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Dewi Luwes for nama Indonesia july 2012

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Presentation at CCAFS - FAO Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture

16 - 17 July 2012


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Dewi Luwes for nama Indonesia july 2012

  1. 1. Developing Local Action Plans for land-based NAMA in Indonesia with LUWES Sonya Dewi
  2. 2. REL and multiple schemes of emission reduction Unilateral emission reduction – land- based NAMA Internationally supported emission reduction – REDD+ C-trade emission transfer Net emissions from Indonesia 26% Reference Emission Level 15% 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Gt/y
  3. 3. Presidential Decree 61/2011 •Action plan to direct and indirect activities to reduce GHG emission appropriate to national development target -> regional development target •Guideline for Ministry/Institution in planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluation •Guideline for local government in setting up GHG regional action plan (RAD-GRK) •Guideline for community and private sectors in planning and implementing emission reduction. National Action Plan in reducing GHG (RAN-GRK) (26% target)
  4. 4. NAMA to LAMA •Strategy, program at the national level, implementation at subnational level •Local contexts: needs, constraints, challenges, opportunities •Fair and efficient: bottom up approach •Integration between development and mitigation- adaptation •BAU scenario to set REL •Payment distribution, funding mechanism •Planning capacity + authority -> accountability •Nested system, including MRV
  5. 5. Developing Provincial/District land-based Action Plan (RAD-GRK) 1.Identification and quantification of sources and drivers of land-based emission 2.Identification of potential of emission reduction and low hanging fruit 3.Development of baseline scenarios of land use-land use changes, and Reference Emission Level 4.List of GHG Emission Reduction Action Plan (core and supporting activities) 5.Priority of proposed action plan 6.Identification of institutional setting, sources of funding, measuring and monitoring activities for province action plan, which is an aggregate of district action plans
  6. 6. Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov RAD-GRK development Team Building Kick off meeting Data Collection BAU Baseline Calculation Submission of the Action Plan Determining priority Determining emission reduction target Developing implementation strategies Governor draft of Action Plan Meeting / Workshop : milestone ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ● ● ● ★ Government Agenda in Setting Up Province Action Plan (RAD-GRK) 2012
  7. 7. 8 Prioritization of GHG emission reduction activities from National Action Plan Province may propose subset of activities as those outlined in the National Action Plan (what), with details of “where and how much” and “how” Identification of development program/activities in regional strategies document (Renstra), regional development plan (RPJMD), regional budgeting (APBD), and vision of governor. Propose new appropriate activities from public institution, private, and any other communities, also with the details of “where, how much and how” Guidelines in Setting up Province/District Action Plan
  8. 8. How LUWES tool supports province/district action planning? •Concrete action planning •Away from project-to-project approach •Integrated landscape approach •What-if scenarios -> integrated decision making •Trade-off analysis: emission reduction vs … •Simple; capacity building is feasible •Negotiation platform •Bridging top-down and bottom-up -> refinement, feed back loop •Integrated multiple schemes •Green investment tools
  9. 9. LUWES in 6 steps •Step 1: Integration of current socio-economic conditions, development and spatial planning, tenure regime, biophysical and functional zones to identify planning units (multistakeholder discussions, spatial analysis) •Step 2: Estimation of Historical Land Use and Land Use Changes and their consequences to historic emission, (spatial analyses, C-stock appraisal, emission factor estimation)
  10. 10. LUWES in 6 steps •Step 3: Baseline Scenario development of LULUC and estimation of Reference Levels of Emissions (stakeholder discussions, modelling Land use/cover changes) •Step 4: Scenarios of emission reduction and projected emissions (ex-ante appraisal based on projected land use/cover) •Step 5: Trade-off analysis, scenario selection (ex-ante appraisal of opportunity cost vs reduced emissions, negotiation process of multiple stakeholders) •Step 6: Formulation of action plans including necessary instruments to implement the plans (multiple stakeholder process led by the local governments)
  11. 11. CASE STUDY: MERANGIN, JAMBI
  12. 12. Merangin watershed
