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AI and Machine Learning for the Lean Start Up

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How startups can leverage machine learning and AI.

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AI and Machine Learning for the Lean Start Up

  1. 1. calculation | consulting artificial intelligence (TM) c|c (TM) charles@calculationconsulting.com
  2. 2. calculation|consulting Artificial Intelligence (TM) charles@calculationconsulting.com
  3. 3. calculation | consulting data science leadership Who Are We? c|c (TM) Dr. Charles H. Martin, PhD University of Chicago, Chemical Physics NSF Fellow in Theoretical Chemistry Over 20 years experience in Applied Machine Learning (ML) and AI Developed ML algos for Demand Media; the first $1B IPO since Google Lean Start Ups: Aardvark (acquired by Google), Swoop, … Internet Giants: eHow, eBay, GoDaddy, … Wall Street: BlackRock, GLG, … Fortune 500: Big Pharma, Telecom, … www.calculationconsulting.com charles@calculationconsulting.com (TM) 3
  4. 4. the third wave: of AI companies c|c (TM) (TM) 4 calculation | consulting data science leadership What is: an AI Startup? 2010 2014 2018
  5. 5. c|c (TM) Overview: ML for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 5 1. Lean vs Fat: Aardvark vs eHow 2. ML Engineering Models 3. Enterprise AI 4. Lessons from Consulting 5. Q&A
  6. 6. c|c (TM) Your funding environment informs your process Startup Models: Lean or Fat ? calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 6 2008 Market crashed Money is tight Lean startup time 2018 Market booming Lots of $1B companies More funding ; ambitious
  7. 7. c|c (TM) Your funding environment informs your process Part 1: Lean vs Fat Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 7 Aardvark ex-Googlers prototype lean startup Acquired fast ex-Chairman, MySpace Huge funding $1B Unicorn enabled by AI
  8. 8. c|c (TM) How you implement AI depends on your funding model Startup Models: Lean or Fat ? calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 8 2010 Google bought Aardvark for $50 Million Machine learning enabled social search engine Featured in Lean Start Up
  9. 9. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 9 Lean Startup: Aardvark / featured lean startup acquired by Google ($50M)
  10. 10. c|c (TM) eHow / Demand Media first $1B IPO since Google From Startup to IPO: Demand Media calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 10
  11. 11. c|c (TM) eHow / Demand Media first $1B IPO since Google From Startup to IPO: Demand Media calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 11 2011 Rich Rosenblatt’s Yacht ‘The AdSense’ Bad press for Google ‘
  12. 12. c|c (TM) eHow ML Algos caused Google Panda From Startup to IPO: Demand Media calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 12 • eHow ML algos soared • Google adapted (Panda) • Search changed forever IPO Panda stock price 2011-2012 DMD
  13. 13. c|c (TM) Panda-Induced ‘Market Crash’ Google CPC dropped just after Panda calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 13
  14. 14. c|c (TM) ML came later, enabling the business model Startup Models: Lean or Fat ? calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 14 ML to find users to answer questions. Drive adoption ML predict what questions people ask on Google. Drive SEO
  15. 15. c|c (TM) Lean or Fat: modern funding models calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 15 https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/26/growing-up-in-the-intelligence-era/
  16. 16. c|c (TM) Overview: ML for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 16 1. Lean vs Fat: Aardvark vs eHow 2. ML Engineering Models 3. Enterprise AI 4. Lessons from Consulting 5. Q&A
  17. 17. c|c (TM) Part 2: ML Engineering calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 17 • Engineering Management Models • Lean Startup & Learning Circles • Aardvark case Study • Wizard of Oz Testing • From humans to AI • eHow comparison
  18. 18. c|c (TM) Management: what for ML ? (TM) 18 calculation | consulting data science leadership
  19. 19. c|c (TM) Engineering Models: V for ML ? (TM) 19 calculation | consulting data science leadership V model: Very large projects
  20. 20. c|c (TM) Engineering Models: Lean Startup (TM) 20 calculation | consulting data science leadership
  21. 21. c|c (TM) ML Product Design Cycle: Learning Circles calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 21 Peter Senge Fifth Discipline SystemsThinking
  22. 22. c|c (TM) ML Product Design Cycle: Learning Circles calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 22 Weekly team learnings Rapid turnaround & feedback vark !?
  23. 23. c|c (TM) Lean ML: In Practice calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 23 Still within a specific space; Broader search space using new tools Early ‘customer interactions’ were not ML based Fake it till you make it: ML Things you can prototype, and get feedback from users Early prototypes used Humans in the loop People pretend to be products 2010 vs 2018: ML was hard in 2010 Today, ML is easier, can make simple products
  24. 24. c|c (TM) Lean ML: Wizard of Oz Testing calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 24 Test unimplemented AI with Human in the Loop Spoliler Alert !
