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Informed sampling for testing 
mitigation options 
Mariana C. Rufino
SAMPLES 
Standard 
Assessment 
of 
Mi3ga3on 
Poten3al 
for 
Smallholder 
systems 
h8p://www.samples.ccafs.cgiar.org/
Three 
messages 
• Decide 
on 
what 
ma8ers, 
scale, 
boundaries 
• Address 
heterogeneity, 
don’t 
ignore 
it 
• Aim 
at ...
How 
to 
iden3fy 
mi#ga#on 
op#ons 
at 
farm 
and 
landscape 
level?
Complex 
landscape: 
f 
(i, 
j, 
k, 
l, 
m) 
i 
Landscape 
units 
j 
Farm 
types 
Physical 
environment 
Social 
and 
econ...
Complex 
landscape: 
f 
(i, 
j, 
k, 
l, 
m) 
i 
Landscape 
units 
j 
Farm 
types 
Physical 
environment 
Social 
and 
econ...
Complex 
landscape: 
f 
(i, 
j, 
k, 
l, 
m) 
i 
Landscape 
units 
j 
Farm 
types 
Physical 
environment 
Social 
and 
econ...
Which 
prac3ces 
and 
what 
benefits?
What 
ma8ers 
at 
landscape 
level? 
• Soils 
• Eleva3on 
gradients 
• Vegeta3on 
pa8erns
Top-­‐down: 
first 
step 
Quickbird 
image, 
Lower 
Nyando, 
western 
Kenya
Top-­‐down: 
zooming 
in
Top-­‐down: 
eleva3on 
gradient?
Top-­‐down: 
eleva3on 
gradient
What 
ma8ers 
at 
landscape 
level? 
• Soils 
• Eleva3on 
gradients 
• Vegeta3on 
pa8erns
Top-­‐down: 
soil 
types
Mean 
NDVI 
Top-­‐down: 
vegeta3on 
pa8ers 
2001 
2002 
2003 
2004 
2005 
2006 
2007 
2008 
2009 
2010 
2011 
2012 
MODIS ...
Slope 
(%) 
Top-­‐down: 
slope
What 
ma8ers 
at 
landscape 
level? 
• Soils 
(too 
coarse, 
excluded) 
• Eleva3on 
gradients 
(DEM 
and 
slope) 
• Vegeta...
Top-­‐down: 
landscape 
units 
Landscape 
units: 
Vegeta3on 
pa8erns 
+ 
eleva3on 
+ 
slope
Which 
prac3ces 
and 
what 
benefits?
What 
ma8ers 
at 
farm 
and 
field 
level? 
• Crops, 
trees, 
livestock 
• Input 
use 
(fer3lisers, 
crop 
residues, 
wate...
Complex 
landscape: 
f 
(i, 
j, 
k, 
l, 
m) 
i 
Landscape 
units 
j 
Farm 
types 
Physical 
environment 
Social 
and 
econ...
Top-­‐down 
+ 
bo8on 
up 
Sampling 
intensity 
(sites: 
area) 
In 
terms 
of 
a 
250 
m 
square 
grid 
class sites area (k...
Top-­‐down 
+ 
bo8on 
up 
Landscape 
units 
and 
land 
users 
-­‐> 
basis 
for 
sampling
Field 
typology 
survey Date: 
Surveyor: 
HH 
ID: 
______________________ 
Name 
of 
respondent:___________________ 
PLOT ...
Bo8on-­‐ 
up: 
field 
and 
farm, 
several 
indicators 
Farm 
type 
Field 
type 
Profit 
($/ 
ha) 
Produc3on 
(kg/ha) 
Emis...
1 2 3 4 5 
4 8 12 
land class 
CO2 emissions 
1 2 3 4 5 
−10 −4 0 
Emissions data 
land class 
CH4 emissions 
1 2 3 4 5 
0...
How 
to 
iden3fy 
mi#ga#on 
op#ons 
at 
farm 
and 
landscape 
level?
