Presentation by Bruce Campbell, Director of CCAFS, at the webinar on climate change and agricultural development.
Watch the webinar recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBGaXlBLmog
3. Farming
households
Severity of extreme events
Minor and/or
infrequent
impacts
Total loss of all livelihood
options and/or frequent
severe losses
Shifts in crops
& livestock
Emergency services
&
Humanitarian
assistance
Early warning systems
Shifts to stress-tolerant
practices and
breeds/varieties
Service
providers
TransformationalIncremental
Shifting out of
agriculture
National food security planning
MigrationSeasonal/temporary migration
National
agencies
Sovereign insurance
Index-based insurance
Seasonal advisories
Local adaptation planning
Adaptation actions
Campbell et al., 2017
4. Farming
households
Severity of extreme events
Minor and/or
infrequent
impacts
Total loss of all livelihood
options and/or frequent
severe losses
Shifts in crops
& livestock
Emergency services
&
Humanitarian
assistance
Early warning systems
Shifts to stress-tolerant
practices and
breeds/varieties
Service
providers
TransformationalIncremental
Shifting out of
agriculture
National food security planning
MigrationSeasonal/temporary migration
National
agencies
Sovereign insurance
Index-based insurance
Seasonal advisories
Local adaptation planning
Adaptation actions
Campbell et al., 2017
With lower emissions
6. Improved index
insurance
products for > 1
million farmers
in India
#1 Allocate resources in three
thirds โ needs, research, capacity
Agriculture Insurance
Company of India
#2 Tackle
power and
influence
Food security in a warming world.
35 mins
ย
Bruce M. Campbell, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) , International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) , c/o University of Copenhagen, Denmark
ย
Agriculture, and food systems more broadly, face a triple challenge. Firstly, enhancing food security to meet the 2030 SDG target of zero hunger in a more populous world. Secondly, adapting to climate change โ both in the longer term as temperatures rise but also to more extreme weather events. Thirdly, reducing emissions from agriculture. Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on crop, livestock and fisheries production, and will change the prevalence of crop pests. Many of these impacts are already measurable. Climate impact studies are dominated by those on crop yields despite the limitations of climate-crop modelling, with very little attention paid to more systems components of cropping, let alone other dimensions of food security and broader livelihood considerations (including, e.g., migration as a valid adaptation measure). Agriculture has to contribute to mitigation targets to limit warming in 2100 to 2ยฐC above pre-industrial levels, and a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e/yr by 2030 has been suggested. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation co-benefits deliver only 21 to 40 % of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed. Given the serious threats to food security, attention should shift to an action-oriented research agenda, where we see four key challenges: (a) changing the culture of research; (b) deriving stakeholder-driven portfolios of options for farmers, communities and countries; (c) ensuring that adaptation actions are relevant to those most vulnerable to climate change; (d) combining adaptation and mitigation.
This slide indicates why we need a portfolio approach โ no silver bullets โ we need to identify a portfolio of options for a specifik context
Let's look at the severity of impacts of climate, from minor and or infrequent events to exceptionally extreme events where household livelihoods frequently get wiped out.
What can households do. With minor impacts they can change varieties and breeds, with more frequent and more severe events they need to shift to other crops or other livestock species.
With even more extreme conditions the only solution may be to transit out of agriculture, with migration being a valid adaptation action.
Here we are seeing the continuum from incremental adaptation to transformative adaptation.
As indicated in the relience slide another action needed is to build natural assets.
At the national and sub-national levels what is needed to incentivise farmers to take these adaptation actions.
A productive safety net program as done in Ethiopia is an excellent way to build assets.
We need land use level adaptation planning (e.g. planning new irrigation structures) and also broader food security planning (e.g. related to food shocks)
Consideration of seasonal advisories, mobile financial services and index insurance can all incentivise the uptake of appropriate agricultural technologies for risky environments.
The key message here is that sometimes we place too much emphasis on the small portion of this graph, down at the bottom left
This company currently insures millions of farmers in India. It insures many crops.
CCAFS is working with the insurance company to design better insurance products that better help farmers manage risks.
We are working on the metrics (indices) that trigger the insurance products, These indices need to be tailored to local contexts with all their complexities, like specific crop varieties, differing planting dates and varied crop husbandry practices.
We also work on improving the weather data, as very local data is needed to provide the input into the decisions when insurance is paid out. We are exploring remote sensing data combined with meteorological data to improve the coverage of the weather data.
Shamba Shape Up: CCAFS supports scaling out of gender-sensitive climate smart practices in this Kenyan reality TV show on farm makeovers, watched by over 3 million viewers weekly. Viewers can request leaflets (in English or Swahili) that summarize content, and uptake of CSA practices is being evaluated. CSA episodes led by CCAFS have been produced, using examples from many Centers.
http://www.shambashapeup.com
Or getting knowledge linked with action
Reality TV program: Farm Makeover
Millions of viewers
CCAFS results programmed into the series