[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)


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[Challenge:Future] HELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)

  1. 1. Autumn 2011 C:F CompetitionsHELL ON EARTH (inspiring change)The rational way to control disaster in 21st centuryIntroductionA disaster is a natural or man-made hazard that has come to fruition, resulting in an event ofsubstantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drasticchange to the environment. A disaster can be ostensively defined as any tragic event withgreat loss stemming from events such as earthquakes, floods, catastrophic accidents, fires, orexplosionsFLOODSThe word "flood" comes from the Old English flod, a word common to Germanic languages(compare German Flut, Dutch vloed from the same root as is seen in flow, float; also comparewith Latin fluctus, flumen). Deluge myths are mythical stories of a great flood sent by a deityor deities to destroy civilization as an act of divine retribution, and are featured in themythology of many cultures.Every year a community in some part of the world is devastated by catastrophic flooding.Communities in coastal regions and land near rivers and lakes are especially prone, butflooding can happen anywhere it rains.If we focus on for example what was happening in Bangkok It‘s difficult to estimate thewater volume, but if we can protect the flood barriers in three key points in the next 5 years,Bangkok should be saved, Prime minister ‖ Yingluck said at Bangkok‘s former internationalairport, which has been turned into the country‘s main flood-management center. PrimeMinister Yingluck Shinawatra opened army camps to assist house some of the 2.4 millionpeople displaced by the floods, asking authorities to accelerate efforts to protect the capital.The finance ministry yesterday cut its forecast for economic growth to 3.7 percent from 4percent and said the disaster may cause 120 billion baht ($3.9 billion) of damage.Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul warned that the situation is ―quiteworrisome,‖ further adding that agricultural industry losses may total as much as 20 billionbaht. The disaster may reduce Thailand‘s gross domestic product by 1 percentage point in thefourth quarter, increasing the likelihood that the central bank may cut interest rates by asmuch as 50 basis points by year-end to aid reconstruction efforts, HSBC Holdings Plceconomist Frederic Neumann wrote yesterday in a report to clients.Without forests, without trees, floods come easier and faster. There are no longer any foreststo help absorb the water before releasing it slowly into the rivers. Instead, rain comes andwater flows quickly into rivers, thus increasing the chances of flash floods. Filled tooquickly, the rivers break their banks. Water now flows out everywhere forming new paths.Ascities grow, flooding becomes more frequent because their infrastructure cannotaccommodate the drainage needs of land thats paved and highly developed. Moreover, aging
  2. 2. dams and levees are prone to failure, leading to the kind of devastation that New Orleans sawafter Hurricane Katrina. There is hope, however. In Japan, England, the Netherlands, andother low-lying countries, architects and civil engineers have developed innovative newtechnologies for flood control.DROUGHT:Drought is a period or condition of unusually dry weather within a geographic area whererainfall is normally present. During a drought there is a lack of precipitation. Droughts occurin all climatic zones. However, its characteristics vary significantly from one region toanother.Drought usually results in a water shortage that seriously interferes with human activity.Water-supply reservoirs empty, wells dry up, and crop damage ensues. Its seriousnessdepends on the degree of the water shortage, size of area affected, and the duration andwarmth of the dry period. In many underdeveloped countries, such as India, people place agreat demand on water supply. During a drought period there is a lack of water, and thusmany of the poor die.Most precipitation depends on water vapour carried by winds from an ocean or other sourceof moisture. If these moisture-carrying winds are replaced by winds from a dry region, or ifthey are modified by downward motion, as in the centre of an anticyclone, the weather isabnormally dry and often persistently cloudless. If the drought period is short, it is known asa dry spell. A dry spell is usually more than 14 days without precipitation, whereas a severedrought may last for years.Statistics indicate that every 22 years a major drought occurs in the United States, mostseriously affecting the Midwestern states. The drought of 1933-35, during which large areasof the Great Plains became known as the Dust Bowl, is an example of a disastrous droughtthat took place in the United States. The effect of the drought was brought about by overcropping, overpopulation, and lack of relief measures.The most pressing and dangerous issue facing the people of Kenya is the 2011 drought,which was declared a national disaster by President Mwai Kibaki in April. Access to foodand water has become very scarce, millions of livestock have died, and territorial violencehas increased drastically as people compete for patches of fertile land. When nourishment canbe found, heightened demand raises prices and makes staple goods difficult to obtain. OnJune 28th, the United Nations reported that 3.5 million people are in need of humanitarianrelief.Although drought cannot be reliably predicted, certain precautions can be taken in drought-risk areas. These include construction of reservoirs to hold emergency water supplies,education to avoid over cropping and overgrazing, and programs to limit settlement indrought-prone areas. The Southern Africa Development Community monitors the crop andfood situation in the region and alerts the people during periods of crisis.