  25. 25. c|c (TM) Lean ML: Wizard of Oz Testing calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 25 Intercept all communications between users and system Simulate the system's responses in real-time Run live experiments Learn from user feedback “Fake it till you make it” Test unimplemented AI with Human in the Loop
  26. 26. c|c (TM) Lean ML: up to full automation calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 26 Humans act on predictions Full Human judgements Actions w/human approval Full Automation Logging 12-18 months of runway (funding $$$)
  27. 27. c|c (TM) eHow comparison ML SEO calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 27 Huge ML Risk other peoples data Generate huge number pages Collect inbound search traffic Predict out what people will ask Create evergreen content $$$ all results are eHow results now
  28. 28. c|c (TM) Overview: ML for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 28 1. Lean vs Fat: Aardvark vs eHow 2. ML Engineering Models 3. Enterprise AI 4. Lessons from Consulting 5. Q&A
  29. 29. c|c (TM) Part 3: Enterprise ML calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 29 • Types of AI Startups • Vertical Startups • Enterprise B2B Challenges • Lessons from Consulting
  30. 30. c|c (TM) Types of AI Startups: Trade-Offs calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 30 Full Stack Tech Enablers Vertical Horizontal Incremental Disruptive Full value chain Existing budgets Existing budgets Unique data Larger TAM Faster sale cycle Easier to sell First mover Longer training Cold start Existing players Adoption Bear user costs Partnerships Commoditizes Market size ? + - + -
  31. 31. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 31 Full stack products : entire value chain SME: solve a business problem directly And SELL into that domain Proprietary data: defensible IP AI delivers the core value Key components of aVertical AI startup Enterprise AI: Vertical startups
  32. 32. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 32 Key funding withVertical AI sectors Enterprise AI: Funding forVerticals
  33. 33. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 33 Enterprise exits come in cohorts Enterprise AI: Vertical startups
  34. 34. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 34 Enterprise exits have less large outliers Enterprise AI: Vertical startups
  35. 35. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 35 Where to get data ? IP sharing: no way Systems Integrations vs Algo Research Pilots vs Product Development Repeat Products vs the Consulting Trap Overcoming technical debt Key challenges of doing AI in an Enterprise Enterprise AI: B2B Challenges
  36. 36. c|c (TM) Overview: ML for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 36 1. Lean vs Fat: Aardvark vs eHow 2. ML Engineering Models 3. Enterprise AI 4. Lessons from Consulting 5. Q&A
  37. 37. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 37 Early wins come fast Improvements very hard crawl the web and label all that data or … a new car ! Consulting Lessons: Fast & Slow Gains
  38. 38. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 38 Recommenders (Amazon, Netflix) Big, fast revenue drivers 30% gains! Commoditization of algos in 3-5 years Not always plug-n-play Core business is not AI; AI is an optimization Consulting Lessons: Incrementals
  39. 39. c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 39 In 30 days 30% revenue gains Back of the Envelope Calculations Simple experiments Get into production fast Don’t plan — test Repeat until it works Consulting Lessons: Rapid Prototyping Not guaranteed, results may vary. See your data scientist for details
  40. 40. c|c (TM) Part 4: ML Soft Skills calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 40 • Data Scientists are Different • French vs Americans
  41. 41. Hiring: Data Scientists are Different c|c (TM) calculation | consulting data science leadership theoretical physics machine learning / AI specialist (TM) 41 experimental physics data scientist - interfaces with business engineer software, browser tech, dev ops, … not all techies are the same
  42. 42. c|c (TM) Working Styles: American vs French calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 42
  43. 43. c|c (TM) Working Styles: American vs French calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 43 the French are very logical
  44. 44. c|c (TM) Working Styles: US vs French calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 44 in the US, a fight is communication !!!
  45. 45. c|c (TM) Working Styles: American vs French calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 45 in the US, a fight is communication !!!
  46. 46. c|c (TM) Working together: American and French calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 46 we really want to work with you
  47. 47. c|c (TM) Overview: ML for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 47 1. Lean vs Fat: Aardvark vs eHow 2. ML Engineering Models 3. Enterprise AI 4. Lessons from Consulting 5. Q&A
  48. 48. c|c (TM) Q&A: ML and AI for Startups calculation | consulting data science leadership(TM) 48 http://www.calculationconsulting.com https://www.youtube.com/calculationconsulting email: charles@calculationconsulting.com
  49. 49. (TM) c|c (TM) c | c charles@calculationconsulting.com

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