Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: What the recent science says, IPCC event, London April 2014

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Presentation by Pramod Aggarwal, Sonja Vermeulen and Bruce Campbell at the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) event "Agriculture growth, food security and climate: Taking action in response to IPCC" in London, 3 April

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: What the recent science says, IPCC event, London April 2014

  1. 1. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: What the recent science says Pramod Aggarwal, Sonja Vermeulen and Bruce Campbell CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
  2. 2. 2 AR5: Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5oC Global surface temperature in 2100: •is likely to exceed 1.5oC relative to 1850-1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. •is likely to exceed 2oC for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 •is more likely than not to exceed 2oC for RCP4.5.
  3. 3. 3 AR5: Large spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation Extreme events will increase: length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells; heavy precipitation events to increase
  4. 4. 4  Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions. Smaller effects on rice and soybean yields.  Several periods of rapid price increases following climate extremes in recent times AR5: The effects of climate change are already evident in several regions of the world (medium-high confidence)
  5. 5. 5 AR5: Significant crop yield losses from the 2030s  Negative impacts of > 2oC in low latitudes; some (generally temperate) locations may benefit  After 2050 the risk of more severe impacts in tropics increases- increased inter-annual variability, price rise, nutritional quality; limited adaptation options  Global increases of ~4oC, combined with increasing food demand, would pose large risks to food security globally and regionally
  6. 6. 6 (Source: Ericksen et al., 2011) Increased droughts, reduced surface and ground water will exacerbate threats in already vulnerable and food-insecure dry sub-tropics Climate change interactions with other stresses increases vulnerability: Spotlight on Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
  7. 7. 7 Interactions between CO2 and ozone, mean temperature, extremes, water and nitrogen are non- linear and not yet understood 7 18 -8-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Elevated CO2 at ambient O3 Elevated CO2 with sub-ambient O3 Elevated CO2 and O3 Changeinyield,% AR5: Elevated ozone can reduce the benefits of CO2 on crop yields (high confidence)
  8. 8. 8 1. Weather–based agro- advisories reach > 3 million farmers in India 2. Crop insurance covers 30 million farmers in India 3. Climate ready varietie in maize and rice What are our adaptation options: Greater focus on climate risk management Forecasting From satellite to cell phone Risk insurance Rapid payments so assets are protected Technologies; practices, and institutions That cope with extremes
  9. 9. 9 Integrated solutions leading to higher income, resilience, adapt ation and mitigation: CCAFS Climate-Smart Villages
  10. 10. 10 Conclusions for Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security 1. Climate change impacts food security. 2. Increasing ozone concentration. 3. Increasing weather variability. 4. Vulnerability limits adaptation in developing countries 5. Need for right incentives, investments, institutions and policies.
  11. 11. 11 www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for blogs and e-bulletins Twitter: @cgiarclimate Increased investment in climate-smart agriculture will ensure global peace, equity and prosperity

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