Complex 
landscape: 
f 
(i, 
j, 
k, 
l, 
m) 
i 
Landscape 
units 
j 
Farm 
types 
Physical 
environment 
Social 
and 
econ...
Discussion 
• Decide 
on 
what 
ma8ers, 
scale, 
boundaries 
• Address 
heterogeneity: 
landscape 
units, 
farm 
types, 
f...
Mariana C. Rufino, m.rufino@cgiar.org 
SAMPLES 
Standard 
Assessment 
of 
Mi3ga3on 
Poten3al 
for 
Smallholder 
systems 
h...
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Rufino Informed sampling for targeting mitigation Nov 10 2014

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Presentation at workshop: Reducing the costs of GHG estimates in agriculture to inform low emissions development
November 10-12, 2014
Sponsored by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Published in: Science
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Rufino Informed sampling for targeting mitigation Nov 10 2014

  1. 1. Informed sampling for testing mitigation options Mariana C. Rufino
  2. 2. SAMPLES Standard Assessment of Mi3ga3on Poten3al for Smallholder systems h8p://www.samples.ccafs.cgiar.org/
  3. 3. Three messages • Decide on what ma8ers, scale, boundaries • Address heterogeneity, don’t ignore it • Aim at low cost, but collect meaningful data
  4. 4. How to iden3fy mi#ga#on op#ons at farm and landscape level?
  5. 5. Complex landscape: f (i, j, k, l, m) i Landscape units j Farm types Physical environment Social and economic environment l Field types Local management Define project interven3on (LUC, hotspots) Income, tenure, food security GHG emissions, produc3vity, economics k Common lands m Land types
  6. 6. Complex landscape: f (i, j, k, l, m) i Landscape units j Farm types Physical environment Social and economic environment l Field types Local management k Common lands m Land types Top-­‐ down
  7. 7. Complex landscape: f (i, j, k, l, m) i Landscape units j Farm types Physical environment Social and economic environment l Field types Local management k Common lands m Land types Bo8on -­‐up
  8. 8. Which prac3ces and what benefits?
  9. 9. What ma8ers at landscape level? • Soils • Eleva3on gradients • Vegeta3on pa8erns
  10. 10. Top-­‐down: first step Quickbird image, Lower Nyando, western Kenya
  11. 11. Top-­‐down: zooming in
  12. 12. Top-­‐down: eleva3on gradient?
  13. 13. Top-­‐down: eleva3on gradient
  14. 14. What ma8ers at landscape level? • Soils • Eleva3on gradients • Vegeta3on pa8erns
  15. 15. Top-­‐down: soil types
  16. 16. Mean NDVI Top-­‐down: vegeta3on pa8ers 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 MODIS 3me series – Nyando, western Kenya
  17. 17. Slope (%) Top-­‐down: slope
  18. 18. What ma8ers at landscape level? • Soils (too coarse, excluded) • Eleva3on gradients (DEM and slope) • Vegeta3on pa8erns (NDVI analysis)
  19. 19. Top-­‐down: landscape units Landscape units: Vegeta3on pa8erns + eleva3on + slope
  20. 20. Which prac3ces and what benefits?
