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You don't need another hero app - you need one that survives the Thunderdome - Jfokus2015

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Keynote at JFokus 2015 in Stockholm, Sweden talking about the state of apps and what to focus on to survive the coming changes in user behaviour.

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You don't need another hero app - you need one that survives the Thunderdome - Jfokus2015

  1. 1. Chris Heilmann (@codepo8) - JFokus, Stockholm, February 2015 YOU DON'T NEED ANOTHER HERO APP. YOU NEED ONE THAT SURVIVES THE THUNDERDOME
  2. 2. @codepo8 Chris Heilmann
  3. 3. CURIOUS FACT ABOUT STOCKHOLM: T-BANA ICY, SLUSHY WILDERNESS
  4. 4. ASKING FOR DIRECTIONS CAN BE FUN…
  5. 5. SERIOUSLY, THOUGH…
  6. 6. LET’S TALK APPS.
  7. 7. OH THE THINGS APPS CAN DO…
  8. 8. GET GOING! APPS ARE THE THING!
  9. 9. SOME PLATFORM STATS…
  10. 10. IOS OWNS THE HIGH-END SPACE ANDROID IS THE WINNER IN NUMBERS AND WORLD-WIDE REACH. DEVELOPERS SHOW INTEREST IN WINDOWS MOBILE. OTHER PLATFORMS SHARE A SMALL PERCENTAGE AND LOVE FROM ENTHUSIASTS
  11. 11. IDC: Smartphone OS Market Share, Q2 2014 255 MILLION UNITS, 85% OF THE MARKET.
  12. 12. IDC: Smartphone OS Market Share, Q2 2014 18,796 ! Distinct devices (11,868 the year before)
  13. 13. GET RICH WITH APPS! https://www.flickr.com/photos/41664681@N00/5460039384
  14. 14. Vision Mobile, Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation App revenue Haves 12% Strugglers 19% Poverty stricken 22% Have nothings 47% < $100 $100 … $1000 $1000 … $10,000 $10,000 … APP REVENUES…
  15. 15. MOST APPS ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A BUSINESS. 50% OF IOS AND 64% OF ANDROID APPS < $500 EACHMONTH
  16. 16. BUT SURELY, GAMES ARE DIFFERENT? 33% OF DEVELOPERS CREATE GAMES. 57% MAKE < $500 EACH MONTH
  17. 17. Vision Mobile, Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 Targets consumers Targets professionals Targets enterprise TARGET MARKETS
  18. 18. Vision Mobile, Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation ENTERPRISE: ! 2× MORE LIKELY TO MAKE < $5000/MONTH 3× MORE LIKELY TO MAKE < $25000/MONTH
  19. 19. APP TYPES AND USE… Guardian - Women taking the lead when it comes to mobile 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 Health Entertainment Lifestyle Social networking Games Men Women
  20. 20. LOST IN THE APP STORE… Guardian - Women taking the lead when it comes to mobile https://www.adjust.com/assets/downloads/the-undead-app-store.pdf
  21. 21. THE RUSH IS OVER… http://qz.com/253618/most-smartphone-users-download-zero-apps-per-month/ https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/8/comScore-s-US-Mobile-App-Report-Available-for-Download
  22. 22. IT all just works!
  23. 23. http://qz.com/253527/these-are-the-25-most-popular-mobile-apps-in-america/ Facebook is by far the top app, with 115.4 million unique visitors in June. With 160 million total US app users, that’s 72% penetration. “
  24. 24. Google is the top mobile app publisher. Its apps represent nos. 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 16.“ http://qz.com/253527/these-are-the-25-most-popular-mobile-apps-in-america/
  25. 25. http://qz.com/253527/these-are-the-25-most-popular-mobile-apps-in-america/ There are no games in the top 25. This is not a mistake: … (games are) closer to 10 million unique visitors—probably because games tend to spike in popularity and then decline. “
  26. 26. THE APP BUBBLE IS BURSTING… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrcAPan028Y
  27. 27. REASONS?
