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Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR Research Program on Climate - James Hansen


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James Hansen, leader of the of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security's Climate Risk Management theme, presented experiences in providing climate information services to farmers at an International Fund for Agricultural Development East and Southern Africa regional Knowledge Management and Capacity Building Forum, 16-18 October 2013 in Nairobi, Kenya.

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Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR Research Program on Climate - James Hansen

  1. 1. Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR Research Program on Climate James Hansen Theme 2 Leader: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk IRI, Columbia University, New York ESA Climate Change, Land and Gender Workshop Nairobi, Kenya, 17 October 24 Jun 2013 1
  2. 2. The What and Why of Climate Services Message 1: Climate services can make a contribution to climate-resilient development investment. 2
  3. 3. The cost of climate variability Climate risk contributes to chronic poverty, vulnerability, food insecurity • • • Opportunity cost: uncertainty Affects farmers, markets, the food system, the “relief trap” Climate variability is increasing Dependent on information Constrained by information gaps HARDSHIP • • FORFEITED OPPORTUNITY Several opportunities to help agriculture adapt are… CRISIS • • Downside risk: shocks Probability density • Climatic outcome (e.g. production, income) 3
  4. 4. Examples • • • • • • • Adjusting farm management and input use Community-level early warning and response to rapid onset hazards (flood, storms) Characterize risks for targeting agricultural technology and management Index-based insurance to protect assets, increase access to credit and inputs Improve safety nets and food security interventions Government planning and budgeting? Understand climate change vs. natural variability vs. nonclimatic changes to inform long-term planning 4
  5. 5. Salience: What kind of information do farmers need? • Types of climate information: • • • • Historic observations Monitored Predictive, all lead times ≤ ~20 years Some generalizations: • • • • Downscaled, locally-relevant Tailored to types & timing of decisions “Value-added” climate information: impacts on agriculture, advisories Capacity to understand and act on complex information 5
  6. 6. Time scales: weather or climate? • • Depends on time horizon of decision Generalizations about increasing lead time: • Tillage • Land allocation • Changing farming or livelihood system Decisions more context- and farmer-specific • Sowing • Crop selection • Major capital • Irrigation • Household labor Information becomes more uncertain, hence more complex investment allocation, seasonal • Crop protection migration • Migration • • Technology selection • • • Therefore the scope of services needed increases Harvest • Family succession • Financing for inputs • Contract farming WEATHER HOURS DECADES DAYS … CLIMATE WEEKS MONTHS YEARS 6
  7. 7. Climate services in CCAFS Theme 2 Objective 2: Improved, climateFood System Risk Management informed responses Scale Fill key gaps: • Knowledge • Tools & Methods • Evidence • Capacity • Coordination Objective 1: Local Risk Management GENDER & EQITY LENS Enhanced support for managing risk Resilient food systems, Improved food security Objective 3: Climate Information and Services Climate-resilient rural livelihoods 7
  8. 8. CCAFS climate services experience Message 2: CCAFS is contributing to bringing climate services to smallholder farming and agricultural planning. 8
  9. 9. Piloting in Kenya, Senegal, … • • • • • Learning laboratory Improved information design Workshop process Evidence of what is possible Demand for scaling up 9
  10. 10. Climate services for government planning in Ethiopia • • • Engagement, analysis of subnational planning, budgeting process Social learning platform, testing, dissemination Targeted Outcome: climate-informed planning upstream of existing national emergency decision processes. 10
  11. 11. Training for agricultural extension, other intermediaries 11
  12. 12. Delivering through ICT and media 12
  13. 13. Tackling gender and social equity • • Women disadvantaged when scaling up climate services Ongoing project (U. Florida): • • • Knowledge of how women are disadvantages and how to overcome bias Protocol for identifying and addressing inequity in climate communication Gender challenges incorporated into training for intermediaries 13
  14. 14. Making climate information useful to farmers • • Spatial scale problem Beyond seasonal averages • • • • Onset, length Dry spells Growing, chill degree-days ? Challenges • • • Gaps in data Gaps in daily data Capacity of NMS 14
  15. 15. Making climate information useful to farmers • • • • Started in Ethiopia, with IRI, U. Reading, NMA, CCAFS Satellite + station, 10km grid, 30 year complete record “Maprooms” built on Data Library software Owned, implemented by NMS STATION BLENDED SATELLITE 15
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. ENACTS at NMS (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Madagascar, …), AGRHYMET Enables NMS to customize, generate and disseminate locally relevant climate information without over-taxing limited human resource 17
  18. 18. Pulling the pieces together: World Vision-Tanzania • • World’s largest development NGO Secure the Future Tanzania: • • • Reach ~1.7M farmers + pastoralists 66 ADP offices • • staff, partnership infrastructure Long-term commitment, where needed 18
  19. 19. Pulling the pieces together: GFCS in Tanzania, Malawi 19
  20. 20. Investing in Climate Services Message 3: The right investment, leveraging other efforts, can bring climate services to smallholder farmers – at scale 20
  21. 21. What can we leverage? • UN Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) • Climate Services Partnership (CSP) • ClimDev-Africa • Regional climate centers • CCAFS Theme 2 hosted by IRI 21
  22. 22. What else is needed? Key challenges • • • • • Salience: tailoring content, scale, format, lead-time to farm decision-making Legitimacy: giving farmers an effective voice in design and delivery Access: providing timely access to remote rural communities with marginal infrastructure Equity: ensuring that women, poor, socially marginalized benefit Integration: climate services as part of a larger package of support 22
  23. 23. What else is needed? Institutional arrangements • • • Limitations of supply-driven climate services Expand the boundary to agricultural research and development Expand the boundaries to give farmers a voice Co-owner (farmer) NMS (climate) INFORMATION PARTNERSHIP NMS (climate) NARES (agriculture) PARTNERSHIP VALUE-ADDED INFORMATION NARES User User (farmer) (farmer) (agriculture) CLIMATE SERVICE CLIMATE SERVICE 23
  24. 24. Suggestions for investing in climate services for agriculture • • • • • Address climate information supply, communication, use bottlenecks in parallel Improving information supply • • Low-hanging fruit for farmer-relevant climate information Caution about investing in observing infrastructure alone Two-fold path to communication capacity: • • Institutional: through agricultural extension, NGOs ICT and media Institutional coordination mechanisms. Who owns climate services for agriculture? Leverage and coordinate with GFCS, broader climate services community 24