determine the size and categories of businesses potentially affected by Last Mile eCommerce. We believe last Mile eCommerce could influence ~$2T in US retail sales (nearly 60% of total retail) over the long term, with General Merchandise ($631B), Grocery ($568B in 2012), Health & Personal ($275B), Electronics ($99B), and Office Supplies ($38B) representing some of the primary categories affected. ~40% of retail is online- influenced 75% of retail is local Large online local opportunity
  30. 30. 30 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Table 1: Industries with Highest Potential for Immediacy Demand Type of Business $ in millions Immediacy? (Y/N) % of Total Furniture and home furnishings stores $95,628 N 2.8% Electronics and appliance stores $99,190 Y 2.9% Building mat. and garden equip. and supplies dealers $294,224 Building mat. and supplies dealers $248,499 N 7.2% Paint and wallpaper stores $9,107 Y 0.3% Hardware stores $21,869 Y 0.6% Food and beverage stores $634,304 Grocery stores $568,177 Y 16.4% Beer, wine, and liquor stores $44,987 Y Health and personal care stores $274,867 Y 7.9% Gasoline stations $546,913 N 15.8% Clothing and clothing access. stores $239,224 Y 6.9% Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores $90,107 Y 2.6% General merchandise stores $631,808 Department stores (excl.L.D) $182,800 Y 5.3% Other general merchandise stores $449,008 Y 12.9% Miscellaneous store retailers $122,211 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores $38,063 Y 1.1% Used merchandise stores $14,144 Y 0.4% Nonstore retailers $439,709 N 12.7% Potential Last Mile Sales $2,031,543 58.6% Retail sales (excl. autos and parts dealers, food and drinking places) $3,468,185 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, U.S. Department of Commerce. As mentioned earlier, the majority of retail spend occurs close to home and with 40% of retail influenced by online, it’s clear why online and offline commerce models are converging, creating a new battleground for commerce. We think mobile has been a significant accelerator of this trend, but there are other factors as well. Sales Taxes Loophole Ending  While we recognize that tax is only one part of the reason that a consumer may shop online (whether it is a Prime membership, the convenience, or better product prices), the ongoing tax changes by states are worth noting. As the tax headwind erodes, traditional retailers have been addressing multi-channel strategies and product and shipping pricing gaps to further level the playing field. The focus on taxes seems to be shifting to a competition in same-day delivery, with WMT the best-positioned retailer to compete with 4,000+ locations in the U.S. AMZN has reached tax agreements with many states in an effort to push out tax collection a bit further and also build more warehouses closer to consumers and major metros.  In late 2012, California, Texas, and Pennsylvania began collecting sales taxes from online retailers. In 2013, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia and Arizona also began collecting sales tax at different points throughout the year, but all by November 1st in time for the holiday season.
  31. 31. 31 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 16: AMZN/Online Sales Tax by State 9.4% 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.9% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Tennessee Washington New York California Arizona Kansas Texas Nevada South Carolina Indiana New Jersey Pennsylvania Connecticut Massachusetts Kentucky North Dakota Virginia Pre-2013 2013 Post-2013 Source: Sales Tax Clearinghouse.  Since many offline retail coverage companies have large exposure to California and Texas, 2012 was a watershed year for reducing the online tax headwind. California and Texas both began collecting taxes in 2012, which benefitted COST and VSI the most given their 44.1% and 37.1% respective exposures to states that collected sales tax in 2012 or earlier. Last year SPLS and BBBY stood to benefit the most with 18.4% and 18.0% of their store base, respectively, in states that began collecting online sales tax.  In summary, traditional retail companies had ~22% of their stores in states that currently collect online sales tax. More states (VA, MA, CT, and AZ) began collection of sales tax in 2013, which increased the average percentage of J.P. Morgan coverage retailers’ store bases in states that collect online sales tax to 31%. The Marketplace Fairness Act passed mid-year in the Senate, but may face tougher opposition in the House. The bill would give 45 states and D.C. the ability to enforce collection of sales taxes on online purchases. By the end of 2013, 13 states will collect sales tax from AMZN and other online retailers, and at least four other states have announced agreements with AMZN to begin collecting sales tax in 2014 or later.
