Parsons - Smallholder production - Modeling Workshop - Amsterdam_2012-04-23

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Presentation from the CCAFS Farm-household Modeling workshop - Amsterdam, 23-35 April 2012

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Parsons - Smallholder production - Modeling Workshop - Amsterdam_2012-04-23

  1. 1. An integrated simulation model for assessing smallholder crop- livestock production (in Yucatán, Mexico)David Parsons TIAR – research • development • extension • education • training
  2. 2. Short model description• Goal of model development – Simulate Mexican sheep-maize systems including very specific management decisions. – Assess outcomes on biomass and nutrient cycling, labor needs, and profitability.• Example research questions addressed – Enterprise specialization versus integration – Trade-offs in allocation of manure to crops or forages
  3. 3. The Integrated model Vensim™ APSIM Flock dynamicsClimate Livestock feedingSoil organic matter,nutrient ,and water Nutrient allocationsdynamics Venlink interface ManagementSurface organic matter variables LaborPlant growth Economics Maize Grass Corral SRNS data Intake Weight gain Manure quantity Manure quality
  4. 4. Developments needed to better deal with this attribute Which Covered For If ‘yes’, which indicators would in household Attribute indicators were you like to use For your model previous level models used? in future to deal analyses? in general with attribute?Economic yes Returns to labor, unchanged none Endogeniseperformance profitability at farmer enterprise & HH behaviour scaleFood self- in part Maize grain Other staple Additional crop Endogenisesufficiency reserves, sheep crops, other and live stock farmer (not relative to livestock enterprises behaviour consumption)Food security no Food storage Cash reserves More Endogenise economics e.g. farmer off-farm income behaviour
  5. 5. Developments needed to better deal with this attribute Covered Which indicators For If ‘yes’, which in would you like to household Attribute indicators were For your model previous use in future to level models used? analyses? deal with attribute? in generalClimate In part Effects on Same indicators, None Δs invariability production & more explicit mean, profitability analyses variance, P[Extreme]Risk No None Climate and price Capacity exists, risks simulation time an issue?Mitigation No None (Not purpose of Emissions, HH & Life cycle model) community analysis level(CC) No None Simple to add. Has capacityAdaptation What-if scenarios
  6. 6. Final remarks• Initial aims were to model a specific system, not develop a generic model; – Nor to address climate change issues• However, these methods could be built on.• Main strength is daily feedbacks between all system components• Also, icon-based display of Vensim aids thinking• Weakness is amount of development needed to model a new system

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