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Herrero - Vulnerability and adaptation


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Mario Herrero, Household vulnerability assessment for rural livelihoods in (presentation from Adaptation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

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Herrero - Vulnerability and adaptation

  1. 1. Assessing household level vulnerability to climate changeM. Herrero, P. K. Thornton, P. Ericksen, M. Rufino, A. Notenbaert CCAFS Science Meeting Cancun, Mexico | 1-2 December 2010
  2. 2. Outline–  Background–  Some definitions–  Methodology–  Some results–  Future research
  3. 3. Systems are changing…  Population / Urbanization / Incomes / Diets  Increased competition for natural resources  Climate change –  warmer and  more variable  Trade / exchange of knowledge and products
  4. 4. The target is moving! An example of the changing nature of production systemsW. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
  5. 5. ..and then climate change….
  6. 6. An example of climate-induced livelihood transitions 20º Areas where cropping of an indicator cereal may 0º become unviable between now and 2050 and where farmers may have to rely more on livestock as a livelihood -20º strategyJones & Thornton (2008) 0º 20º 40º
  7. 7. A game of winners and losers…Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, bycountry and system Mixed Mixed Mixed National rainfed rainfed rainfed Production temperate humid arid 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - - Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4 Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7 Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1 Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3 Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario Winners Losers Thornton et al. (2010)
  8. 8. There are always trade-offs
  9. 9. Monthly calendar of different activities of the system Wa, Upper West, Ghana Dry Rainy Dry Weather calendar Groundnuts Yams Cropping calendar Sorghum Cut & Crop Critical Grazing Feeding calendar Carry residue Energy Prot. & Ene. Family’s nutrition Food security deficit deficit VeryHigh Low High Low High Low High Cash demands high Gonzalez-Estrada et al. 2006
  10. 10. ...from vulnerability mapping to assessing household level impacts... directly linked to adaptation options
  11. 11. Adaptation to climate change: definitionsIPCC (2007)Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effectsIPCC (2001)‘adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts’This implies implementation of:“processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate”
  12. 12. Adaptation options will dependlargely on the how we shape theworld•  Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions•  Lots of scenarios and uncertainty!•  Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)•  Globalisation and trade patterns•  Consumption patterns•  Carbon constraints•  Roles and incentives for technology adoption•  Growth in other sectors•  Power relationships
  13. 13. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences ILRI with the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) and The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)Thornton et al 2006
  14. 14. Climate Change Risk / Impact Vulnerability Different Biophysical Social scenarios of vulnerability vulnerability the future 14 indicators Changes in growing conditions to Data reduction analysis 2050  4 factors, combined into one “overall” vulnerability indicator Hot-spots Hot-spots Hot-spots of climate risk AND vulnerability
  15. 15. Assessing climate change Used the length of growing period as a proxy for agricultural impacts •  Calculate the water balance via available soil water, runoff, water deficiency (assume a soil water holding capacity of 100 mm) •  Count the number of days per year when the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration ratio (Ea/Et) > 0.5 and Tav > 9 °C
  16. 16. Where are the impacts? Assess the impact of climate change on agro- ecological characteristics by looking at changes in the length of growing period (LGP) Days Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006
  17. 17. Where are the impacts?Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006 % change in LGP
  18. 18. What systems are mostly affected? Livestock based systems Mixed irrigated systems Mixed rainfed systems Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006
