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Tubiello Estimating GHG emissions FAO july 2012

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Presentation at CCAFS - FAO Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture

16 - 17 July 2012


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Tubiello Estimating GHG emissions FAO july 2012

  1. 1. Estimating GHG Emissions within FAOSTAT: A tool for Reporting and Capacity Building Funded by: NAMA Workshop, July 17th 2012, FAO Rome
  2. 2. Monitoring and Assessment of GHG Emissions and Mitigation Potentials in Agriculture Project Goals: •Generate knowledge to help developing countries identify, assess and report their GHG emissions in agriculture, forestry and fisheries •Help countries identify mitigation options consistent with their rural development goals, food security, agro-ecosystems resilience, including NAMAs •Close collaboration with IPCC and UNFCCC in support of reporting and negotiations
  3. 3. Main Project Activities: •Development of FAOSTAT GHG emission database, to support countries UNFCCC reporting goals •Build capacity of member states to report GHG data; web portal to access data and methodologies •Contribution to IPCC AR5; Independent Technical Assessment •Evidence base for UNFCCC international negotiations MA GHG Funded by:
  4. 4. Key Science and Policy Issues: FAOSTAT GHG: Building a Platform in support of National Accounting and Data sharing •Unlike for energy, no international agency regularly reports for GHG agriculture •Coverage of non-Annex I extremely poor in UNFCCC •Supporting developing country reporting within the UN system: challenges and opportunities for FAO and FAOSTAT
  5. 5. METHODOLOGY AND WORKPLAN Methods: GHG = ActivityData*EF 1.Use FAOSTAT country-level activity data for agriculture and forestry sector, including LUC 2.Use IPCC guidelines Tier 1 EFs a.Compile Global Dataset b.Compare existing global coverage national-level databases for all emission categories (enteric, soils, manure, rice, etc.): UNFCCC EPA EDGAR FAOSTAT MAGHG
  6. 6. RESULTS: FAOSTAT GHG DATABASE COVERS > 75% GLOBAL EMISSIONS FAO and FAOSTAT online internal database 0 500000000 1E+09 1.5E+09 2E+09 2.5E+09 3E+09 3.5E+09 4E+09 4.5E+09 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) FAOSTAT GHG Emissions AG TOTAL AG Enteric OrgFert SynFert RICE CropRes
  7. 7. RESULTS: DATASET COMPARISONS M&A GHG
  8. 8. RESULTS: DATASET COMPARISONS M&A GHG World Top 10 non-Annex I Emitters; Enteric Fermentation FAOSTAT MAGHG India Brazil China Pakistan Argentina Sudan Mexico Ethiopia (PDR 1990-1993) Colombia 1990 176,799 57,376 38,803 25,946 1991 182,091 1992 184,842 37,947 1993 185,514 1994 188,412 188,895 213,822 43,953 60,231 37,255 28,077 28,753 1995 192,675 34,272 1996 188,580 35,752 1997 191,793 56,552 1998 193,662 36,548 1999 195,237 2000 201,579 57,526 36,321 30,929 2001 209,286 2002 216,237 37,367 2003 227,472 2004 237,762 33,259 2005 241,227 2006 37,181 2007 2008 2009 2010 176,799 57,376 38,803 25,946 India Brazil China Pakistan Argentina Sudan Mexico Ethiopia (PDR 1990-1993) Colombia 1990 246,450 188,093 141,675 41,106 67,689 21,742 44,041 28,071 31,523 1991 249,275 194,457 143,960 41,928 66,986 22,782 43,359 28,229 31,552 1992 253,058 197,107 145,539 42,770 67,470 25,916 41,902 28,987 32,091 1993 254,170 197,699 149,119 43,637 66,362 28,651 42,500 23,944 32,791 1994 255,644 201,563 155,786 44,530 66,852 30,949 42,476 24,232 33,257 1995 256,993 205,399 168,819 45,448 66,046 31,949 41,866 24,160 33,270 1996 258,404 198,450 171,884 47,596 63,773 33,110 40,736 25,261 34,045 1997 258,921 202,406 155,716 48,710 62,792 34,494 42,423 26,306 33,560 1998 259,181 204,584 168,031 49,865 60,497 35,907 42,740 28,533 33,695 1999 259,415 206,482 172,516 51,196 61,782 37,527 41,774 28,148 32,103 2000 259,328 213,002 176,259 52,314 61,310 39,132 42,213 26,460 32,255 2001 260,434 220,798 172,511 53,612 61,500 40,653 42,397 28,431 32,484 2002 261,129 231,523 166,840 54,960 65,067 41,128 43,336 32,675 32,828 2003 262,269 243,718 165,427 56,414 69,603 43,059 43,453 31,742 32,933 2004 267,000 254,599 165,799 57,804 70,851 43,627 43,230 32,235 33,116 2005 272,048 258,066 165,890 59,324 71,220 44,698 42,887 33,854 34,087 2006 276,763 256,721 163,496 64,387 72,879 45,526 43,122 36,330 34,099 2007 282,726 249,409 156,475 66,385 73,368 45,807 43,443 40,194 34,404 2008 287,997 252,600 157,501 68,470 72,060 45,847 43,922 42,008 34,535 2009 292,914 256,324 157,724 70,624 68,426 46,168 44,649 42,871 35,562 2010 300,981 261,675 159,814 72,931 61,953 46,557 45,070 43,052 35,846
  9. 9. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 FAOSTAT GHG vs Annex I Reporting: Enteric Fermentation UNFCCC FAOSTAT
  10. 10. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Gg CO2 eq Annex I CH4 emissions FAOSTAT UNFCCC EDGAR EPA GLOBAL DATASETS (Annex I): Rice
  11. 11. ANALYSES WITH FAOSTAT GHG DATA M&A GHG
  12. 12. y = 4E+07x - 7E+10 R² = 0.9835 0 500000000 1E+09 1.5E+09 2E+09 2.5E+09 3E+09 3.5E+09 4E+09 4.5E+09 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) FAOSTAT GHG Emissions AG TOTAL AG Enteric OrgFert SynFert RICE CropRes
