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Regional Development versus Global Mitigation: Insights from GLOBIOM
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There are large demands for mitigation from the land use sectors, yet agriculture plays a key role in developing countries. Thus, trade-offs need to be considered in mitigation policy design. GLOBIOM is a model that addresses these trade-offs.
CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
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Regional Development versus Global Mitigation: Insights from GLOBIOM
- Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on: Insights from GLOBIOM P. Havlík, N. Forsell, Y. W. Zhang, U. Kleinwechter O. Fricko, K. Riahi, M. Obersteiner 7th Annual IAMC Annual Mee2ng Maryland, 17 November 2014
- Introduc2on 2 2 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Large demands for mi2ga2on from the land use sectors } Direct non-‐CO2 emissions reduc2on } Avoided CO2 emissions and carbon sequestra2on } Biomass for energy } Agriculture plays a key role in developing countries } Source of food in oYen food insecure regions } Source of economic growth } Trade-‐offs need to be considered in mi2ga2on policy design
- Scenarios 3 3 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng SSP RCP SPA REFL SSP2 -‐ -‐ SPA0 SSP2 2p6 SPA0 SPA2 SSP2 2p6 SPA2 Preliminary results: Focus on 2050
- Modeling approach 4 4 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng Land: GLOBIOM Energy: MESSAGE “Look-‐up tables” Common drivers: POP, GDP, storylines CO2 price, bioenergy demand
- GLOBIOM 5 5 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng
- AFOLU emissions [MtCO2eq] 6 6 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } AFOLU emissions globally to reduced by 50% (40% in SPA2) to today } 30% of reduc2on coming from LAM and 24% from AFR } The propor2onal contribu2on does not change between SPAs
- Biomass supply for bioenergy [EJ primary] 7 7 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Biomass supply for bioenergy to DOUBLE compared to reference } 45% to come from LAM and 17% from AFR } Poten2al source of new income
- Crop produc2on [tDM] 8 8 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Crop produc2on to increase by 87% globally, 94% in LAM and 255% in AFR } Increase lower by 22% in LAM and 29% in AFR under SPA0 } Increase lower by 13% in LAM and 19% in AFR under SPA2
- Livestock produc2on [t protein] 9 9 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Livestock produc2on to increase by 73% globally, 107% in LAM and 194% in AFR } Bovine meat, small ruminant meat, and small ruminant milk produc2on -‐20% } Poultry produc2on -‐6% } Increase in total produc2on lower by 32% in LAM and 39% in AFR under SPA0
- GHG emissions efficiency 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng 10 Herrero et al. 2013
- Beef produc2on systems [%] 11 11 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Globally, intensive systems share increase from 30% to 40% in SPAs } In AFR, intensive systems represent 37% under mi2ga2on compared to 24% in the baseline
- Industrial round wood produc2on [Mm3] 12 12 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Industrial round would supply to increase by 87% between 2000 and 2050 } Liile effect of mi2ga2on policie (+/-‐10%) } Incen2ves for sequestra2on outweigh bioenergy demand
- Sectorial revenue and CO2 tax [billion USD2000] 13 13 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Liile effect on total global income, forestry benefits, agriculture looses } LAM: +22% (+16% in SPA2) – agriculture and forest products + forest carbon } AFR: -‐20% (-‐20% in SPA2) – losses in agriculture, no compensa2on in forests
- Ag commodity prices (% change to 2000) 14 14 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Crop price increase by 14% (8% in SPA2), by 9% in AFR (5% in SPA2) } Livestock price increase by 25% (13% in SPA2), by 47% in AFR (30% in SPA2) } Opportunity for producer threat for consumers
- Food availability (kcal/cap/day) 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng 15 } In REFL, food availability in AFR increases by 25% } Only 66% of increase under SPA0, 78% under SPA2 } Developed regions much less affected than developing
- Total abatement calorie cost (TACC) 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng 16 Havlík et al. 2014
- Total abatement calorie cost (TACC) 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng 17 Havlík et al. 2014
- Conclusions 18 18 17/11/2014 Regional Development versus Global Mi2ga2on -‐ 7th IAMC Annual Mee2ng } Mi2ga2on presents opportuni2es for land use sectors } New demands (biomass) } Payments for carbon sequestra2on } Higher prices (producers) } Mi2ga2on presents also challenges } Higher produc2on cost } Restructuring of the sectors } Higher prices (consumers) } Sectors and regions affected very differently } Forestry tends to benefit and agriculture to loose } Developed regions marginally affected and least developed most afected } How to make mi2ga2on work for least developed countries?
- Thank you ! havlikpt@iiasa.ac.at www.globiom.org
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