[Challenge:Future] Yes, we CAN prevent power outages!
Africa’s Challenge: Extended Power Outages Solu;on: rehabilita;on of “aged” power plants Sevgi Ceyda Şairoglu Sabanci University TURKEY 30 November 2011
Power outages - why important? Power outage à interruption of normal sources of electrical power Electrical power à transportation, cooking, communication, heating, air-conditioning, and lighting Power outages often accompany other types of disasters à floods, hurricanes Notable power outages:- 1977 NY City blackout- 2005 Java, Bali blackout à affected 100milion people- 2009 Brazil&Paraguay blackout àaffected 60 million peopleLet’s consider another type of power outage that African nations mightface in the next decades à need to take action NOW!
Worlwide Energy Consumption… We are facing (and will be facing more in the future) a more serious threat in Sub Saharan Africa related to electricity and power outages
Table 1. World Electriﬁca2on Rates Urban Rural Electriﬁca;on rate (%) Electriﬁca;on rate (%) Electriﬁca;on rate (%) Africa 41.9 68.9 25.0 North Africa 99.0 99.6 98.4 Sub Saharan Africa 30.5 59.9 14.3 (SSA) Developing Asia 78.1 93.9 68.8 TransiLon Economies &OECD 99.8 100.0 99.5 World 78.9 93.6 65.1 Pay special aVen;on to ﬁgures given for Sub Saharan Africa… and for a moment imagine a day without electricity (no TV, internet, mobile phone, modern cooking faciliLes, heaLng…). Imagine a year without electricity… Imagine your whole life burst into darkness…
A man made disaster threatening SSA: Power outages OUen the popula;on that has access to electricity suﬀers from poor supply quality Frequent power blackouts Table 2: Electricity Average number of days of supply Outages of ﬁrms in Africa interrup;ons per year, 2000-‐2005 Eritrea 93.9 Kenya 83.6 Madagascar 78.0 Uganda 70.8 Tanzania 60.6 Source: Mangwende and Wamukonya (2007)
Power outages in SSA create one of the worst types of poverty “Energy poverty” DeﬁniLon:lack of suﬃcient choice that would give access to adequate, aﬀordable, eﬀec;ve, and environmentally sustainable energy services that support economic and human development. Source: East African Community’s report “Strategy on Scaling Up Access to Modern Energy Services”
• Electric power transmission and distribuLon losses are largely due to ineﬃciency à the losses have increased between 1970 and 2001! • Signiﬁcant amount of power plants in SSA are built in 1960s & 1970s older than 40 years • Turkey’s General Manager of Power GeneraLon Joint Stock Company quotes “the average age of a power plant is normally 25-‐30 years and rehabilitaLon projects -‐to improve the declining capacity and to render them for a reliable producLon-‐ must take place in aging power plants.” • Although there are iniLaLves towards increasing energy access in SSA (especially in rural areas) there is no project aiming to increase energy eﬃciency and upgrade “old” power plants.
How to prevent the disaster and save SSA? • Rehabilita;on programs à aiming to increase the producLon capacity and to raise eﬃciency • Aging faciliLes are no longer able to operate at full capacity due to obsolete equipment. It is the case that “insuﬃcient maintenance and lack of modernizaLon plague Africa’s electricity infrastructure” • “Aged” power plants need to be refurbished to be eﬃcient à so we can ease the electricity outage problems in SSA
Achievable solu;on & posi;ve outcomes: Turkey’s case: A major rehabilitaLon program started in 2005 in Turkey in the thermal and hydraulic power plants that used to operate for more than 28 years. The program aimed to increase the producLon capacity and to raise eﬃciency by using new technologies. à why not do this in SSA before the conLnent bursts into darkness? Outcomes: 1. African economies can achieve higher poten;als of their economies à rise in producLvity, eﬃciency, and human capital 2. EssenLal step towards achieving key targets of the UN Millennium Development Goals à “Modern energy can directly reduce poverty by raising a poor country’s producLvity and extending the quality and range of its products-‐ thereby pumng more wages in the pockets of the deprives” (IEA, 2002)