Putting the world on the 2-degree
path: Four actions for mitigation
Lini Wollenberg,
CCAFS Low Emission Development Flagship
Sunday, 22 Sept 2019
Building a Resilient Future, UN Climate Summit 22 Sep 2019

Mitigation in food systems
1. Significant
• 19-29% of global emissions from food system (80-86% from
agricultural production)
• On average, 30% of countries’ total emissions are from
agriculture
2. Necessary
Reductions in other sectors will not be enough to achieve 2
°C and 1.5 °C targets
3. Possible
Many practices are compatible with SDGs, hence the
possibility of “low emissions development”

A target to stabilize the climate

Action #1: Zero agricultural land expansion on
high carbon landscapes
THE CHALLENGE: Zero agricultural land expansion in supply chains through
2050 to maintain existing high biomass landscapes
• In 2050, land use change due to agriculture will generate 6 GtCO2/yr
• Only a few commodities responsible for most deforestation: palm oil,
beef, soy, pulp, rubber, cocoa and coffee
• 80% of global forest loss is expected to take place in 11 deforestation
fronts (2030 projection). S America is a hot spot.
The 11 deforestation fronts,
with projected losses, 2010–
2030. Source: WWF Living
Forests Report (2015).
WHERE is action
needed ?

Action #2: Maintaining soil health in croplands
for regenerative agriculture
• Peatlands hold 32% - 46% of all soil carbon (~500– 700 Gt)
• Agriculture is a major driver of soil carbon loss, yet cropland soils
worldwide could store an additional 0.9 to 1.95 Gt C per year .
THE CHALLENGE: Avoid soil C loss on 250 million hectares of
croplands by 2030, by protecting high soil C landscapes and storing
C where possible, without increasing net emissions
WHERE is action
needed?
Figure 6. Global soil organic carbon map (SOC t/ha in top 30 cm). Source: FAO 2019.
Figure 7. Countries setting Land Degradation Neutrality
targets. Source: UNCCD.

Action #7: Reducing beef and dairy consumption
for healthy and sustainable climate-friendly diets
• Consumption of beef & dairy is the largest single driver of agricultural GHGs
globally.
• Beef production contributes 2.9 GtCO2e/yr and dairy 1.4 GtCO2e/yr.
THE CHALLENGE: Incentivize dramatic reductions in beef and dairy
consumption in 15 high- and middle-income countries and all C40 cities
by 2030
WHERE is
action
needed?
Figure 8. Meat
supply per
person, 2013.
Source: Our World
in Data 2019.
C40 cities
80% of global food
consumption in 2050
will occur in cities

Action #8: Reducing food loss and waste
The food supply chain contributes ~13.7 Gt CO2e/yr, and 15–45% of food is lost or
wasted (2.1 to 6.2 GtCO2e/yr)
THE CHALLENGE: Reduce food loss and waste by 50% in five major
supply chains where both GHGs and loss or waste are high, such as beef,
dairy, intensive fruit and vegetable production.
Figure 10. Share of global food loss and waste by region, 2009 (100% = 1.5 quadrillion kcal). Source: Lipinski et al. 2013.
WHERE is
action
needed?

1. Build on existing initiatives: SDGs, LDN, 4p1000, 12.3
2. Prioritize hot spot countries, supply chains, commodities
3. Set targets and commitments, for example 2020 Zero Deforestation commitments;
IKEA’s “Food is Precious” initiative, with target to reduce food waste by 50% by the
August
4. Improve transparency and accountability of finance, commodity procurement,
supply chain loss and waste toward targets, matching food demand and supply
5. Mainstream incentives, policies and technologies into national and local
government programs, company policies
6. Promote global awareness campaigns and social movements, e.g. C40, Meatless
Mondays, youth strikes
How? Towards systemic change

CCAFS Flagship on Low Emission Development
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/flagships/low-emissions-development
Thank you!
Lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu
ccafs.cgiar.org