[Challenge:Future] Yes, we CAN prevent power outages!


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[Challenge:Future] Yes, we CAN prevent power outages!

  1. 1.       Africa’s  Challenge:     Extended  Power  Outages    Solu;on:  rehabilita;on  of  “aged”  power  plants                           Sevgi  Ceyda  Şairoglu     Sabanci  University     TURKEY     30  November  2011    
  2. 2. Power outages - why important?—  Power outage à interruption of normal sources of electrical power—  Electrical power à transportation, cooking, communication, heating, air-conditioning, and lighting Power outages often accompany other types of disasters— à floods, hurricanes—  Notable power outages:- 1977 NY City blackout- 2005 Java, Bali blackout à affected 100milion people-  2009 Brazil&Paraguay blackout àaffected 60 million peopleLet’s consider another type of power outage that African nations mightface in the next decades à need to take action NOW!
  3. 3. Worlwide  Energy  Consumption…  We  are  facing  (and  will  be  facing  more  in  the  future)  a  more  serious  threat  in  Sub  Saharan  Africa  related  to  electricity  and  power  outages    
  4. 4. Table  1.  World  Electrifica2on  Rates   Urban   Rural   Electrifica;on       rate  (%)   Electrifica;on   rate    (%)   Electrifica;on   rate  (%)   Africa   41.9     68.9 25.0   North  Africa   99.0   99.6   98.4   Sub  Saharan  Africa   30.5   59.9   14.3   (SSA)   Developing  Asia   78.1   93.9   68.8   TransiLon  Economies   &OECD   99.8   100.0   99.5   World   78.9   93.6   65.1  Pay   special   aVen;on   to   figures   given   for   Sub   Saharan   Africa…   and   for   a   moment  imagine   a   day   without   electricity   (no   TV,   internet,   mobile   phone,   modern   cooking  faciliLes,  heaLng…).  Imagine  a  year  without  electricity…  Imagine  your  whole  life  burst  into  darkness…    
  5. 5. A  man  made  disaster  threatening  SSA:   Power  outages  OUen  the  popula;on  that  has  access  to  electricity  suffers  from  poor  supply  quality                    Frequent  power  blackouts   Table  2:  Electricity   Average  number  of  days  of  supply   Outages  of  firms  in  Africa   interrup;ons  per  year,  2000-­‐2005   Eritrea   93.9   Kenya   83.6   Madagascar   78.0   Uganda   70.8   Tanzania   60.6  Source:  Mangwende  and  Wamukonya  (2007)  
  6. 6. Power   outages   in   SSA   create   one   of   the   worst   types  of  poverty                                                  “Energy  poverty”                                         DefiniLon:lack   of   sufficient   choice   that   would     give   access   to   adequate,   affordable,   effec;ve,   and   environmentally   sustainable   energy       services   that   support   economic   and   human   development.      Source:  East  African  Community’s  report  “Strategy  on  Scaling  Up  Access  to  Modern  Energy  Services”      
  7. 7. Table  3:  Electric  power  transmission  and  distribu3on  losses     (%of  output)  in  African  countries  1970-­‐2001       1970   1980   1990   2000   2001   Algeria   10.7   11.7   15.1   16.3   15.7   Cameroon     5.2   7.6   13.9   25.7   14.5   Congo   4.5   31.0   18.8   65.3   69.5   Egypt   9.8   12.9   10.1   13.4   13.4   Ethiopia   6.9   5.4   10.0   10.0   10.0   Gabon   1.8   0.8   10.2   17.8   17.8   Ghana   6.1   4.7   8.6   14.7   24.0   Kenya   17.9   14.6   15.7   21.3   21.0   Nigeria   13.2   49.3   37.6   38.7   37.8   Tanzania   13.6   12.1   21.6   25.0   23.5   Zimbabwe   6.1   10.3   7.1   21.3   21.4   7  
  8. 8. •  Electric   power   transmission   and   distribuLon   losses   are   largely   due   to   inefficiency   à   the   losses   have   increased   between   1970   and  2001!    •  Significant  amount  of  power  plants  in  SSA  are  built  in                                      1960s  &  1970s                                              older  than  40  years  •  Turkey’s   General   Manager   of   Power   GeneraLon   Joint   Stock   Company   quotes   “the   average   age   of   a   power   plant   is   normally   25-­‐30  years  and  rehabilitaLon  projects  -­‐to  improve  the  declining   capacity  and  to  render  them  for  a  reliable  producLon-­‐  must  take   place  in  aging  power  plants.”  •  Although  there  are  iniLaLves  towards  increasing  energy  access  in   SSA   (especially   in   rural   areas)   there   is   no   project   aiming   to   increase  energy  efficiency  and  upgrade  “old”  power  plants.    
  9. 9. How  to  prevent  the  disaster     and  save  SSA?  •  Rehabilita;on  programs  à  aiming  to    increase  the  producLon  capacity  and  to  raise  efficiency  •  Aging  faciliLes  are  no  longer  able  to  operate  at  full  capacity   due  to  obsolete  equipment.  It  is  the  case  that  “insufficient   maintenance   and   lack   of   modernizaLon   plague   Africa’s   electricity  infrastructure”  •  “Aged”  power  plants  need  to  be  refurbished  to  be  efficient   à  so  we  can  ease  the  electricity  outage  problems  in  SSA  
  10. 10. Achievable  solu;on  &  posi;ve  outcomes:  Turkey’s  case:    A   major   rehabilitaLon   program   started   in   2005   in   Turkey   in   the   thermal   and  hydraulic   power   plants   that   used   to   operate   for   more   than   28   years.   The  program  aimed  to  increase  the  producLon  capacity  and  to  raise  efficiency  by  using   new   technologies.   à   why   not   do   this   in   SSA   before   the   conLnent  bursts  into  darkness?        Outcomes:  1.  African  economies  can  achieve  higher  poten;als  of  their  economies  à   rise  in  producLvity,  efficiency,  and  human  capital    2.  EssenLal   step   towards   achieving   key   targets   of   the   UN   Millennium   Development  Goals  à  “Modern  energy  can  directly  reduce  poverty  by   raising   a   poor   country’s   producLvity   and   extending   the   quality   and   range  of  its  products-­‐  thereby  pumng  more  wages  in  the  pockets  of  the   deprives”  (IEA,  2002)