  32. 32. 32 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Figure 17: Percentage of Each Company’s Stores in States Collecting Sales Tax from AMZN According to Effective Date, Ranked by 2013 36.1% 32.5% 37.1% 25.2% 23.0% 44.1% 24.2% 36.9% 32.1% 34.1% 34.4% 34.4% 28.6% 17.7% 26.7% 32.4% 11.5% 26.4% 33.1% 35.4% 34.4% 18.4% 18.0% 14.8% 14.6% 13.9% 13.2% 12.5% 12.1% 11.7% 11.5% 11.3% 11.3% 10.6% 10.2% 9.4% 8.8% 8.7% 8.5% 6.0% 4.1% 3.9% 10.7% 12.7% 10.4% 11.7% 10.0% 7.3% 8.9% 9.3% 8.7% 8.2% 8.6% 8.6% 12.2% 12.7% 6.0% 11.1% 18.8% 10.1% 12.8% 8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% SPLS BBBY VSI DKS PETM COST HD RSH GNC TGT BBY BBY LOW AAP OMX AZO HGG WMT TSCO ORLY ODP Taxable States (as of Dec 31st, 2012) Future Taxable States (after Dec 31st, 2013) Future Taxable States (after Dec 31st, 2013) Source: Sales Tax Clearinghouse (STC). Amazon Continues to Shrink Distance to Its Customers Amazon continues to invest in its fulfillment center footprint even in North America where the company has been operating for several years. Table 2 below highlights the growth in Amazon’s North America and international fulfillment/warehouse square footage over time. Table 2: Amazon's Fulfillment Center Buildout Square feet, in 000's 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fulfillment and Warehouse Ops North America 7,560 8,434 8,905 11,973 11,848 15,761 26,364 35,600 Y/Y Change 12% 6% 34% -1% 33% 67% 35% International 2,620 3,419 4,729 5,321 5,739 10,339 17,690 30,783 Y/Y Change 30% 38% 13% 8% 80% 71% 74% Total 10,180 11,853 13,634 17,294 17,587 26,100 44,054 66,383 Y/Y Change 16% 15% 27% 2% 48% 69% 51% Source: Company reports. While growth in overall demand (first-party and third-party FBA) has driven some of the fulfillment center growth, we also believe the company is building fulfillment centers closer to its retail customers. We think the roll-out of sales taxes in several states (such as California) has driven some of this build-out as Amazon no longer needs to optimize its fulfillment center footprint to minimize consumption or state sales taxes. We also think that the company is witnessing good leverage in shipping costs as a result of building fulfillment centers closer to customers and note that shipping loss as a % of revenue has declined 6% Y/Y in 1Q13.
  33. 33. 33 North America Equity Research 09 January 2014 Doug Anmuth (1-212) 622-6571 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com Offline Retailers Increasingly Leveraging Store Locations for eCommerce Fulfillment We think offline retailers are increasingly leveraging their store assets to fulfill eCommerce transactions by offering ship-to-store and ship-from-store availability. For example, 40% of Best Buy’s online sales are picked up in stores and over 50% of Lowe’s online sales are picked up in stores. Figure 18 below demonstrates some of the key eCommerce capabilities—such as ship to/from store and Buy Online Pick Up in Store (BOPUS)—currently available through several offline retailers. As shown in the figure, 11/18 offline retailers offered Buy Online, Pick Up in Store, while 7/18 offered Ship to Store availability. 4/18 stores offered ship to store availability, though we think this number is likely to grow over time, driven by offline retail investments in technology and greater consumer awareness. As eCommerce becomes an increasingly important channel for offline retailers, we expect physical stores to play a more crucial role in driving eCommerce sales and the last mile of delivery. We think online marketplaces such as eBay, Google, and Groupon are also enabling offline retailers with technology and online marketing solutions, which help surface offline retail inventory to online shoppers, helping level the playing field with pure-play online retailers such as Amazon. Figure 18: Capabilities by Retailer W alm art Target Hom e Depot Lowe's Staples BestBuy OfficeDepot Bed Bath & Beyond Dick'sSporting Goods Radioshack OfficeM ax Hhgregg G NC Costco PetSm art Vitam in ShoppeW illiam s Sonom a TractorSupply BOPUS*                   Ship to store                   Ship from store                   QR Codes                   Mobile Site                   Mobile App                   Extended online SKUs                   Testing mobile checkout                   Free shipping** available                   Wifi available in stores                   Testing same-day delivery                   Price match Amazon.com                   Prepaid returns of online purchases by mail                   Free returns of online purchases in store                   Product/industry research on website                   Online sales included in comp?                   Total 14 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 *BOPUS: Buy online, pick up in store; includes reserve online, pick up in store **with minimum purchase, cutomer loyalty program, through ShopRunner, or promotional free shipping  :Only BBBY has free ship all the time on all items; launched in July 2012 DKS only has free returns on shoes Source: Company data.

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