Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Regional Development versus Global Mitigation: Insights from GLOBIOM

732 views

Published on

There are large demands for mitigation from the land use sectors, yet agriculture plays a key role in developing countries. Thus, trade-offs need to be considered in mitigation policy design. GLOBIOM is a model that addresses these trade-offs.

Published in: Science
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Regional Development versus Global Mitigation: Insights from GLOBIOM

  1. 1. Regional  Development  versus   Global  Mi2ga2on:   Insights  from  GLOBIOM   P.  Havlík,  N.  Forsell,  Y.  W.  Zhang,  U.  Kleinwechter   O.  Fricko,  K.  Riahi,  M.  Obersteiner       7th  Annual  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     Maryland,  17  November  2014    
  2. 2. Introduc2on   2  2   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Large  demands  for  mi2ga2on  from  the  land  use  sectors   }  Direct  non-­‐CO2  emissions  reduc2on   }  Avoided  CO2  emissions  and  carbon  sequestra2on   }  Biomass  for  energy   }  Agriculture  plays  a  key  role  in  developing  countries   }  Source  of  food  in  oYen  food  insecure  regions   }  Source  of  economic  growth   }  Trade-­‐offs  need  to  be  considered  in  mi2ga2on  policy  design  
  3. 3. Scenarios   3  3   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     SSP   RCP   SPA   REFL   SSP2   -­‐   -­‐   SPA0   SSP2   2p6   SPA0   SPA2   SSP2   2p6   SPA2   Preliminary  results:   Focus  on  2050  
  4. 4. Modeling  approach   4  4   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     Land:   GLOBIOM   Energy:   MESSAGE   “Look-­‐up   tables”   Common  drivers:  POP,  GDP,  storylines   CO2  price,  bioenergy  demand  
  5. 5. GLOBIOM   5  5   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng    
  6. 6. AFOLU  emissions  [MtCO2eq]   6  6   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  AFOLU  emissions  globally  to  reduced  by  50%  (40%  in  SPA2)  to  today   }  30%  of  reduc2on  coming  from  LAM  and  24%  from  AFR   }  The  propor2onal  contribu2on  does  not  change  between  SPAs  
  7. 7. Biomass  supply  for  bioenergy  [EJ  primary]   7  7   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Biomass  supply  for  bioenergy  to  DOUBLE  compared  to  reference   }  45%  to  come  from  LAM  and  17%  from  AFR   }  Poten2al  source  of  new  income  
  8. 8. Crop  produc2on  [tDM]   8  8   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Crop  produc2on  to  increase  by  87%  globally,  94%  in  LAM  and  255%  in  AFR   }  Increase  lower  by  22%  in  LAM  and  29%  in  AFR  under  SPA0   }  Increase  lower  by  13%  in  LAM  and  19%  in  AFR  under  SPA2  
  9. 9. Livestock  produc2on  [t  protein]   9  9   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Livestock  produc2on  to  increase  by  73%  globally,  107%  in  LAM  and  194%  in  AFR   }  Bovine  meat,  small  ruminant  meat,  and  small  ruminant  milk  produc2on  -­‐20%     }  Poultry  produc2on  -­‐6%   }  Increase  in  total  produc2on  lower  by  32%  in  LAM  and  39%  in  AFR  under  SPA0  
  10. 10. GHG  emissions  efficiency   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng    10   Herrero  et  al.  2013  
  11. 11. Beef  produc2on  systems  [%]   11  11   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Globally,  intensive  systems  share  increase  from  30%  to  40%  in  SPAs   }  In  AFR,  intensive  systems  represent  37%  under  mi2ga2on              compared  to  24%  in  the  baseline    
  12. 12. Industrial  round  wood  produc2on  [Mm3]   12  12   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Industrial  round  would  supply  to  increase  by  87%  between  2000  and  2050   }  Liile  effect  of  mi2ga2on  policie  (+/-­‐10%)   }  Incen2ves  for  sequestra2on  outweigh  bioenergy  demand  
  13. 13. Sectorial  revenue  and  CO2  tax  [billion  USD2000]   13  13   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Liile  effect  on  total  global  income,  forestry  benefits,  agriculture  looses   }  LAM:  +22%  (+16%  in  SPA2)  –  agriculture  and  forest  products  +  forest  carbon   }  AFR:  -­‐20%  (-­‐20%  in  SPA2)  –  losses  in  agriculture,  no  compensa2on  in  forests  
  14. 14. Ag  commodity  prices  (%  change  to  2000)   14  14   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Crop  price  increase  by  14%  (8%  in  SPA2),  by  9%  in  AFR  (5%  in  SPA2)   }  Livestock  price  increase  by  25%  (13%  in  SPA2),  by  47%  in  AFR  (30%  in  SPA2)   }  Opportunity  for  producer  threat  for  consumers  
  15. 15. Food  availability  (kcal/cap/day)   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng    15   }  In  REFL,  food  availability  in  AFR  increases  by  25%   }  Only  66%  of  increase  under  SPA0,  78%  under  SPA2   }  Developed  regions  much  less  affected  than  developing  
  16. 16. Total  abatement  calorie  cost  (TACC)   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng    16   Havlík  et  al.  2014  
  17. 17. Total  abatement  calorie  cost  (TACC)   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng    17   Havlík  et  al.  2014  
  18. 18. Conclusions   18  18   17/11/2014  Regional  Development  versus  Global  Mi2ga2on  -­‐  7th  IAMC  Annual  Mee2ng     }  Mi2ga2on  presents  opportuni2es  for  land  use  sectors   }  New  demands  (biomass)   }  Payments  for  carbon  sequestra2on   }  Higher  prices  (producers)   }  Mi2ga2on  presents  also  challenges   }  Higher  produc2on  cost   }  Restructuring  of  the  sectors   }  Higher  prices  (consumers)   }  Sectors  and  regions  affected  very  differently   }  Forestry  tends  to  benefit  and  agriculture  to  loose   }  Developed  regions  marginally  affected  and  least  developed   most  afected   }  How  to  make  mi2ga2on  work  for  least  developed  countries?  
  19. 19. Thank  you  !   havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at   www.globiom.org  

×