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World Bank: Economics of Impacts
of Climate Change (EACC) in Ethiopia
Gabrielle Kissinger

Session: Economic impact of cli...
Overview of World Bank EACC*
• Seven country case studies as part of
global study on adaptation costs
• Based on national ...
Ethiopia EACC
• Baseline: ambitious investment
program in dams, hydropower
development, irrigation, water
management, and ...
Ethiopia EACC
• Results: GDP losses are significant but diverse
across scenarios, highlighting the high degree of
vulnerab...
Ethiopia EACC
Ethiopia EACC
• Agriculture
Ethiopia EACC
Agric: Changes in crop yields given increasing municipal and
industrial and irrigation demands
Ethiopia EACC
Inter-sectoral analysis (agriculture, roads and
hydropower) under climate change scenarios:
• Agriculture at...
Key findings:
 Adaptation investments reduce, but do not completely
eliminate, economic losses under adaptation scenarios...
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[NAP Workshop] World Bank: Economics of Impacts of Climate Change (EACC) in Ethiopia

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A 2-day workshop hosted by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security www.ccafs.cgiar.org from 13-14 November, Warsaw, Poland brought together 37 representatives from 10 different countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America to share their lessons and experiences in developing climate adaptation plans for the agriculture sector.

For more information see: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture http://ow.ly/qSO1R
New report highlights lessons from national adaptation planning http://ow.ly/qSO2y

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[NAP Workshop] World Bank: Economics of Impacts of Climate Change (EACC) in Ethiopia

  1. 1. World Bank: Economics of Impacts of Climate Change (EACC) in Ethiopia Gabrielle Kissinger Session: Economic impact of climate risk National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and agriculture: A learning workshop CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) 13 - 14 November 2013, Warsaw, Poland
  2. 2. Overview of World Bank EACC* • Seven country case studies as part of global study on adaptation costs • Based on national data, disaggregated to more local and sector levels • Compare a no-climate change baseline (counterfactual) that reflects existing development plans with climate change scenarios. * World Bank (2010). Ethiopia - Economics of adaptation to climate change. Vol. 1. World Bank, Washington D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/2010/01/16279299/economics-adaptation-climate-change-ethiopia
  3. 3. Ethiopia EACC • Baseline: ambitious investment program in dams, hydropower development, irrigation, water management, and road building • Economy-wide impacts of climate change: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
  4. 4. Ethiopia EACC • Results: GDP losses are significant but diverse across scenarios, highlighting the high degree of vulnerability of Ethiopian agriculture and infrastructure to future climate shocks
  5. 5. Ethiopia EACC
  6. 6. Ethiopia EACC • Agriculture
  7. 7. Ethiopia EACC Agric: Changes in crop yields given increasing municipal and industrial and irrigation demands
  8. 8. Ethiopia EACC Inter-sectoral analysis (agriculture, roads and hydropower) under climate change scenarios: • Agriculture at greater risk than hydropower. • If priority given to hydropower, up to a billion cubic meters of water might be taken away from irrigated agriculture, causing a 30–40% yield drop across 250,000 hectares that would be forced to revert to rainfed conditions.
  9. 9. Key findings:  Adaptation investments reduce, but do not completely eliminate, economic losses under adaptation scenarios; that gains in economic well-being can be achieved at relatively low cost; and that adaptation lowers income variability.  The economic benefits of the adaptation strategy are significantly larger than the project-level costs of implementing it, resulting in benefit/cost ratios ranging from 5 to over 13.  Adaptation restores the variability of agriculture GDP growth close to the baseline scenario.  Due to the uncertainty of the future climate, a risk-based investment planning approach is recommended and robust decision-making principles are needed to minimise the “regrets” of climate-sensitive decisions (for instance, building costly dams may not be necessary under ‘wet’ climate change scenarios, but improved transport infrastructure is a sound investment under all scenarios).

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