  3. 3. Bomb attacksThe War on Terror (also known as the Global War on Terror or the War on Terrorism)is a term commonly applied to an international military campaign led by the United Statesand the United Kingdom with the support of other North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) as well as non-NATO countries. Originally, the campaign was waged against al-Qaeda and other militant organizations with the purpose of eliminating them.[1]The phrase War on Terror was first used by US President George W. Bush and other high-ranking US officials to denote a global military, political, legal and ideological struggleagainst organizations designated as terrorist and regimes that were accused of having aconnection to them or providing them with support or were perceived, or presented as posinga threat to the US and its allies in general. It was typically used with a particular focus onmilitant Islamists and al-Qaeda.Objectives 1. Identify, locate and destroy terrorists along with their organizations 2. Deny sponsorship, support and sanctuary to terrorists 3. Diminish the underlying conditions that terrorists seek to exploitSo the question we have to ask ourselves is that HOW TERRORIST AND BOMBATTACKS END IN THE 21ST CENCTURY? the reshuffling of international relations thataccompanied the end of the Cold War provided a glimmer of hope that the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be resolvable. The waning years of the bipolar contest saw a sharpincrease in popular unrest in the occupied territories. The first intifada, a persistent campaignof civil resistance strikes and violent demonstrations, began in December 1987. Young menand children threw stones at the Israelis, reasoning that using firearms would advantage thebetter-equipped Israeli Defence Forces and that the resultant media coverage would bring tomind David and Goliath. The PLO leadership, by this point exiled in Tunis, eventuallyregained limited direction of events, but the intifada was not PLOinitiated and, as a result,religiously oriented groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad dramatically gainedsupport among PalestiniansWhen it comes to terrorism, we are asking all the wrong questions. The most important thingwe need to ask about terrorist campaigns isn‘t ―How are we doing?‖ but ―How will it end?‖Moreover, we should be less concerned with asking ―When will the next attack be?‖ andinstead ask ―What will we do after that?‖ In How Terrorism Ends:Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns Cronin follows the demise ofterrorist groups over the past two centuries—from the African National Congress to theTamil Tigers to the Real Irish Republican Army—and outlines the steps we need to take inthe current fight against al-Qaeda. Understanding the common ways in which terrorismmovements have met their end provides the best example for how we might strategicallyapproach today‘s terrorist groups, without resorting to fear mongering.Audrey Kurth Cronin is professor of strategy at the U.S. National War College inWashington, DC, and senior associate in the Changing Character of War program at theUniversity of Oxford. She is the author of Ending Terrorism: Lessons for Defeating al-Qaedaand the co-author of Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy
  4. 4. Lessons for defeating terror and bomb attacksLike all other terrorist movements, al-Qaeda will end. While it has traits that exploit andreflect the current international context, it is not utterly without precedent: some aspects of al-Qaeda are unusual, but many are not. Terrorist groups end according to recognisable patternsthat have persisted for centuries, and they reflect, among other factors, the counter-terroristpolicies taken against them. It makes sense to formulate those policies with a specific imageof an end in mind. Understanding how terrorism ends is the best way to avoid being manipulated by the tactic.There is vast historical experience with the decline and ending of terrorist campaigns, yet fewpolicymakers are familiar with it. This paper first explains five typical strategies of terrorismand why Western thinkers fail to grasp them. It then describes historical patterns in endingterrorism to suggest how insights from that history can lay a foundation for more effectivecounter-strategies. Finally, it extracts policy prescriptions specifically relevant to ending thecampaign of al-Qaeda and its associates, moving towards a post al-Qaeda worldEmergency management is the generic name of an interdisciplinary field dealing with thestrategic organizational management processes used to protect critical assets of anorganization from hazard risks that can cause events like disasters or catastrophes and toensure the continuance of the organization within their planned lifetime. Emergencies,Disasters, and Catastrophes are not gradients, they are separate, distinct problems that requiredistinct strategies of response. Disasters are events distinguished from everyday emergenciesby four factors: Organizations are forced into more and different kinds of interactions thannormal; Organizations lose some of their normal autonomy; Performance standards change,and; More coordinated public sector/private sector relationships are required. Catastrophesare distinct from disasters in that: Most or all of the community built structure is heavilyimpacted; Local officials are unable to undertake their usual work roles; Most, if not all, ofthe everyday community functions are sharply and simultaneously interrupted, and; Helpfrom nearby communities cannot be provided.Assets are categorized as either living things, non-living things, cultural or economic.Hazards are categorized by their cause, either natural or human-made. The entire strategicmanagement process is divided into four fields to aid in identification of the processes. Thefour fields normally deal with risk reduction, preparing resources to respond to the hazard,responding to the actual damage caused by the hazard and limiting further damage (e.g.,emergency evacuation, quarantine, mass decontamination, etc.), and returning as close aspossible to the state before the hazard incident. The field occurs in both the public and privatesector, sharing the same processes, but with different focuses. Emergency Management is astrategic process, and not a tactical process, thus it usually resides at the Executive level in anorganization. It normally has no direct power, but serves as an advisory or coordinatingfunction to ensure that all parts of an organization are focused on the common goal. EffectiveEmergency Management relies on a thorough integration of emergency plans at all levels ofthe organization, and an understanding that the lowest levels of the organization areresponsible for managing the emergency and getting additional resources and assistance fromthe upper levels.
