NZC - Alexander

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NZC - Alexander

  1. 1. Current and near-term emissions impacts of plug-in electric vehicles Marcus Alexander, EPRI Manager, Vehicle Systems Analysis Net Zero Cities October 23, 2013
  2. 2. • Background • Recent emission trends • Future potential • Wrap-up © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. • Background • Recent emission trends • Future potential • Wrap-up © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities? • From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives: – Vehicle downscaling – Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing – Mass transit – Freight delivery efficiency © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities? • From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives: – Vehicle downscaling – Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing – Mass transit – Freight delivery efficiency • From an energy standpoint, electrification decouples energy generation from energy use, allowing: – Diversification – Fleet emissions reductions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities • This discussion will focus on personal cars • It’s important to remember that for these, the primary competition is between electricity and gasoline • The analysis looks at ‘conventional’ electricity as a starting point © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. • Background • Recent emission trends • Future potential • Wrap-up © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. Recent emissions trends • Grid emissions of criteria pollutants like NOx and SO2 have decreased rapidly as regulations have tightened. • Grid emissions of CO2 have decreased, but not as rapidly. • It is unclear what will happen as explicit CO2 regulations are implemented, but there is significant potential for reductions. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. Generation sources (National) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
  10. 10. SO2 emissions reductions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
  11. 11. NOx emissions reductions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
  12. 12. CO2 emissions reductions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
  13. 13. CO2 emissions reductions 50 mpg © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
  14. 14. Generation sources (NW-Central) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
  15. 15. • Background • Recent emission trends • Future potential • Wrap-up © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
  16. 16. Future potential • Current policy will significantly decrease NOx emissions, SO2 emissions, and other emissions not described above. • CO2 emissions are expected to decrease under current policy. • There is the potential for significant CO2 reductions under different policy scenarios. © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
  17. 17. Projected SO2 emissions (preliminary) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
  18. 18. Projected NOx emissions (preliminary) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
  19. 19. Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
  20. 20. Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary) 50 mpg © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
  21. 21. • Background • Aggregation levels • Recent emission trends • Future potential • Wrap-up © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
  22. 22. Wrap-up Marcus Alexander malexander@epri.com © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
  23. 23. Backup: Non-road applications © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
  24. 24. EPRI Non-road Electric Transportation Program Airports Warehouses – Ground support – Forklifts equipment – Truck – Ground power refrigeration units Mining Truck Stops – EV’s and Conveyers – Shore Power Rail – On-board power – Locomotives, Seaports cranes – Cranes Agriculture – All terrain vehicles – Cargo handling – Tractors – Ships/Dredges Construction © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
  25. 25. Backup: Aggregation levels © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
  26. 26. Aggregation levels • Looking at statewide emissions doesn’t work well; there is too much sharing of electricity between states. • National emissions are generally the best way to look at trends, but doesn’t provide regional detail, which can be quite interesting. • For its REGEN model, EPRI created a set of region definitions that group states into blocks that represent electricity flows © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 26
  27. 27. State emissions intensity © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 27
  28. 28. State electricity trade © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 28
  29. 29. REGEN regions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 29
  30. 30. REGEN regions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 30
  31. 31. Backup: 2 decades of emissions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
  32. 32. SOx © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 32
  33. 33. NOx © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 33
  34. 34. CO2 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 34
  35. 35. Backup: Net emissions and air quality changes (from 2007 study) © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 35
  36. 36. Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs (2030 modeling) 100,000 Power Plant Emissions • Emissions under caps (SO2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged 0 -50,000 Emissions (tons) • Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard) 50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 -250,000 Vehicle Emissions -300,000 • NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all decrease • Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle tailpipe • Reduction in refinery and related emissions © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. -350,000 -400,000 SOx NOx VOC PM On-Road Vehicle -7,716 -236,292 -234,342 -9,255 Refinery and Other Stationary -23,549 -20,076 -17,804 -3,282 0 -1,293 -103,323 -101 -16,284 58,916 0 49,434 -47,549 -198,745 -355,469 36,796 Distributed Upstream Power Plant 36
  37. 37. Air quality impacts of PEVs Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) PHEV Case – Base Case © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 37
  38. 38. PHEVs Improve Overall Air & Water Quality Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury Change in U.S. Deposition Flux (Units Specified Below) 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 -250,000 Sulfate (ton) Nitrate (ton) Nitrogen (ton N) Mercury (g) Benefit above Threshold -41,472 -45,490 -32,413 -146,370 Benefit below Threshold -12,416 -20,995 -22,784 -90,202 Disbenefit above Threshold 23,211 1,581 0 19,712 Disbenefit below Threshold 4,562 3,396 233 28,693 -26,114 -61,508 -54,963 -188,166 © 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 38

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