  13. 13. •Multistakeholder discussions, •Data compilation, •Spatial analysis Step 1 Integration of current socio- economic conditions, development and spatial planning, functional zones to identify planning units
  14. 14. Analysis, discussions with stakeholders
  15. 15. Planning Units
  16. 16. Planning Units
  17. 17. •Spatial analyses •C-stock appraisal and emission factor estimation •Historic emission estimation using ABACUS Step 2 Estimation of Historical Land Use Changes and their consequences to Multiple Environmental Services (carbon storage, watershed function, biodiversity)
  18. 18. Land use/cover maps:1990-2010
  19. 19. ΔC Landscape Emission Factor Activity Data Annual changes in C-stocks in the landscape (ton C yr-1) ACTIVITY DATA Area of changes between each pairwise of landcover types (ha y-1) Changes in time-averaged C-stock between each pairwise of landcover types (ton C ha-1y-1) Stock-difference to estimate emissions
  20. 20. ID Land cover C-stock (ton/ha) 1 Undisturbed Forest 261.52 2 Logged over forest-high density 192.81 3 Logged over forest-low density 129.97 4 Timber Plantation 58 5 Agroforest 62.87 6 Estate 46.28 7 Shrub 43 8 Cropland 5.245 9 Grass 3.35 10 Bareland 3.35 11 Settlement 4.14
  21. 21. Carbon Density Maps of Batang Merangin Watershed • Total historic emissions • Emission shares of each planning unit • Emission shares of each land use changes and drivers
  22. 22. •Stakeholder discussions •Choices of linear projection, adjusted historic, forward looking scenarios •Projection can be done using ABACUS through: odriver modelling (spatially and non-spatially explicit), oexisting land use and development plan o or applying historic rate of changes Step 3 Baseline Scenario development of LULCC and estimation of Reference Levels of ES
  23. 23. Planning Unit Baseline scenario: Historical Projection Baseline scenario: Forward Looking Protected Forest Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Protection Forest Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Production Forest, non- permit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Production Forest, HTI Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Clear cut ALL and plant mono tree in the next five years Production Forest, HPH Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Logging in the next 10-15 years caused forest degradation Baseline Scenarios
  24. 24. Planning Unit Baseline Scenario: Historical Projection Baseline Scenario: Forward Looking Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 planting mono/Mixed tree(50:50) in low stock, low economical value APL, permit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next ten years APL, non-permit, downstream Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Clear cut and plant crop (increase the rates significantly from previous TPM) APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Baseline Scenarios (cont’d)
  25. 25. 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Cummulative net-emission (ton CO2- eq/ha) Historical Projection Forward looking To be negotiated, Under REL guideline Projected emissions based on BAU Scenarios
  26. 26. •Stakeholders discussions on emission reduction scenarios for each planning unit •ex-ante ES appraisal based on projected land use/cover using ABACUS •cost-benefit analysis using ABACUS •other valuation – multiplier effects Step 4 Emission reduction scenario development, estimation of ex-ante emissions and trade-offs
  27. 27. Planning Unit Scenario1: REDD+Moratorium Scenario2: REALU Protected Forest Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest, log low to high, high to UF 10% Protection Forest Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest Production Forest, non-permit Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest Production Forest, HTI Stop clear cut, only planting to mono tree Stop clear cut, only planting Production Forest, HPH Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD, LOF LD to Shrub) Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD) Emission Reduction Scenarios
  28. 28. Planning Unit Scenario3: REDD+Moratorium Scenario4: REALU Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock APL, permit Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next five years Clear cut (except UF) and plant mono tree in the next five years APL, non-permit, downstream Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical with higher C_stock APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit Clear cut and plant crop land (increase the rates significantly from rates of the previous period) Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical crop with higher C_stock APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to tree-based economical with higher C_stock APL, non-permit, upstream, not suit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010 Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to reforestation Emission Reduction Scenarios