  13. 13. y = 4E+07x - 7E+10 R² = 0.9835 0 500000000 1E+09 1.5E+09 2E+09 2.5E+09 3E+09 3.5E+09 4E+09 4.5E+09 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) FAOSTAT GHG Emissions AG TOTAL AG Enteric OrgFert SynFert RICE CropRes
  14. 14. y = 2E+07x - 4E+10 R² = 0.9792 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 0 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 kg GHG Emissions/kg meat produced GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) & TOTAL PRIMARY Meat PRoduction (tDMeq& t meat) CARBON Intensity of MEAT Production TOTAL GHG_LIVESTOCK Meat Production Unit Livestock GHG Emissions/Meat
  15. 15. 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 1,500,000,000.00 1,700,000,000.00 1,900,000,000.00 2,100,000,000.00 2,300,000,000.00 2,500,000,000.00 2,700,000,000.00 2,900,000,000.00 3,100,000,000.00 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 kg GHG Emissions/kg FPC milk produced LIvestock GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) Milk Productivity (kg FPC milk/cow/year) C-Intensity vs Productivity of MILK vs GHG Emissions TOTAL GHG_LIVESTOCK Unit Livestock GHG Emissions/Milk
  16. 16. Next Steps: Planned Activities 2012-2013 GHG Database Work Peer-Review: External Expert Group, co-ownership Publications (5 papers in preparation) IPCC WGIII Adoption Launch of the FAOSTAT GHG database: October 2012 APCAS; COP MOP Doha December 2012
  17. 17. Next Steps: Planned Activities 2012-2013 MAGHG Outreach i)Regional Stakeholder Meetings for capacity building of relevant reporting agencies; first planned: APCAS Regional Workshop Vietnam, October 2012 ii)FAOSTAT Capacity Building; Pilot non-Annex I countries use FAOSTAT to comply with UNFCCC reporting, explore use for NAMAs iii)IPCC WGIII Mitigation Chapter 11 AFOLU, higher order drafts and data analysis iv)FAO Technical Assessment on mitigation potentials in line with rural development and food security objectives
  18. 18. Thank You!
  19. 19. 0 5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) GHG Emissions (tC) FAOSTAT GHG Emissions LULUCF TOTAL LULUCF
  20. 20. 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) GHG Emissions AG + LULUCF TOTAL GHG+LULUCF TOTAL GHG TOTAL LULUCF Enteric OrgFert SynFert RICE CropRes
  21. 21. 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 0 1E+09 2E+09 3E+09 4E+09 5E+09 6E+09 7E+09 8E+09 9E+09 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Unit GHG Emissions/unit food supplied GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) & TOTAL PRIMARY FOOD SUPPLY (tDMeq) Carbon Intensity of CROP Production, with and w/o LULUCF TOTAL GHG+LULUCF CROP Production Unit GHG Emissions/TOTAL CROP Unit AG+LULUCF GHG Emissions/TOTAL CROP
  22. 22. Conclusions: Achievements 2012: •Development of FAOSTAT GHG emission database, to support countries UNFCCC reporting goals; portal to access GHG data and methodologies •Build capacity of member states to report GHG data through improved statistical data reporting (ESS LUC Questionnaires; N-Fertilization Workshop) •Contribution to IPCC AR5; Contributing Author/Lead Author for Chapter 11 WGIII, AFOLU; LA Meeting Wellington NZ Mar 2012; data backbone for Agriculture MA GHG Funded by:
  23. 23. Conclusions: Achievements 2012: •Development of FAOSTAT GHG emission database, to support countries UNFCCC reporting goals; portal to access GHG data and methodologies •Build capacity of member states to report GHG data through improved statistical data reporting (ESS LUC Questionnaires; N-Fertilization Workshop) •Contribution to IPCC AR5; Contributing Author/Lead Author for Chapter 11 WGIII, AFOLU; LA Meeting Wellington NZ Mar 2012; data backbone for Agriculture MA GHG Funded by:
  24. 24. GLOBAL DATASETS: Enteric Fermentation 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gt CO2 eq Global Enteric Fermentation Estimates EPA FAOSTAT edgar
  25. 25. - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Gg CO2 eq Global Emissions trends FAOSTAT EDGAR EPA GLOBAL DATSETS: Rice
  26. 26. y = 4E+07x - 7E+10 R² = 0.9835 y = -0.0074x + 15.416 R² = 0.9834 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Unit GHG Emissions/unit food supplied GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) & TOTAL PRIMARY FOOD SUPPLY (tDMeq) CARBON Intensity of CROP Production TOTAL GHG CROP Production Unit GHG Emissions/TOTAL CROP
  27. 27. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 FAOSTAT UNFCCC FAOSTAT GHG vs Annex I Reporting: Rice
  28. 28. y = 2E+07x - 4E+10 R² = 0.9792 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 0 500,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 kg GHG Emissions/kg FPC milk produced GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) & TOTAL PRIMARY MILK PRODUCTION (tDMeq& t FPC milk) CARBON Intensity of MILK Production TOTAL GHG_LIVESTOCK Milk Production Unit Livestock GHG Emissions/Milk

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