  5. 5. CLIMATE CHANGEClimate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weatherpatterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change inaverage weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average (e.g., more orfewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region or mayoccur across the whole EarthGlobal warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earths atmosphere and oceansand its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earths average surface temperature increased byabout 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last threedecades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90%certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced byhuman activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. These findings are recognizedby the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) bythe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21stcentury the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F)for their lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11 °F) for their highest. Theranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhousegas concentrations.An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amountand pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming isexpected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat ofglaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequentoccurrence of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfallevents, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agriculturalyields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe,though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 °C world, the limits forhuman adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits foradaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, theecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation tothe effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from theatmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main internationalmitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrationto prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference" As of October 2011, 192 states hadratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treatybut have not yet ratified it are the USA and AfghanistanPoliticsArticle 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhousegas concentrations.‘‘ In order to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2, emissionsworldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level. Most countries areParties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate
  6. 6. objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system. As isstated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at alevel where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, andeconomic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions haverisen.[124][135] During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nationsrepresenting 133 developing nations) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to"[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: thedeveloped worlds emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere;per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low indeveloping countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet theirdevelopment needs. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the FrameworkConvention, which entered into legal effect in 2005.In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally bindingcommitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. USPresident George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world,including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and wouldcause serious harm to the US economy."At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, severalUNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[139] Parties associated with the Accord(140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global meantemperature to below 2 °C. A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by theUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap"between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a"likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective. The UNEPassessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global meantemperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studiesgenerally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantialdeclines in emissions thereafter.The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced anagreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reducegreenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to aglobal average rise of 1.5 °CClimate change is one of the greatest environmental issues of our time.We need to act quickly and take advantage of existing solutions to prevent irreversibledamage to our planet. Natural ecosystems provide significant opportunities to cut emissionsdramatically and to preserve the adaptive potential of our biosphere.