  21. 21. What ma8ers at farm and field level? • Crops, trees, livestock • Input use (fer3lisers, crop residues, water) • Produc3vity • Economics • Tenure
  22. 22. Complex landscape: f (i, j, k, l, m) i Landscape units j Farm types Physical environment Social and economic environment l Field types Local management k Common lands m Land types Bo8on -­‐up
  23. 23. Top-­‐down + bo8on up Sampling intensity (sites: area) In terms of a 250 m square grid class sites area (km2) sites:area cultivated (cash and subsistence) 28 2.74 10.23 cultivated (cash) 47 5.94 7.91 cultivated (grasslands and pastures) 47 12.69 3.70 cultivated (subsistence) 141 41.54 3.39 mixed 93 34.69 2.68 uncultivated vegetation 4 2.39 1.67
  24. 24. Top-­‐down + bo8on up Landscape units and land users -­‐> basis for sampling
  25. 25. Field typology survey Date: Surveyor: HH ID: ______________________ Name of respondent:___________________ PLOT LOCATION AND SIZE South_______________ East________________ Error________ Plot Subplot Subplot Subplot ID Area (m2) Land cover Photo ID Land tenure: Communal Rented Owned Does the farmer burn the plot? regularly sometimes never Agricultural practices Crops commonly planted in field Crop (e.g. Maize) Highest yields (local units) _________________ ___________________ _________________ ___________________ _________________ ___________________ Land cover prior to agriculture: Forest Grass or shrubland unknown How many years ago was it covered to agriculture (circle one): 0-­‐2 2-­‐5 5-­‐10 >10 unknown Are fertilizers applied? Yes or No If yes, which sub-­‐plot? __________________ YES, FERTILIZERS ARE APPLIED Type Amount Crop _______ ________ _________ _______ ________ _________ _______ ________ _________ _______ ________ _________ Woody cover (%) <4 4 -­‐ 15 15 -­‐ 40 40 -­‐ 65 >65 Herbaceous cover (%): <4 4 -­‐ 15 15 -­‐ 40 40 -­‐ 65 >65 Visible evidence of erosion Rill Sheet Gully none What is your best plot (or subplot) and why? Type (eg) UREA CAN MANURE AMOUNT = PER PLOT ID WHICH CROP Do animals graze the plot? regularly sometimes never Bo8on-­‐ up: field characteris3cs
  26. 26. Bo8on-­‐ up: field and farm, several indicators Farm type Field type Profit ($/ ha) Produc3on (kg/ha) Emissions (t CO2eq per ha) Emissions (kg CO2 per kg product) Social acceptability (ranking) 1 1 50 500 0.6 1.2 1 1 2 140 5000 3 0.6 2 1 3 120 2000 2 1.0 2 1 4 40 4500 3 0.7 1 2 1 30 800 0.7 0.9 3 2 3 180 8000 3 0.4 2 2 4 250 300 0.5 1.7 1 n m Vn,m Wn,m Xn,m Yn,m Zn,m
  27. 27. 1 2 3 4 5 4 8 12 land class CO2 emissions 1 2 3 4 5 −10 −4 0 Emissions data land class CH4 emissions 1 2 3 4 5 0.0 1.0 land class N2O emissions 1 2 3 4 8 12 land class CO2 emissions land class CH4 emissions 1 2 3 −10 −4 0 1 2 3 0.0 1.0 land class N2O emissions annuals grass trees/shrubs 4 8 12 land class CO2 emissions annuals grass trees/shrubs −10 −4 0 land class CH4 emissions annuals grass trees/shrubs 0.0 1.0 land class N2O emissions Highland Lowland Mid−slope 4 8 12 CO2 emissions Highland Lowland Mid−slope −10 −4 0 CH4 emissions Highland Lowland Mid−slope 0.0 1.0 N2O emissions Land%Class% Field%Type% Crop%Type% Landscape%Posi3on% CO2%Emissions%(T%ha:1)% CH4%Emissions%(kg%ha:1)% N2O%Emissions%(kg%ha:1)% Pelster et al. 2014 Top-­‐down + bo8on up
  28. 28. How to iden3fy mi#ga#on op#ons at farm and landscape level?
  29. 29. Complex landscape: f (i, j, k, l, m) i Landscape units j Farm types Physical environment Social and economic environment l Field types Local management Define project interven3on (LUC, hotspots) Income, tenure, food security GHG emissions, produc3vity, economics k Common lands m Land types Top-­‐down + bo8on up
  30. 30. Discussion • Decide on what ma8ers, scale, boundaries • Address heterogeneity: landscape units, farm types, field types, farming prac3ces • Aim at low cost, but collect meaningful data
  31. 31. Mariana C. Rufino, m.rufino@cgiar.org SAMPLES Standard Assessment of Mi3ga3on Poten3al for Smallholder systems h8p://www.samples.ccafs.cgiar.org/

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