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Wassmann - Adapted rice crops for a 2030 world

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Reiner Wassaman (IRRI) Adapted rice crops for a 2030 world (presentation from Adaptation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

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Wassmann - Adapted rice crops for a 2030 world

  1. 1. Adapted Rice Crops for a 2030 World
  2. 2. The  Green  Revolu-on  in  Asia  1960s     •  Yields  approx.    1.5  t/ha   •  Famines   predicted,  slow   growth    Today   •  Yields  approx.     4  t/ha   •  Founda<on  for   economic   Modern  semi  –   Tradi-onal  rice:  more   growth   dwarf  variety:  grain   biomass  than  grain   not  biomass  
  3. 3. Trends in Rice Prices
  4. 4. Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production
  5. 5. Sensitivity to Heat Stress LOW HIGH MEDIUM Grain Pollination Panicle filling developmentLeaf, tiller and root development
  6. 6. Spikelet sterility induced by high temperature at flowering Temp. threshold depends on humidity (ca. 34-35ºC in humid tropics). Sterility increases by 16% with a 1ºC increase above Temp. threshold
  7. 7. Peng et al. 200418171615
  8. 8. Field experiment on nighttime temperature
  9. 9. Sea Level Trends/ FutureIPCC 2001 IPCC 2007
  10. 10. Mega-Deltas of Asia
  11. 11. New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in field at IRRI IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)Samba IR64 Samba IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR64-Sub1 Samba IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba-Sub1 IR64
  12. 12. Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Typhoons Hurricanes Cyclones Cyclones UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-frequency>
  13. 13. Tropical Cyclones and Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):•  As of now, ‘there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones’.•  Under ongoing global warming, however, ‘it is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation…’.
  14. 14. Impact of Cyclone Nargisin Myanmar (May 2008) Before Nargis After Nargis
  15. 15. Typhoon Effects in Philippines vs. MyanmarXangsane (Sep. 06) > 150 km/h wind speed: 1022 km Track over land > 180 km/h wind speed: 365 km Standing rice crop: 33,000 ha Area affected Salinity intrusion: ?Nargis (May 08) > 150 km/h wind speed: 348 km Track over land > 180 km/h wind speed: 55 km Standing rice crop: 16,000 ha Area affected Salinity intrusion: 1,750,000 ha* * http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/05/Burma_Cyclone_Nargis_Rice_Impact
  16. 16. Adaptation to Climate Change Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  17. 17. Diversity of rice gene and rice growing environments Origin Distribution
  18. 18. ConclusionAdaptation:Rice systems haveto become moreresilientto…•  Drought•  Submergence•  Salinity•  Heat waves Challenges of Adaptation = Challenges in unfavorable environments

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