  7. 7. GOAL: Curbing emissions and adapting to changeMany factors are contributing to climate change, from fossil fuel use to the burning andclearing of tropical forests. We need a comprehensive approach to reduce the impacts ofclimate change – an approach that decreases emissions across all sectors and enhances theadaptive capacity of all nations.Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at350-450 parts per million CO2 equivalent (ppm CO2e) is essential. The current GHG levelis approximately 390 ppm CO2e.Scientists have estimated that lowering concentrations to 350 ppm may enable us to averttipping points of ocean acidification and the melting of permafrost and arctic ice.Stabilization at 450 ppm is thought to be the threshold to avoid dangerous warming of morethan 2 degrees Celsius, which would bring potentially catastrophic impacts for natural andhuman communities alike.We are already seeing changing weather patterns impacting food production and speciesmigration. Fresh water scarcity risks becoming even more acute in drought-stricken countriesand flooding may increasingly threaten our coastal communities and directly impact hundredsof thousands of people each year. Conflict is increasing over strained ecosystems and localcommunities are being forced from their homes.Solutions are needed now. Our ecosystems must be able to adapt to these changes so that theycan retain productivity, continue to buffer extreme weather events and provide fresh waterand a myriad of other services for all life on Earth. In addition, human communities need theknowledge and tools to effectively adapt to the impacts of climate changeOur solution: Protection and sustainable management of natural ecosystemsProtecting the Earths ecosystems can yield immediate, cost-effective climate changesolutions that will be forever lost if we do not take immediate action.For example, the burning and clearing of tropical forests is a major – though oftenunrecognized – source of greenhouse gas emissions. It accounts for roughly 16 percent oftotal global emissions, more than all of the worlds cars, trucks, ships, trains and planescombined. It is now generally recognized that it will be impossible to achieve any of theneeded targets for mitigating climate change without significantly curbing the clearing andburning of tropical forests. In fact, reducing global deforestation by 50 percent by 2020 offersnearly one-third of the cost-effective, technologically available options to meet 450 ppmstabilization targets.In addition, intact forests and other natural ecosystems – including wetlands, peatlands, coralreefs and mangroves – also reduce the risk of catastrophic impacts like floods and droughts,contribute to food and freshwater security for both rural and urban communities, allow forspecies migration and ecological adaptation, and support the livelihoods of indigenous andlocal communities. Maintaining these ecosystems will ensure that humans and other speciescan remain as resilient as possible to the impacts of climate change.
  8. 8. CONCLUSSION Disasters Major Events in 21st Century
  9. 9. World Disasters, 21st Century Event Map World Disasters, 21st Century TimelineWorld Disasters, 21st Century Map Legend Event of the Century Significant Event Other Event Aviation Disasters Earthquake Fire Rescue Environmental Space Disasters Health Disasters Weather Related Volcano Flood Sea Disasters Stampede Mine Accident Landslide Explosion Refugees Structure Collapse Avalanche Animal
  10. 10. Tsunami hits Japan: The most devastating naturaldisasters of the 21st centuryIf it seems like theres a new natural disaster claiming the lives of thousands of people everyfew months, its because its true. Since 2000, more than 20 weather-related catastrophes haveoccurred, devastating countries such as Haiti, Indonesia, China, and the United States. Fromearthquakes to hurricanes, mudslides to volcanic eruptions, take a look at the most horrificnatural disasters of the 21st Century ...2011 Japanese EarthquakeA 8.9 magnitude earthquake slammed Japans northeastern coast, unleashing a 33-foottsunami on March 11. Earthquake-triggered tsunamis have spread through the waters fromJapan to Hawaii and California.Above, houses are shown in flame while the Natori river floods over the surrounding area bytsunami tidal waves in Natori city, Miyagi Prefecture on March 11, 2011.‗‗A disaster where marble has been substituted for imagination‘‘By: hashim sheikh abdinoor, University of Nairobi