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Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: End of Workshop Summary


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Expert workshop on Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: Dealing with data gaps
July 17-18, 2018
Summary and workplan
Lini Wollenberg, Sinead Leahy, Harry Clark

Published in: Science
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Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: End of Workshop Summary

  1. 1. END OF WOKSHOP SUMMARY Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: Dealing with data gaps
  2. 2. Workshop aim Plan a guidance document for NDC and MRV developers on practical methods for estimating activity information Bring together country users and resource people as experts to inform plan.
  3. 3. Country needs for activity data What? • Tier 2 and NDCs, but basic Tier 1 data gaps also exist (e.g. population stocks, age bands) • Definitions / characterization of systems • Core variables: population, live weight, weight gain, milk yield,diet, manure management systems • Dynamic and relevant to developing country conditions: - Regularly updated activity data for different production systems - Reflect reduced emissions (BAU scenarios) - Seasonality
  4. 4. Country needs for activity data methods How? • Use existing data where possible and collect new data where needed • Estimate based on existing data: extrapolation, interpolation, modeling, expert judgement, classification • Data sharing among countries, databases • New data: data sampling and collection; cost-quality trade-offs • Integrate information into statistical systems and research agendas
  5. 5. Some considerations Keep it simple • Can inventory needs can be met with less data than we think? • Use sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and minimum data requirements • Data ranges, rules of thumb and conventions (averages) • Data templates and step-by-step calculations But complexities exist • Seasonality and variability: Forage digestibility by season and by year; periods of poor nutrition • Grazing, palatability; forage, not just grass • What constitutes ”dairy” Differing strategies based on countries’ data availability • Much data: What can we learn from developed countries about data collection, databases etc? How to select among data sources? • Few data: 10-year census; targeted surveys in between; use available data to parameterize models? How to design surveys?
  6. 6. Elements of the Guidance document
  7. 7. The Guidance Outline Section 1: Introduction • The need for Tier 2 • Overview of Tier 2 data needs • Institutional arrangements for data compilation (incl. links with statistical systems) Section 2: Compiling the inventory • Structuring the inventory • The data assessment flow-chart (include can it capture mitigation effects) • Ongoing improvement (incl. sensitivity analysis) Section 3: Addressing data needs 1.Population • Benefits of having this data: benefits for sector; benefits for mitigation • Discussion on the considerations of each parameter • When you have some data: how to assess quality; data analysis; resources • When the data is not adequate: how to assess quality; data analysis; resources 2. Live weight 3. Live weight gain 4. Milk yield 5. Feed (feed basket, quality) 6. Others (activity/feeding situation, pregnancy, work…) 7. AWMS (categorization of systems and amount of inputs) Appendices Methods for eliciting expert judgement Methods for determining survey sample size …etc…
  8. 8. Feedback on outline • Clarify complementarity to IPCC guidance • Definitions of activity variables needed • Details on variables needed • Overview table on activity data needs and sources • Expert judgement questions • Consult other manuals and activity data guidance, e.g. GFOI, ENEP • How to collect and aggregate/disaggregate the numbers, e.g. on populations • How to address capacity development • Show country examples throughout • Overviews of data available, e.g. UNECA analysis of data gaps • Enable future versions
  9. 9. Details of outline sections: Issues and resources Group suggestions on 1. Structure/categories of inventory data 2. Institutional arrangements and links to statistical systems 3. Data assessment procedures 4. Variable: Population 5. Variable: Manure management
  10. 10. Formats: e.g. Decision Tree • Decision tree to differentiate systems • Spreadsheet  Reported data values from other countries  to identify countries with similar conditions  include data from other countries, e.g. on milk yield • Tool to link to other databases • Animal population models: categories, growth curves and responses to forage in wet and dry season (linked to indicative methane emissions) • Spider diagram for rapid assessment (5 dimensions and institutions) – stock take of information • Template for data collection- Excel sheet; guidance on choosing number • Interactive online tool • Checklists • Data management and archive tool, cloud space • Assessment of methods using CALM process • Future tracking: Ear tag animals; mobile phone apps to capture unique ID number; GPS can locate; transfer data to central database, Can use for health and farm production.
  11. 11. Proposed WORKPLAN • Timeline - (01 August – 30 June 2019); 11 months • Process and due dates 1. Confirm lead author – Propose Andreas Wilkes By 01/08/18 2. Finalise report outline (scope, structure, content, sections) with project advisory team 3. Confirm author team and assign chapters/sections/cases/boxes to each identified author with agreed due dates By 30/09/18 4. First draft complete and sent for review with selected target users with agreed due dates By 30/01/19 5. Review comments incorporated and second draft completed By 31/03/19 6. Author/project team finalise and report completed By 30/04/19 7. Professionally edited version completed By 31/05/19 8. Communication and dissemination – CCAFS blog, GRA factsheet, Report available via the MRV online platform/CCAFS/GRA websites By 30/06/19 • Other elements?
  12. 12. • Lead author is project manager • Involve 2-3 core authors + selected contributors • Create outline for each section, • Project input  Consult target users/inventory compilers from the start  Broad advisory team for feedback and acknowledged as contributors- include additional subject matter experts  Consult professional editors from the start to set tone and common format  Peer review, human-centered design (iterative review): − Independent review for technical correctness and usability (different groups) − Formal comments and responses Test with country users (inventory compilers, sample survey designers, livestock experts), e.g. Kenya --Workshop – international, national- level, • Translation • Online v pdf- need both Proposed Workplan
  13. 13. Workplan Continued • Outputs 1. Report (PDF) 2. CCAFS Blog with highlights of report with broader audience 3. GRA Factsheet 4. Webinar • Roles 1. Lead author 2. Author team 3. Project advisory team 4. Targeted users to provide feedback on first draft 5. Resource people
  14. 14. CHATBOX ANDY Hi Andy, Help….what do I do next? Thanks.