The Future Of Social Networks

The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008

They are online with their social networks

Theme Social networks will be like air.

Components of social networks <ul><li>Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Activities </li></ul><ul><li>Business model </li></ul>Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value

My multiple identities

Universal identity <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile number </li></ul>

Universal identity foundations <ul><li>Federation (OpenID approach) </li></ul><ul><li>A few major players will serve as major federation focal points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Data Portability Group is the beginning </li></ul></ul>

Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web <ul><li>“ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: </li></ul><ul><li>Ownership of their own personal information, including: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>their own profile data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the list of people they are connected to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the activity stream of content they create; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and </li></ul><ul><li>Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington </li></ul><ul><li>http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web </li></ul>

My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group

My real social graph is much more complex

Let’s end the insanity

Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo

New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps

Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based

What people do today on social networks

Dave has a nice book review on Facebook

But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”

How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere

The under-rated value of networks

Endorsement value depends on your network <ul><li>Your authority on the specific topic </li></ul><ul><li>Your network’s interest and authority on the topic </li></ul><ul><li>The trust level among your network on the topic </li></ul>

The future business model for social networks <ul><li>Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable </li></ul><ul><li>Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals </li></ul>* From Marian Salzman, JWT

Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks

Recommendations <ul><li>Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation </li></ul><ul><li>Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in </li></ul><ul><li>Develop social applications that have meaning </li></ul><ul><li>Integrate social networks into existing activities </li></ul><ul><li>Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks </li></ul>

Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com