  29. 29. 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 Cummulative net-emission (ton CO2- eq/ha) Historical Projection Forward looking REDD REALU Assumed as Agreed REL Ex-ante emission based on Scenarios Emission Reduction?
  30. 30. •negotiation process of multiple stakeholders Step 5 Trade-off analysis, strategy development
  31. 31. ID Land cover NPV ($/ha) 1 Undisturbed Forest 0.00 2 Logged over forest-high density 0.00 3 Logged over forest-low density 0.00 4 Timber Plantation 4392.33 5 Agroforest 1040.00 6 Estate 4948.67 7 Shrub 0.00 8 Cropland 25418.00 9 Grass 0.00 10 Bareland 0.00 11 Settlement 5787.00
  32. 32. Abatement cost curve 2005-2010
  33. 33. -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Historical Projection REDD+ REALU Average number of people/year Labor 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Historical Projection REDD+ REALU Cumulative ($/ha) Opportunity Cost 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Historical Projection REDD+ REALU Cumulative (tCO2-eq) Emission Reduction 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Historical Projection REDD+ REALU Cumulative ($/tCO2-eq) OppCost/Emission Reduction
  34. 34. •multiple stakeholder process led by the local governments Step 6 Formulation of action plans including necessary instruments to implement the plans
  35. 35. Planning Unit Emission reduction activities Potential emission reduction Issues Implementation strategy Forest Concession (HTI) Avoiding primary forest conversion to Acacia 1.63 Company Concession Suggest concession holder to preserve primary forest and disseminate Spatial Plan of Plantation Concession (Kepmenhut No. 70/KPTS- II/95), with reference to HCVF. Raw material for company Restrict any uses of raw material from primary forest Community to open forest area Strengthen monitoring and control activity in primary forest Preserve smallholders plantation from conversion to acacia 1.01 Limited community’s administation document of land tenure Implementing MOU betwen govenment, company, and community on forest border Plant acacia in shrub and grass area immediately 1.16 Limited company capacity to plant acacia as soon. Diseminate Act No. 7/ 1990 section 12
  36. 36. Planning Unit Emission reduction activities Potential emission reduction Issues Implementing strategy Oil Palm Concession Avoid conversion of primary forest and high density logged over forest to oil palm 3.36 Concession company (under authority of company) Oil palm concession holder to halt conversion of primary and logged over forest high density to oil palm as company’s participation in government’s emission reduction program, HCVF, market-based instrument (premium price), RSPO, ISPO Need of land to achieve company’s production target Land swap; partnerships with local people, intensification Protected Forest Management Unit (KPHLG) Preserve remaining forest 4.68 Community need of land in surrounding area Awareness raising of community on forest management Limited number of forest guards Increase the number of forest guards under Ministry of Forestry Plant Dyiera sp in the area 4.84 Limited understanding (technical and marketing) of Dyiera sp Technical assistance to community on Dyiera sp Limited budget to support Dyiera sp’s planting material. Involve the community on dyera sp planting Explore and Extent market HP Preserve primary forest 5.08 People need to land Campaign to community on forest management
  37. 37. Planning Unit Emission reduction activities Potential emission reduction Issues Implementing strategy Production Forest Preserve primary forest 5.08 The need for agricultural land Awareness raising on forest management to the community Limited number of forest guards Increase the number of staff Granting permit in the zone Propose to Ministry of forestry to halt other permit in the zone Facilitate establishment of forest management unit Law enforcement Plant rubber in non- forested area People preference to cultivate the land with commodity which is lower is C retention Make available rubber planting material Disseminate Production Forest management plan to the community Allocate land for village’s forest and other community based forest. Limited Production Forest Preserve primary forest 5.49 Encroachment Disseminate Limited Production Forest management plan to the community Limited number of forest guards Increase number of staff Mining permit within the panning unit Propose to Ministry of Forestry to halt other permit Facilitate establishment of forest production management unit law enforcement Plant rubber in non- 5.48 People preference to cultivate the land with commodity which is lower is C Promote rubber planting
  38. 38. Software and Tools •LUWES (Dewi et al., 2012) •http://ptf.com/download/redd_abacus_sp/6170299/ (Harja et al.) •http://www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/genriver_download (van Noordwijk et al.) •IDRISI Taiga •ArcGIS 10 •Fragstat 3
  39. 39. Thank you

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