  28. 28. OS COMPLEXITY…
  29. 29. http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?1937 Today's new iPad Air 2 experience consists of 23 or more steps and no less than three iCloud services (iCloud, iCloud Drive, & iCloud Keychain).
  30. 30. http://www.lukew.com/ff/entry.asp?1937 In contrast, today's new Android Nexus experience consists of only 8 steps but with a mandatory 234MB update.
  31. 31. A LOT OF APP FUNCTIONALITY IS NOW PART OF THE OS AND COVERS MOST NEEDS.
  32. 32. NEEDY APPS AND FREEMIUM ANNOYANCES…
  33. 33. THINGS TO COME…
  34. 34. NEW FORM FACTORS SMART * IOT
  35. 35. THERE IS NO SCREEN, ONLY DATA AND MESSAGES GOING BACK AND FORTH…
  36. 36. GROWTH HAPPENS IN EMERGING MARKETS… IDC: Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by Region
  37. 37. DAY TO DAY COMPUTING IS STILL NOT ABOUT FLYING CARS…
  38. 38. CONNECTIVITY IS NOT A BINARY STATE…
  39. 39. DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
  40. 40. LET’S AIM TO BUILD SOLID FOUNDATIONS CONSISTING OF SMALL BITS OF WORKING CODE.
  41. 41. Vision Mobile, Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation 47% OF IOS AND 42% OF ANDROID DEVELOPERS DON’T USE THE NATIVE LANGUAGE OF THE OS
  42. 42. Vision Mobile, Developer Economics Q3 2014: State of the Developer Nation Other 27 C# 23 Objective-C 24 C/C++ 26 Java (Android) 38 HTML5 42 LANGUAGES USED IN MOBILE APPS…
  43. 43. THE SWEET SPOT IS IN BETWEEN NATIVE AND THE WEB. EACH HAS POWERS THE OTHER DOESN’T.
  44. 44. BUILD SOLUTIONS THAT… Do work offline Do interact with the platform (payment, login) Don’t ask for more than you need. Do use the technology that delivers the best result (native controls, web views for simple data maintenance) have atomic updates represent a service, not an app for a certain platform or form factor. Things move fast.
  45. 45. WE HAVE THE TOOLS EVEN OUTSIDE NATIVE PLATFORMS
  46. 46. PERFORMANCE
  47. 47. WEBSITE OBESITY IS NOT UNCOMMON…
  48. 48. HOW SLOW ARE WE? http://www.webpagetest.org/
  49. 49. HOW SLOW ARE WE? http://www.webpagetest.org/
  50. 50. AH, BUT THERE IS A MOBILE VESION! http://www.webpagetest.org/
  51. 51. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEs2jgZBaQA PERFORMANCE TOOLS AND TESTING…
  52. 52. BROWSERS ARE CONSUMPTION AND CREATION TOOLS.
  53. 53. BROWSERS ARE EMULATORS AND REMOTE DEBUGGERS OF CONNECTED DEVICES.
  54. 54. WEBRTC, WEBGL, WEB AUDIO AND MANY MORE THINGS ARE POINTING TO A HIGH FIDELITY WEB…
  55. 55. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uQMl7mFB6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmZ9XcTpMS4 TOWARDS AN OFFLINE WEB: SERVICEWORKER
  56. 56. WEB COMPONENTS AND SHADOW DOM
  57. 57. http://www.futureinsights.com/home/the-state-of-the-componentised-web.html
  58. 58. Hating JavaScript is like hating the Internet. The Internet is a cobweb of different technologies cobbled together with duct tape, string and chewing gum. It's not elegantly designed in any way, because it's more of a growing organism than it is a machine constructed with intent. “ http://www.quora.com/Why-is-JavaScript-the-only-client-side-language-available/answer/Mattias-Petter-Johansson Mattias Petter Johansson, Spotify TODAY’S TECH ISN’T GOING AWAY…
  59. 59. If you build a web app today, it will run in browsers 10 years from now. Good luck trying the same with your favorite mobile OS (excluding Firefox OS). “ http://paulbakaus.com/2014/08/26/the-web-is-built-to-last/ Paul Bakaus, Google (ex. Zynga) IT IS BUILT TO LAST!
  60. 60. Chris Heilmann christianheilmann.com @codepo8 Thank you!

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