  19. 19. 14 vulnerability indicators used in ILRI studyData at different scales: country, province, 18 km2 Physical capital •  Market access (ILRI) Social capital Natural capital •  Human poverty index (HDR) •  Crop suitability (FAO, GLC2000) •  Governance (World Bank) •  Soil degradation (GLASOD) •  Water availability (FAO Water Atlas) Human capital Financial capital •  Stunting (FAO, CIESIN) •  Infant mortality (CIESIN) •  Agriculture as % of GDP (World Bank) •  Wasting (CIESIN) •  Imports vs Exports (World Bank) •  Public health expenditure (HDR) •  Malaria risk (MARA) •  HIV/AIDS prevalence (HDR)
  20. 20. Areas within the LGA (arid-semiarid livestock) and MRA (arid-semiarid mixed)systems projected to undergo >20% reduction in LGP to 2050: HadCM3(Thornton et al 2006) A1 B1
  21. 21. Quartiles of the overall vulnerability indicatorMapped at systems level within each country. Quartile 1, “less vulnerable”; quartile 4, “more vulnerable” Thornton et al 2006
  22. 22. Synthesis of hot-spotsMRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems Highest vulnerability Second-highest vulnerability quartile (4) quartile (3) Possibly •  Some MRA systems in •  MRA, LGA systems in large parts of severe LGP Sahel Sahel loss (>20% to •  Mixed rainfed and highland •  Livestock systems and some mixed 2050) perennial systems in Great systems in parts of E and southern Lakes region of E Africa Africa •  LGA systems in parts of E •  Coastal systems in E and parts of Africa southern Africa Possibly •  Mixed systems in parts of E •  Coastal systems of parts of W Africa moderate LGP Africa •  Tree crop systems in parts of W loss (5-20% to Africa 2050) •  Forest-based systems in central Africa •  Root-based and root-mixed systems in south central AfricaUse such information as one input to evaluating trade-offs (e.g., numbers of poor versus density of poor) in relation to specific development criteria
  23. 23. CCAFS revisiting this work from a food securityperspective (P. Ericksen leading) •  Broaden the scope, and do from a food security perspective •  Use ensemble climate scenarios & variability •  Look at changes in vulnerability and food security in the future •  Don’t use a composite vulnerability indicator but look at the different dimensions • Using real impacts on crop and livestock production
  24. 24. Analysis of Food Security Outcomes COMPONENTS & Elements Food  Security,  i.e.  stability  over  4me  for:   FOOD   FOOD     UTILISATION   ACCESS   • Nutri.onal  Value   • Affordability   • Social  Value   • Alloca.on   • Food  Safety   • Preference   FOOD     AVAILABILITY   • Produc.on   • Distribu.on   • Exchange  
  25. 25. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES Under different scenarios per scenario Global Caribbean Production ++ Increase Food Safety Distribution + 0 Caribbean Order From Strength Decrease _Social Value Inter-Regional __ Exchange Caribbean TechnoGarden Nutritional Intra-Caribbean Value Exchange Caribbean Preference Affordability Adapting Mosaic Allocation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
  26. 26. Hazard exposure Vulnerability Hot-spots of global change to 2030, 2050 Hot-spots of change to 2030, 2050 Hot-spots of changes in hazard exposure & food system vulnerability to 2030, 2050
  27. 27. Addressing complexity Herrero et al, Science (2010)
  28. 28. Data collection + householdmodeling protocol :   Climate   Family structure   Land management   Livestock management   Labour allocation   Family’s dietary pattern Farm’s sales and   expenses Herrero et al 2007
  29. 29. Site: Sodo, EthiopiaWhat’s the likely impact of food/feed cropinterventions? Plot Crop Homestead Enset, coffee, kale, sweet potato, maize Plot1 Maize Plot 2 Sweet potato, wheat Plot 3 Maize Plot 4 Sweet potato Plot 5 Barley Plot 6 Maize Plot 7 Unimproved pastureLivestock: 1 cow, 1 ox Profit: Birr 2,381
  30. 30. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Current managementFood securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  31. 31. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 1 Application of fertilizer to Food crop maize plots.Food securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  32. 32. Site: Sodo, Ethiopia Intervention 2 Replace native grassland Feed crop with improved pasture.Food securityCow feedingLabour/capitalCashSoil fertility Critical Adequate
  33. 33. Research opportunities •  choice of indicators •  need large scale synthesis study looking at household-level impacts of adaptation •  incorporating risk and uncertainty •  scenarios and how to represent change in vulnerability status in the future • Equity issues and others that define the winners and losers (gender, location, power structures) • What are the options? • Upscaling issues (linking scales)
  34. 34. Thank you !For more information:m.herrero@cgiar.orgfly less, video-conference more…