Updated outbreak assessment on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: Europe, America and the Middle East. By the DEFRA, Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring.

1. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Animal & Plant Health Agency
Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring
1
Updated Outbreak Assessment
Update on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza:
Europe, America and the Middle East
28th
January 2015 Ref: VITT/1200 HPAI Europe, America and Middle East
Disease Report
Germany has reported three further outbreaks of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza
(HPAI), since the last Preliminary Outbreak Assessment on the 23rd
December 2014. One
was in captive birds at Rostock Zoo (Meklenberg Western Pommerania), in a White Stork
(Ciconia ciconia). Disease control measures, including culling 39 birds, have taken place
and epidemiological
investigations are underway
(OIE, 2015). The other two
outbreaks were reported in
January on backyard
holdings of ~ 200 birds in
one case and ~100 birds in
the second, also in
Meklenberg Western
Pommerania. Disease
control measures are in
place. In addition, the
Authorities have also
reported more H5N8-
infected wild birds (both
hunted and found dead): a
gull (unspecified species) in Lower Saxony (where outbreaks in turkeys and ducks were
reported in December 2014) and a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) in Thuringia region (see
map).
Bulgaria has reported a case of H5N1 HPAI in a wild bird (Dalmatian pelican, Pelicanus
crispus) found dead in Burgas region. This is the first report of H5N1 HPAI in the European
Union since 2010 (Reid et al. 2011). The authorities have implemented control measures
in line with Commission Decision 2006/563/EC, which specifically applies to H5N1 HPAI in
wild birds and no other subtype, (OIE, 2015a). Sequence confirmation is expected soon to
determine if this is related to the Central Asian strains circulating in wild birds and
associated with the incursion in 2010.

2. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Animal & Plant Health Agency
Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring
2
Israel and Palestine have
reported further cases of H5N1
HPAI in poultry (H5 only confirmed
in Palestine): two outbreaks in
Haifa in commercial poultry
(turkeys and broiler grandparents)
and in West Bank, two outbreaks
in commercial turkeys and layer
hens (OIE 2015b and c). Disease
control measures are in place.
Sequence confirmation is expected
soon to determine if this is a
poultry-adapted strain found in this
region previously.
USA continues to report avian influenza. The first H5N8 HPAI outbreak in commercial
birds (domestic turkeys) has been reported in California. This follows the reports of an
outbreak of H5N8 HPAI in a backyard flock in Oregon and one of H5N2 HPAI in backyard
poultry in Washington State as well as four wild bird cases of H5N8 HPAI – two in
California, (a gadwall Anas strepora, and a green winged teal Anas carolinensis), one in
Utah (American wigeon, Anas americana) and one in Idaho (mallard, Anas platyrhynchos).
In addition, as part of enhanced surveillance activities, a case of H5N1 HPAI has also
been reported in a green winged
teal in Washington State. This is
the first time H5N1 HPAI has
been reported in the USA but
can be clearly differentiated from
other contemporary H5N1 HPAI
viruses since genetic analysis
has revealed that this virus is a
re-assortant virus between the
Eurasian lineage H5 gene of the
H5N8 HPAI virus already
identified in the USA and the N1
gene of North American LPAI
wild bird lineage. This is
suggestive that the introduction of the Eurasian H5N8 virus into the Pacific flyway in late
2014 has resulted in mixing with North American lineage viruses leading to the emergence
of H5N2 HPAI and now H5N1 HPAI viruses in USA and Canada (OIE, 2015d).

3. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Animal & Plant Health Agency
Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring
3
Situation Assessment
There has been a considerable increase globally in the frequency of avian influenza
outbreaks and reports of infected wild birds. Although we have reported on the outbreaks
which are of most concern to the UK (in Europe or other trade partners), Asia has also
reported many additional affected poultry holdings. For example, Japan has reported 12
outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI; Taiwan has reported over 420 outbreaks of H5N2 HPAI, H5N3
HPAI and H5N8 HPAI in the space of a month. On another note, the human cases of avian
influenza H7N9 in China have started to increase again, for the third year in a row;
including for the first time a new human case outside of Asia in a Canadian who had
recently returned home after travelling to China. Nigeria has reported 24 outbreaks of
H5N1 HPAI in poultry in the north and south of the country after an absence of seven
years.
The outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI reported in 2014 in the four European Union Member States
including the UK, have all largely been resolved. Restrictions have now been lifted and no
further spread as a direct contact with these outbreaks has been reported. Extensive
epidemiological investigations in all four member states has failed to show any direct links
between all the premises and therefore the indirect contact with wild birds is the most likely
explanation. Fomite
transmission from
environments contaminated
with wild bird faeces into
poultry holdings seems likely.
The continued reports from
Germany means we cannot
be complacent and we
consider that at the present
time the risk level has
increased from low to low-
medium of another
introduction occurring in the
UK. The impact that incursion will have will depend on the biosecurity of poultry farms. The
case in Bulgaria reminds us that H5N1 HPAI is still circulating and will cause significant
problems for poultry with potential for human infection in rare circumstances. The map
above indicates, the distribution in Europe for the two different viruses (H5N8 and H5N1)
fall within two distinct flyways for waterbirds and shorebirds (Taken from JNCC report
(Boere et al., 2006). The eight broad flyways of waders/shorebirds. Source: International
Wader Study Group). Nevertheless the co-circulation of multiple lineages and subtypes of
H5 HPAI will likely result in further genetic diversity within this group of viruses with
unknown implications for maintenance and spread.

4. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Animal & Plant Health Agency
Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring
4
Conclusion
The continuing outbreaks of HPAI occurring across the EU, their geospatial characteristics
and timelines make it likely the source of infection is through indirect contact with infected
wild birds. This means the likelihood of the UK having another outbreak is increased for
the upcoming period. There is no significant increase in risk as a direct result of the
disease in Germany, Bulgaria, the Middle East or the USA as there has been no trade
recently, but vigilance for our poultry keepers and any attending veterinarians should
continue to be enhanced.
We will continue to report on the situation. We would like to remind all poultry keepers to
maintain high standards of biosecurity and report any suspect clinical signs promptly. For
reports of wild birds (any number of swans, ducks and geese or >5 other birds) found dead
by the public, please notify the Defra helpline on 03459 33 55 77 and see the Gov.uk
website for more information: https://www.gov.uk/avian-influenza-bird-flu
Authors
Jonathan Smith
Professor Ian Brown
Dr Helen Roberts
References
Boere, G.C., Galbraith, C.A. & Stroud, D.A. (eds). 2006. Waterbirds around the world. The
Stationery Office, Edinburgh, UK. 960 pp. http://www.jncc.gov.uk/worldwaterbirds/
OIE (2015) Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Germany: Follow-up Report No. 7 (26/01/2015)
Reference 17066
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_fup_0000017066_20150126_171956.pdf
OIE (2015a) Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Bulgaria: Immediate Notification (28/01/2015)
Reference 17083
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_imm_0000017083_20150128_162635.pdf
OIE (2015b) Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Israel: Follow-up Report No.1 (Reference OIE:
17059, Report Date: 26/01/2015)
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_fup_0000017059_20150126_160014.pdf
OIE (2015c) Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Palestine: Follow-up Report No.1 (Reference
OIE: 17035, Report Date: 24/01/2015)
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_fup_0000017035_20150126_154941.pdf
OIE (2015d) Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in USA: Follow-up Report No.5 (Reference OIE:
1706, Report Date: 25/01/2015)
http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_fup_0000017060_20150126_154517.pdf

5. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Animal & Plant Health Agency
Veterinary & Science Policy Advice Team - International Disease Monitoring
5
Reid, S.M., Shell, W., Barboi, G., Onita, I., Turcitu, M., Cioranu, R., Marinova-Petkova, A.,
Goujgoulova, R., Webby, R., Webster, R., Russell, C., Slomka, M., Hanna, A., Banks, J.,
Alton, B., Barrass, L., Irvine R.M., and Brown, I.H., (2011) First reported incursion of highly
pathogenic notifiable avian influenza A H5N1 viruses from clade 2.3.2 into European poultry.
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 58 (1) 76-78.
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